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By: Doug Upstone
Congrats to Jon Rahm for a great performance at The Masters. The NBA playoffs are taking shape and we have the latest odds and a betting tip to use for future wagers. The pitch clock remains in the news, though there is less than one on average per game, however, this is one change that makes sense you didn’t see coming. This and our usual array of trends and free picks.
About Last Weekend…
Golf
Jon Rahm proved he was the best current player on the planet with a strong four-day effort. (We gave you Rahm as a Top 10 finisher) His steadiness of making pars once he seized the lead is what top players do.While the LIV Golf Twitter accounts were bragging about what a strong showing they had with three of the Top 5 finishers with Phil Mickelson, Brooks Koepka, and Patrick Reed, one can make two clear observations. First, less than two years ago they were fixtures on the PGA Tour so it wasn’t like they were bad players and the excitement of playing in an event like this cannot be recreated on their tour of choice.
NBA
The NBA Playoffs and play-in games are ready, there will be some excellent opening series like #3 Sacramento vs. #6 Golden State, #4 Phoenix vs. #5 L.A. Clippers, and #4 Cleveland vs. #5 New York.The buy-in games will be interesting for betting purposes if not overly compelling in the big picture.
We have betting odds that will explain a great deal below.
MLB
The Tampa Bay Rays are 9-0 and crushing everyone in their path. The Rays are winning by an unfathomable 6.2 runs a game and don’t listen to anyone that says they have played an easy schedule. Since 1900, let’s take a guess and say there have been others that started against teams they should beat, but nobody has done what Tampa Bay has accomplished.And there is this.
NHL
The Boston Bruins have set the record for the most wins in an NHL season and they are two points away from setting the record for the most points in a season. A remarkable season for the team that was thought to be past its prime a year ago at this time. Jim Montgomery has done a remarkable job in his first year in Bean-Town.Trendy Talk
MLB
- Baltimore is 22-11 after two or more consecutive losses since last season.
- Tampa Bay is 17-5 as hosts vs. Boston.
- Atlanta is 19-4 having lost three of their last four games.
- Julio Urias and the Dodgers are 10-2 Under as a favorite of -125 to -175 the last two seasons.
- Alek Manoah is 13-3 Under vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game since 2021. (Tuesday)
NBA
- Atlanta is 11-3 Over in a road game when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season. (Tuesday)
- Minnesota is 4-13 ATS after three straight games where they made 47% or more of their shots. (Tuesday)
- Toronto is 15-6 ATS when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season. (Wednesday)
- Oklahoma City is 19-8 ATS when playing with two days' rest. (Wednesday)
NHL
- Calgary is 2-11 (-15.8 Units) after losing their previous game in overtime this season.
- Seattle is 9-0 in road games after scoring three goals or more in four straight games.
- Winnipeg is 13-1 Under playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season.
- Toronto is 12-3 Over off a home win by two goals or more.
- Winnipeg is 10-0 Under in road games revenging a loss where the opponent scored four or more goals. (Tuesday)
What to Watch For and Win (Hopefully)
MLB
With us getting a little deeper into the baseball season, we will start having more game MLB picks covering a variety of bets that we are sure you find interesting. This plus our usual array of prop bets and parlays.NBA
The NBA play-in games start Tuesday and we will have the first four contests covered in all facets for your NBA picks.NHL
Just five days left in the hockey regular season and there is still a lot of uncertainty about seeding for the playoffs, we’ll cover it all and have our best bets and more.Soccer
Starting Tuesday it is UEFA Champions League Quarter Finals Leg 1 and we will have an in-depth analysis of the best soccer picks.The Buzz
NBA – Odds to Win Championship (From BetOnline)
- Milwaukee Bucks (+275)
- Boston Celtics (+350)
- Phoenix Suns (+425)
- Golden State Warriors (+750)
- Denver Nuggets (+1000)
- Philadelphia 76ers (+1000)
- Los Angeles Lakers (+1200)
- Memphis Grizzlies (+2200)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (+4000)
- Los Angeles Clippers (+4000)
- Sacramento Kings (+5000)
Two things of note, in the West, Denver, the top seed in the West, only has the 5th best odds to win the championship, with Phoenix and Golden State ahead of them.
Additionally, if you are thinking of making a futures bet on the championship, only twice in the history of the NBA has a team not seeded in the Top 3 won the title. (#4 Boston -1969 and #6 Houston -1995).
MLB – Bad Break for Pittsburgh
Pirates’ shortstop Oneil Cruz fractured his ankle during a collision at the plate yesterday, in which he took an awkward slide going into home plate. No word on how long Cruz will be out, however, the chances of Pittsburgh maintaining a surprising 6-3 start seem slim at best. Reports suggest August 10th if all goes well.NFL – Odell Beckham Jr. a Raven
In a rather stunning move, Beckham signed with Baltimore. He’s not the player he used to be but can still be highly effective. He is going to a team that has yet to sign their franchise quarterback in an offense that has been run-oriented with Lamar Jackson. Curious.Top Betting System
MLB – Royals vs. Rangers (-170)
Play Against AL road teams like Kansas City which are poor offensively, scoring 4.2 or fewer runs a game, against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA of 3.33 or lower), after two straight games where they stranded five or less runners on base. That few runners left on base is a sign of a weak offense and since 2019, teams like Kansas City are 4-30 in this spot.Out the Door
NBA – Question For You
Is it worse to tank for one game like the Dallas Mavericks did last Friday or for a whole season like many NBA teams have done over the last decade?MLB – Another Consequence of the Pitch Clock
Baseball wanted to speed up games with the pitch clock and generally speaking most are in favor of it. There are always unintended consequences when change occurs. The Milwaukee Brewers (of course) are making an adjustment as you can read here with faster games.NBA – Warriors Solid Favorites Over Kings
Defending champion Golden State has the 4th lowest odds to be champions again and they are -265 faves to knock out Sacramento in their series with the Kings, who lack in postseason experience. But do you want to back a team that was 11-30 on the road and 13-28 ATS this season?We are not saying the Warriors’ championship pedigree won’t shine through, yet backing them to win the series and on the road?
What Bettors Like – Play or Fade?
NHL Top 5 Bets by Percentage - Highest First (29-23 record and 5-2 move)
- Kraken
- Jets
- Kings
- Islanders/Capitals Over
- Rangers
MLB - Top 5 Bets by Percentage - Highest First (10-6 record)
- Reds Sox/Rays Over
- Orioles
- Royals/Rangers Over
- Angels
- Nationals/Angels Over
NBA Top 1 Bet by Percentage - Highest First (36-24-1 record 16-6 run)
- Lakers
Let’s get some winners! See you back here Wednesday.
