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By: Doug Upstone
A wild Tuesday evening in playoff competition involving the NBA and NHL where underdogs cleaned up. The Tampa Bay Rays finally dropped their first home game and that season-opening streak is only surpassed by something that occurred 139 years ago (not a misprint).
This and news on Aaron Rodgers, the Deion Sanders football program, betting in Nevada, and seemingly nobody liking the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.
About Last Night…
Playoffs
Four teams in the NBA and NHL playoffs failed to cover spreads or money lines when they could have wrapped up their series and only two won outright.NBA
During the regular season on any given night, if you had three double-digit underdogs playing, any NBA bettor would take a hard look at the underdogs looking to make a case to back them. Last night, the public and most sharps could not make a case for the underdogs despite the big numbers, which could have closed out all three series.Instead, the chalky favorites played uninspired and let their opponents stay in the game. Boston, who had looked like the best team in the playoffs just days ago, was upset again by Atlanta and they will have a tough Game 6 assignment Thursday.
Frankly, we don’t understand the logic of not coming to play to win a series up 3-1. Jump on the other team in the first quarter and take away their will to compete. It’s just a mindset.
NHL
Carolina looked like an NBA team with a chance to wrap up their series and gave up a careless first goal and an unlucky second one (puck hits Hurricanes player in the face, hangs in the air, and Islanders player swings at it from three feet away and it goes in the net), giving them a 2-0 which New York made hold up as +140 road underdogs.Minnesota and Edmonton held serve in Game 5 with decisive victories and are headed on the road for Game 6 to win their series.
MLB
As we said before the season, the NL Central was not a great division, and the winner, which was presumed to be St. Louis, might not win 90 games. Though it is only April, the Cardinals are tied for last in their division at 9-15 with Cincinnati and it’s been a long time since the Redbirds started this badly.Tampa Bay finally suffered their first home loss last night, 5-0 to Houston. Their 14-0 start was the best of the modern era (1900) and this is a team that has all the components if they can get their starting staff healthy this season.
Pittsburgh saw their seven-game win streak snapped in what could only be described as - Pirates fashion - given their history over the past three decades. The Bucs were ahead 7-2 over the Dodgers, never scored after the fourth innings, and their potent bullpen had an off night and L.A. scored six times for the 8-7 shocker as -110 favorites.
Trendy Talk
NBA
- Cleveland is 13-3 Under after a combined score of 205 points or less in three straight games.
- Memphis is 11-3 Under after two or more consecutive losses this season.
- Milwaukee is 10-2 Over after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games.
- Golden State is 3-11 ATS as a road favorite of six points or less this season.
- Atlanta is 6-20 ATS after a win by 6 points or less. (Thursday)
NHL
- Boston is 18-6 against teams averaging 3+ more shots on goal than foes this season.
- Seattle is 11-4 Under playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) this season.
- N.Y. Rangers are 12-3 revenging two consecutive losses as a favorite. (Thursday)
- Tampa Bay is 7-14 after allowing five goals or more this season. (Thursday)
- Vegas is 13-3 ATS after three or more consecutive Overs. (Thursday)
MLB
- Chicago Cubs are 2-14 playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) the last two seasons.
- Houston is 34-10 vs. AL teams allowing 3.9 or less runs a game.
- Oakland is 9-0 Over as a road underdog of +175 to +250 this season.
- Philadelphia is 24-7 Under revenging a loss as a home favorite.
- Kyle Wright and the Braves are 25-3 as a favorite of -110 or higher.
What to Watch For and Win (Hopefully)
NBA
The NBA Playoffs continue with four big contests on Wednesday and a surprise Game 6 with the Celtics vs. Hawks. Review all our top opinions and NBA picks.MLB
Look for nine different free MLB picks for Wednesday and Thursday along with parlays and other top props wagers, all for free.NHL
We begin to get deeper into various series for Round 1 and we separate the pretenders from those who are moving on to the conference semifinals. Watch for all our free NHL picks.NFL Draft
The NFL Draft starts Thursday and it has been a wild last week as rumors are flying about who goes where. Review our best NFL value picks right here.Golf
Check our Mexico Open analysis and betting preview for this week’s tournament. Of course, you’ll want to view our free picks.The Buzz
NBA - The Suns Devin Booker Had Himself a Series
NFL - Aaron Rodgers Traded and Does This Look Odd
Both Green Bay and the New York Jets got what they wanted with the trade of Aaron Rodgers. At a minimum, the Jets have to reach the AFC championship and the Packers have to draft wisely with their top picks.
On the surface, the Pack appeared to get the better of the deal long term, but only if the picks work out.
NBA - Almost Nobody Backing the Bucks in Game 5
Though down 3-1 in their series with Miami, Milwaukee is a 12-point home favorite to win tonight. At various sportsbooks both in the U.S. and offshore, there is heavy action on the Heat to cover.That is the biggest point spread for a team trailing 3-1 in a series since Dallas was -9 vs. Golden State in 2007 (won by 6).
College Football - This Is Outrageous for Colorado Football and Any Program
Top Betting System
MLB - Astros vs. Rays (-115 ML)
Play On home teams like Tampa Bay with a slugging percentage of .450 or higher, against an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or lower, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter in the last outing. Since 2019, teams like the Rays are a superb 30-7.Out the Door
Gambling – Nevada Winning Streak Continues
Golf - Bryson DeChambeau Comedy Act
DeChambeau said this week. “You should realize that the OWGR is not accurate, one," DeChambeau said. "Two, I think that they need to come to a resolution or it will become obsolete. It's pretty much almost obsolete as of right now. But again, if the Majors and everything continue to have that as their ranking system, then they are biting it quite heavily.”This is from a guy whose highest finish is T16th in four LIV events this season (just 48 golfers and no cut) and he missed the cut at the Masters.
Sports - We Like This
https://twitter.com/JoePompliano/status/1651263289572089856?s=20What Bettors Like - Play or Fade?
NBA Top 3 Bets by Percentage - Highest First (49-31-1 record 29-13 run)
- Heat/Bucks Over
- Lakers/Grizzlies Over
- Knicks/Cavaliers Over
MLB - Top 4 Bets by Percentage - Highest First (32-19 record)
- Angels (night games only)
- Mets
- Dodgers/Pirates Over
- Cardinals/Giants Over
NHL Top 4 Bet by Percentage - Highest First (46-32 record and 22-11 move)
- Bruins
- Avalanche
- Golden Knights (highest for Thursday)
- Maple Leafs
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