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By: Doug Upstone
Tonight, we get Part 2 of the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament and if it is as good as last night, we are again in for a treat. Have you heard about baseball doing away with the shift? Well, it’s not completely gone as we explain. Tom Brady is now a sports team owner and we break down a common NBA betting mistake. This, top trends, free picks, and more.
About Last Night…
March Madness – Sweet 16
Kansas State and Michigan State put on an offensive showcase that was fun to watch. Big shot after big shot made, with K-State shooting 55.9% and Sparty at 49.2%. The Wildcats Markquis Nowell is remarkable and did this.The difference in the outcome, the Spartans had 13 turnovers, and the Wildcats had 5.
Florida Atlantic had never won an NCAA tournament game and now has three after upsetting Tennessee. The Vols returned to their inconsistent ways and the Owls made them pay for that. Crazy to think Conference USA has an Elite 8 club and two teams in the NIT semifinals.
Talk about dominating! Connecticut buried Arkansas from the get-go and won by 25. The Huskies have won each of its first three games by 15 or more points and the last time they did was in 2004 when they won a national championship.
UCLA played a great first half in building a 13-point lead over Gonzaga. In the second half, the Zags’ defense improved and they limited the Bruins’ offense UCLA missed center Adem Bona terribly as they had nobody to contain Drew Timme, who had 36 points. A hard way for UCLA to go out, they might have been the best team in the tourney if they were healthy.
Look at the symmetry in the Bulldogs vs Bruins encounter.
NBA
One of the most overhyped aspects of betting on the NBA is player injury or “management”. If a player is injured and whether it is one game or 10, infrequently that does have much of an impact in the next contest.A case in point was Paul George being out after being hurt against Oklahoma City. The Clippers were -7 when they lost to the Thunder Tuesday 101-100 and opened at -4 yesterday. Later in the day sharp money was on the Clips and they closed at -5 betting odds. Final score, the Clippers won 127-105. Don’t overreact to injuries, especially in the NBA for a game.
NHL – Revenge
We mentioned Wednesday that the New York Rangers gave up two third-period leads to Carolina at home and lost 3-2. The squads had a rematch in Raleigh in what appeared a tough spot for the Blueshirts.New York sucked it up despite being down 1-0 early. Goalie Igor Shesterkin was brilliant thereafter, holding the Hurricanes scoreless and they scored twice to win 2-1 as +130 road underdogs and they are within four points of tying New Jersey for second place in the Metro.
Trendy Talk
NCAAB
- San Diego St. is 13-2 Under having won 15 or more of their last 20 games.
- Houston is 8-2 Over having won three of their last four games.
- Princeton is 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
- Texas is 6-0-1 ATS in March games.
- Florida Atlantic is 10-1 Over after a combined score of 125 points or less.
- Gonzaga is 0-6 ATS in a neutral court game when the total is 150 to 154.5.
NBA
- San Antonio is 1-11 ATS revenging a home loss of 10 points or more.
- Detroit is 4-21 ATS when playing with triple revenge.
- Indiana is 12-2 Over playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) in the 2nd half of the season since last year.
- Chicago is 1-8 ATS as a road favorite of six points or less this season.
NHL
- Columbus is 0-8 off a road win this season.
- Buffalo is 0-9 in home games against teams outscoring opponents by 0.65+ goals a game.
- Washington is 0-9 after a win by four goals or more this season.
- Ottawa is 10-3 (+14.0 Units) off a home win against a division rival the last two seasons.
What to Watch For and Win (Hopefully)
March Madness
Tonight we wrap up the Sweet 16 portion of the tournament and turn our attention to the Elite 8 on the weekend. Look for our best NCAAB picks for all the games.NBA
Catch all our best bets and top props in the NBA.NHL
Though Arizona vs. Colorado looks like a complete mismatch, learn what our hockey expert has in all facets of this contest Friday.UFC
UFC Vegas 72 is ready and so are we with a sharp UFC parlay and prop wagers.Soccer
We have this weekend's soccer best bets and top props.XFL
The second half of the season goes this week in Week 6 of the XFL and we deliver our top picks.Horse Racing
We are six weeks from the Kentucky Derby and Saturday is a top prep race, the Louisiana Derby. See what horses to bet on.The Buzz
MLB – No Infield Shift, But Shift Still Alive
With the infield shift eliminated in the big leagues, we are starting to see creative ways to stop dead pull hitters. I’ve seen this a couple of times in games in Arizona and here is what Boston did against Joey Gallo.In the picture, the center or right fielder can drop into short right and the other fielder plays in right-center. The left fielder can move left center or almost straight center field depending on the hitter's tendencies.
The reward is obvious and so is the risk because a lefty batter who can hook one into the right field corner will have at least a triple. Or if a pitcher makes a mistake away, the same hitter can punch the ball down the leftfield line with the same result. This will be compelling to watch when applied.
MLB – Tough Loss for the Phillies
Rhys Hoskins suffered a left knee ligament tear that will require ACL reconstruction surgery and be lost for the season. It was a non-contact injury as he went to field a ball at first base in which he got his body in an odd position.On Twitter, there was the usual cry to shut down Spring Training but the fact is this could have happened in Philadelphia’s season-opener. That’s a big bat out of the Phillies lineup.
WNBA – Tom Brady an Owner
Tom Brady purchased an undetermined amount of the Las Vegas Aces this week. Brady loves to win and the Aces are favored to win the title this upcoming season at U.S. betting sites.Top Betting System
Elite Eight – Gonzaga vs. Connecticut (-2)
Play on neutral court teams as a favorite like Connecticut after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, against an opponent after beating the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. This system is 23-5 ATS, with teams like the Huskies winning by 10.4 PPG.Out the Door
NCAAB – Another Example of the Big Ten Being Overrated
The Big Ten has sent 26 teams to the last three NCAA Tournaments. Only one has advanced to the Elite Eight. The same as Conference USA with fewer entrants.MLB – 22 Years Ago Today
Has it really been 22 years since we have seen this? Amazing!March Madness– A Change in Totals
After the Unders absolutely dominated the tournament to this point, the first four Sweet 16 games were 3-1 Over, does that continue tonight?
March Madness – My 3 Cents (Inflation)
You might have heard coaches and the media saying the NCAA made a mistake in using a brand new basketball which makes the ball supposedly more sticky and the same balls are too inflated, which is why the scores have been so low and three-point shooting atrocious (low 20s percentage).Maybe there is some truth in parts of this, nonetheless, not the real reason. If you watch the games, players are taking deeper and deeper threes, naturally, the percentage will go down with longer attempts. Next, a supposed more inflated ball that is stickier might make a few attempts to go short or long, but left or right, that’s operator error.
What Bettors Like – Play or Fade?
NBA Top 5 Bets by Percentage (highest first) (24-23-1 record)
- Mavericks
- Wizards
- Kings
- Celtics
- Pacers/Celtics Over
NCAAB Top 2 Bet by Percentage (highest first) (22-23-1 record)
- Miami/Houston Over
- Xavier/Texas Over
NHL Top 2 Bets by Percentage (highest first) (19-18 record)
- Islanders
- Avalanche
