BMR Social
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By: Doug Upstone
Once again, we saw why the NCAA Tournament is so enjoyable and maddening at the same time. We offer our thoughts to recap.
There was other news in basketball and you should look for this before the next Washington Wizards game as we explain. Plus, Coach John Calipari’s seat might be getting warm, along with how the best sportsbooks did this weekend.
About Last Weekend…
March Madness
Not going to rehash much of what you saw over the weekend and rather try and keep it as fresh as possible.Going into the Sweet 16, Conference USA has one team (FAU), the Ivy League has one team (Princeton), as does the Big Ten (Mich. State), though the Big Ten had eight invitations. When (if) will people start giving the Big Ten its true rankings? They should have no more than five bids because conference champions from mid-majors or lower can lose just as easily as the Big Ten in the first two rounds.
Favorites are 26-25-1 ATS for the entire tournament and Unders are an outrageous 35-17.
There have been 16 outright upsets, which is tied for the 7th-most since the field was expanded to 64 or more teams in 1985.
Thanks to Fairleigh Dickinson for adding to our enjoyment and equal thanks to Purdue for taking the crown being the biggest upset victim of the tournament, as a complete no-show.
Finally, if you had Gonzaga Sunday night, we hope you were in bed in the Eastern or Central time zones, because those in the Mountain or West got to experience this live.
NBA
On Saturday, the Washington Wizards lost at home to Sacramento by 14 points as 4.5-point underdogs. It is worth noting going forward, the SU winner of a Wizards game is on a 41-0 ATS run! Make your decision about who will win or lose and bet accordingly.NHL
The New York Rangers have won four in a row and after being tied in the third period by Pittsburgh on Thursday night, they scored twice more against the Penguins and had two shutouts (6-0 & 7-0) in their next two contests and are on 15-0 scoring run.Trendy Talk
NCAAB
- San Jose St. is 8-2 ATS as a favorite this season.
- Milwaukee is 7-1 Over after covering three of their last four against the spread.
- N. Texas is 10-3 Over in road games after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games. (Tuesday)
- Wisconsin is 6-15 ATS after three straight games committing 11 or less turnovers. (Tuesday)
- Vanderbilt is 13-3 ATS after playing two consecutive home games. (Wednesday)
- Cincinnati is 11-4 ATS after covering three of their last four against the spread. (Wednesday)
- Kansas St. is 9-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. (Thursday)
- Connecticut is 6-0 Over after allowing 55 points or less this season. (Thursday)
NBA
- Philadelphia is 20-5 ATS revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100 or more points this season.
- Charlotte is 6-21 ATS versus three-point shooting teams making 36% or more of their attempts.
- Utah is 9-0 ATS as a home underdog this season.
- Minnesota is 14-1 Over in road games when playing their 3rd game in four days.
NHL
- Calgary is 2-10 (-14.6 Units) after losing their previous game in overtime this season.
- San Jose is 10-32 against teams allowing 3+ goals a game.
- Edmonton is 21-6 Over playing against a team with a losing record.
- St. Louis is 20-5 Over in non-conference games this season.
What to Watch For and Win (Hopefully)
March Madness
A good portion of the madness is over and we are down to the Sweet 16 which starts Thursday, and we already have a couple of games for you to preview. Until then, we have the CBI and NIT tournaments as a great betting distraction until then for your NCAAB picks!NBA
Time to fire up for our best bets and top props on Monday and Tuesday for playoff positioning as that becomes so important.NHL
Division slotting and figuring out who the wild cards are for the playoff are important as we start the week by offering our best bets and top prop picks.MLB
Are we just 10 days away from the start of another great season of baseball? Read or watch all of our latest material and free MLB picks for you to get ready for spring and summer of betting action.The Buzz
Sports Betting - Sportsbooks Cleaning Up
With the proliferation of low scores and upsets in the tournament, especially to so many higher seeds, the sportsbooks have counted the cash and then some. Almost every article we have read has mentioned a heavy volume of bets, thus, it doesn’t take a math major to figure out how the books have done.March Madness – Gonzaga Marches On Again
NCAAB – Kentucky Fans Clamoring for Calipari to Be Fired
With yesterday’s loss, in the past three years, Kentucky has had a losing season, a first-round exit, and a second-round exit. Every great high school player wanted to go there when John Calipari was riding high in Lexington. That is no longer the case with the transfer portal, NIL money and other factors are in play.Kentucky still gets its share of very good talent, but Brandon Miller and Keyonte George, certain top NBA picks, are making a name for themselves elsewhere.
Calipari has not forgotten how to coach, but he’s been a little slow to adjust his offense and really needs a point guard who cannot only shoot but run the offense to get everyone involved.
If Kentucky would can him, Coach Cal would have a top-notch job within days.
Top Betting System
NCAAB – North Texas vs. Oklahoma State (Total 124)
Play Over on teams like North Texas when the total is between 120 and 129.5 points in a game involving two excellent defensive teams holding opponents below 40% shooting, that feature two good rebounding teams that are +3 to +6 in rebound differential.The rationale is teams that rebound that well are collecting a higher volume of offensive rebounds, which add baskets or at worst free throws. The Over is 30-6 since 2018, including 4-0 this season.
Out the Door
March Madness – Officiating Has Changed in the Tournament
For years the first two or three rounds were tightly officiated and everyone knew it and expected it. When the quality of teams got better in the later rounds, they let the players have more leeway.If you watched Tennessee beat up Duke, physically and mentally, it was clear coach Rick Barnes told his older and more mature team to “play physical” with the younger, though talented Blue Devils and let the refs decide what to call.
Duke ended up with seven free throws despite the Vols committing fouls on virtually the Blue Devils’ possession. Right or wrong, that’s how it was called and in today’s game, the aggressor is punished less than before.
March Madness – Odds to Win Championship
Odds From BetOnline
- Alabama (+375)
- Houston (+400)
- Texas (+650)
- UCLA (+750)
- Connecticut (+900)
- Gonzaga (+1100)
- Creighton (+1100)
- Tennessee (+1200)
- Kansas State (+2800)
- Xavier (+3300)
- Michigan State (+3300)
- San Diego State (+3300)
- Arkansas (+3300)
- Florida Atlantic (+4500)
- Miami Florida (+5000)
- Princeton (+10000)
WBC – Trea Turner Has Monster Moment
In case you missed it, how the USA beat Cuba Saturday night.What Bettors Like – Play or Fade?
NBA Top 3 Bets by Percentage - Highest First (21-19 record)
- Pacers/Hornets Over
- Knicks
- Bulls/76ers Over
NCAAB Top 1 Bet by Percentage - Highest First (20-22-1 record)
- San Jose State
NHL Top 3 Bets by Percentage - Highest First (15-18 record)
- Oilers
- Kings
- Panthers/Red Wings Over
Let’s get some winners! See you back here Wednesday.
