BMR Social
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By: Doug Upstone
Let’s face it, today is all about March Madness and filling out bracket(s), and getting ready to bet on college basketball. We have lots to share another way to make money betting college basketball that can work for the hard-working bettor. This and a large variety of other important news and info on a Monday.
About Last Weekend…
March Madness
We have 68 teams ready to commence action on Tuesday with the First Four followed by 16 terrific games on Thursday and 16 more on Sunday.Some were surprised Alabama got the No. 1 overall seed over Kansas. Yet, the Jayhawks lost twice by double digits to Texas in a week. The Crimson Tide ended the season as the best team and should have been ranked that high.
It was surprising to see Texas A&M be a #7 seed because the SEC was the second-best conference in college basketball and the Aggies were 15-3 and made the title game. Plus, they drew a tough assignment at Penn State. The Aggies are excellent on defense but they allow opponents to shoot threes and the Nittany Lions take them and make them.
Xavier as a #3 seed feels higher, though not way off.
From this seat, we agree with Dick Vitale, we would rather have Toledo, North Texas, and Bradley in the tournament for winning their regular season conference or finishing 2nd and at least getting to the semis of their respective tournaments, than West Virginia, N.C. State, Miss. State or Auburn, who were mediocre clubs in their conferences.
Nonetheless, we understand how the whole Quad 1 nonsense works, it favors the power conferences because that’s who generates the biggest dollars.
NBA
What’s wrong with the Denver Nuggets? Denver has lost three in a row and is on a 0-4 ATS slide. If they were facing a group of other teams with outstanding records that could happen. However, in their last three defeats, only Brooklyn had a winning record, falling to Chicago by 21 at home, the Nets by 2 at home, and completely disinterested in losing at lowly San Antonio by 8.The culprit, lazy defense as each team has shot 50% or higher. We get the season is dragging on and once April arrives it's playoff time for Denver, but losing to these opponents is unacceptable.
Trendy Talk
NCAAB
All Tuesday (the first two are Play-in games and the others are NIT)- Texas A&M CC is 11-3 Over in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games
- Pittsburgh is 11-4 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by 4+ points a game this season. Or, Mississippi St. is 6-0 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more.
- Rutgers is 8-1 ATS versus teams making 48% or more of their shots.
- Wisconsin is 1-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games this season.
- Southern Miss is 1-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.
NBA
- Atlanta is 8-23 ATS after playing a home game this season.
- Indiana is 17-6 ATS having won two of their last three games.
- Golden State is 32-13 ATS at home when playing against a team with a winning record since last season.
- Memphis is 11-2 Under on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season.
NHL
- Toronto is 18-5 Over after a home game where both teams score three or more goals.
- Dallas is 10-2 Over against weaker starting goalies saving 89.5% or fewer of shots against.
- Tampa Bay is 2-9 when playing six or more games in 10 days this season. (Tuesday)
- Washington is 0-8 line after a blowout win by four goals or more. (Tuesday)
What to Watch For and Win (Hopefully)
March Madness
The brackets are loaded and it’s time to go to work. We’ll have all the First Four games previews for Tuesday and Wednesday, along with free NCAAB picks for you, plus, other keep games for Thursday.NBA
We have some hot Best Bets and prop picks for you on Monday and Tuesday.NHL
Time to heat up the ice with our early week Best Bets and prop choices. With Tuesday’s heavier slate, we also will include a sharp parlay pick for free!MLB
We’re just 17 days away from the start of another great season of baseball and we keep adding new material and free MLB picks for you to get you ready for spring and summer of betting action.The Buzz
March Madness – Betting Favorites in Opening Round Isn’t Cool Anymore
Sportsbooks used to get beat up on Thursday and Friday (beat up means not making as much money as usual) of the NCAA Tournament. Roughly a decade ago they all but eliminated any value on underdogs, especially if they are seeded #10 thru #13. I believe this is an accurate statement from former sportsbook director Todd Furman.NFL – Chicago Bears Building a New Future
The Bears have committed to Justin Fields by trading for the first overall pick to Carolina. Chicago now has four picks in the top 65 this year and two first-rounders in 2024.WBC – You Still Need Pitching
The U.S. has a terrific roster, but as Mexico proved before a sellout crowd Sunday night, you still need pitching, as they routed the U.S. 11-5.NFL – Dolphins Continue To Add Pieces
Miami traded Jalen Ramsey, for a third-round pick and tight end Hunter Long. The Fins remain committed to winning.NCCAB – North Carolina Blows Off NIT
After a season immensely below expectations, North Carolina earned their way to play in the. Instead of doing what many would consider the right thing, the Tar Heels are skipping the NIT to “start preparing for next season.”North Carolina has to do what they feel best. We’ll just add the UNC football team went to the Mayo and Holiday bowls the past two years, so we guess they weren’t too proud to play in something bigger.
NFL – Breaking News
Jimmy G in Silver and Black.https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35851697/raiders-fill-qb-need-jimmy-garoppolo-sources-say
Top Betting System
NBA – Jazz vs. Miami (-8)
In the NBA on Monday, Play On road underdogs like Utah, revenging a close loss of three points or less against an opponent off an upset loss as a favorite. Since 2018, teams like the Jazz are 34-9 ATS, losing by less than a point a game (-0.9).Out the Door
March Madness – Prediction
In a wild season, only one No. 1 seed makes the Final Four.March Madness – Be Careful
At this point, most agree, Alabama is the best team in the field and they have the fewest flaws and most ways to win if they are having an off game. I saw this yesterday on CBS during their Selection Show and forget the year, but in the last 12 to 15 years, only three true top seeds have gone on to win the tournament.March Madness – Best Advice for Filling Out a Bracket
Pick your Final 4 first and complete it forward to name a champion. Then work backward from your Final Four picks. This keeps you grounded and takes out some of the guesswork.Currently, 12 of the first 34 games have betting bets of three points or less. How many underdogs do you have covering and or winning outright?
NCAAB – Don’t Forget the Minor Tournaments
While the NIT and other postseason tournaments won’t attract the same attention, there is often great value, especially in the opening rounds of these tourneys if you take the time to understand who does or does not want to play in these.What Bettors Like – Play or Fade?
NBA Top 3 Bets by Percentage - Highest First (15-13 record)
- Pacers
- Celtics
- Grizzlies/Mavericks Over
Let’s get some winners! See you back here Wednesday.
