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By: Doug Upstone
There was much aggravation on social media about the NFL Draft as what was expected hardly happened at all. No matter, but one future NFL player had an even harder night as we explain. Lamar Jackson remained a Raven, which should not have been a surprise. This, along with the weekend best betting trends and we delve into many other topics.
About Last Night…
NFL Draft
You can read all you want at hundreds of websites about what has happened in the 2023 Draft thus far and the rest of the weekend, but here is the betting story. The amount of white noise and rumors make it very challenging to find the truth. Will Levis was reportedly a solid choice at No. 2 and at least a Top 10 pick and what happens is he’s still on the board.Forget “value picks” and who should do what, because you have no idea what 90% of the teams are thinking no matter what they say.
Supposedly, don’t take a running back in the first round, well, Bijan Robinson went at No. 8 to the Falcons and Jahmyr Gibbs at No. 12 to the Lions. That is the 2nd time in 13 years two backs were taken in the Top 12. What happened to “draft equity”?
Make a note, next year, only bet on the number of players by a position taken in the first round and the number of players taken from certain top programs, if you even do that. The time it takes to make money betting the draft annually is almost never worth the possible money made.
But we already know gamblers will be back betting next year.
NBA
Atlanta was pushing Boston again. Then the Celtics put together an 11-0 run about halfway through the 4th quarter to seal it. The carrot on top for Boston backers was covering the -7 in the final seconds with Marcus Smart’s free throws.Final Note. What a choke job by the Milwaukee Bucks Wednesday. No defense, poor half-court offense, especially in the 4th quarter, and no real adjustments by the coaching staff, mostly tinkering. The Bucks were gagging and Miami sensed it. Shocking for a veteran two years forward from an NBA title. Another #8 vs #1 upset and this may have been the worst ever.
NHL
Finally, a team shows you can close a series with a 3-1 lead as Vegas took care of business to advance. As we stated, you have to jump on your opponent in this spot and the Golden Knights did to build a 4-0 lead before winning 4-1.It has been since 2004 when Toronto won a playoff series. With a chance to finally wrap one up, the Maple Leafs fell 4-2 to Tampa Bay. Now Toronto has to go back to West Florida and if they lose that one, a Game 7 against a team that has played in three straight Stanley Cups, winning two of them. Yikes!
It seemed like it was just last week (it actually was) the New York Rangers were heading home with a 2-0 and were thinking of sweeping over New Jersey. Three losses later the Blueshirts return home off a 4-0 drubbing against a younger and faster Devils crew that has regained their full confidence. Game 6 is Saturday.
Trendy Talk
NBA
- Memphis is 2-16 ATS as a road underdog this season.
- Golden State is 10-2 UNDER at home versus teams making 48% or more of their shots this season.
- Denver is 26-10 ATS having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.
- Miami is 11-2 Under in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season.
NHL
- Carolina is 9-2 Over in road games when leading in a playoff series.
- Boston is 12-1 revenging a same-season loss.
- Dallas is 0-5 off a home win where they shut out their opponent.
- Colorado is 21-4 in road games when playing their 3rd game in five days.
- Los Angeles is 10-1 after allowing four goals or more in two straight games.
- Toronto is 10-24 when leading in a playoff series.
- New Jersey is 6-0 in road games after allowing two goals or less in three straight games.
MLB
- St. Louis is 3-12 in night games this season.
- Chicago Cubs are 2-15 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) since last year.
- J. deGrom of the Rangers is 12-3 Under after giving up two or less earned runs in his last two outings.
- A. Nola and the Phillies are 11-25 against a team with a winning record the last two seasons.
- W. Miley and the Brewers are 15-4 in home games since 2021.
What to Watch For and Win (Hopefully)
NBA
We head into the weekend in the NBA Playoffs either looking to finish the series or start new ones in conference semifinal action. Either way, we have it covered for you and your NBA picks.MLB
We have another strong weekend of baseball, with a good intriguing series like the Phillies vs. Astros, which is a rematch from the World Series. This and the Braves vs. Mets and Cardinals vs. Dodgers. Find your free MLB picks here.NHL
Several 1st Round series could be wrapping this weekend. See what our experts think about who wins for your NHL picks.UFC
It is UFC Vegas 72, check out all our free UFC picks and Parlays.XFL
It is playoff time in the XFL and we have a thorough breakdown of each semi-final contest.The Buzz
NFL – Lamar Jackson Remains in Baltimore After All
How many times are we going to fall for this nonsense? The Ravens had built their whole offense around Jackson. They were going to go in a different direction?For another team to sign L.J. they would have to completely revamp their offense game plans in just a few months and it might take two years to have it where you want it. That didn’t make sense.
So much for not having an agent as Jackson became the highest-paid player in NFL history with the five-year, $260 million deal, which comes out to $52 million per year.
Just like in betting, don’t get worked about the noise, look at the big picture.
NFL Draft – Feel Sorry for Will Levis
While we had made it clear here that we didn’t think Levis was a Top 10 pick and maybe not a 1st rounder based on his body of work, it’s still sad to watch a future NFL player go through that painful drama of not being taken where he expected.
Here is to hoping Levis turns into the next Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady who spends his NFL career trying to prove others wrong.
Finally, even this is now painful to watch.
NBA – Conference Semi-Finals Series Pricing (from Bovada)
- (4) Suns -130 over (1) Nuggets (+110)
- (5) Knicks -160 over (8) Heat (+135)
NBA – Becky Hammond to Be the First Woman to Be a Head Coach in the NBA?
Hammond was on Gregg Popovich’s staff and is the current coach of the Las Vegas Aces, who won the WNBA title last season.
She unquestionably can coach at this level, it’s just a matter of if she gets a chance.
Top Betting System
NHL – Stars (-110) vs. Wild
Play on road teams like Dallas when the money line is -100 to -150 off a home win against a division rival, playing with two days rest. Teams like the Stars are 30-6 in this exact situation for the past five years. Does Dallas move on to the next round or is there a Game 7?Out The Door
Media – Could You Please Repeat That
Doing live TV sometimes has its moments.NBA – You Better Look at This
According to ESPN Stats, Klay Thompson has played in eight Game 6's since 2016. Over that span, he's averaging 26.1 PPG on 52% three-point attempts. The Warriors are 6-2 SU in those games.Most sportsbooks we checked have Thompson at O/U 23.5 points. See where we are going here?
NBA – Checks Embiid’s Status Before Betting
The Celtics and 76ers are ready to face off starting Monday, but Joel Embiid is not a certainty to play in Game 1. If he doesn’t play in the series opener, it's hard to think he’ll be 100% with that knee, which could pave the way for Boston to return to the NBA Finals.What Bettors Like – Play or Fade?
NBA Top 2 Bets by Percentage (Highest First) (50-313-1 Record 30-15 Run)
- Suns (Saturday)
- Suns/Nuggets Over
MLB - Top 5 Bets by Percentage (Highest First) (35-20 Record)
- Astros
- Reds/Athletics Over
- Dodgers
- Angeles/Brewers Over
- Pirates
NHL Top 4 Bet by Percentage (Highest First) (47-35 Record and 23-14 Move)
- Bruins
- Bruins/Panthers Over
- Devils/Rangers Over
- Oilers/Kings Over
