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By: Doug Upstone
On Saturday, we saw Kansas basketball at its worst and best, with the latter the deciding factor in the rout of Baylor. Also in college hoops, we talk about the Big East and some really bad beats.
The XFL was well received by those that watched. Jon Rahm is on fire on the links and the Flyboys might have a new ‘Carr’ to drive to the playoffs. This and top trends, top betting system, and Fade or Follow?
With Marquette knocking off Xavier, 69-68 as seven-point home faves, they took over first place in the Big East, yet, the Musketeers, Creighton, and Providence are lurking one game back.
Remember two weeks ago when Clemson looked ready to win the ACC? After a sad showing in losing by 10 at then 3-23 Louisville, the Tigers are 1-4 SU and ATS and have tumbled to 4th in the conference.
If you like ESPN Scott Van Pelt for “Bad Beats”, here are two in the same situation on Sunday. Cleveland State was up four points as a 2.5-point favorite after making two free throws with three seconds left and Northern Kentucky heaved a meaningless shot from 42 feet on the far left that banked in (meaning the shot was off by more than a foot) to cover.
Mount St. Mary’s was giving three points to Canisius and also made a free throw to go up four digits with six ticks left only to see a long bomb made to win by one. Two impossible losses for those on the favorites.
On Tuesday, Tennessee looks to turn their season around with a red-hot Texas A&M crew (ESPN). Later on FS1, Creighton will look to make a mess of the top of the Big East by beating first-place Marquette at home, possibly forcing a four-way tie for the lead.
Over the weekend, MLB set up a special committee to look at how much money the Mets and Padres are spending to win what they hope is a World Series.
Of course, baseball has no problem taking customers' money when five or six teams would tank multiple seasons and those clubs still raked in the cash. But spending money to win, that’s a problem. (Not for the fans.)
Since 2018, clubs like the Horned Frogs are 28-4 ATS in this situation.
Betting was extremely light at sportsbooks, which was to be expected. The underdogs were 2-2, however, the scoring was higher than expected with the Over 3-1.
It was good to see Tiger Woods make the cut and shoot below 70 a couple of times, just don’t expect a lot more from any 47-year-old golfer, let alone one with all the surgeries.
With Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Aaron Rodgers, and who knows, Lamar Jackson possibly all on the move, is it Carr that gets things started?
NCAAB Top 3 Bets Placed by Percentage (highest first) (5-2-1 record)
NHL Top 3 Totals Bets by Percentage (highest first) (4-2 record)
Let’s get some winners! See you back here Wednesday.
On Saturday, we saw Kansas basketball at its worst and best, with the latter the deciding factor in the rout of Baylor. Also in college hoops, we talk about the Big East and some really bad beats.
The XFL was well received by those that watched. Jon Rahm is on fire on the links and the Flyboys might have a new ‘Carr’ to drive to the playoffs. This and top trends, top betting system, and Fade or Follow?
About Last Weekend…
NCAAB
Baylor went to Lawrence and severely outplayed Kansas in the first half to build a 13-point halftime lead. At halftime, Bill Self changed his man-to-man defense to less switching (later admitted he had the wrong game plan going in), pushed his team to run more and they blew out the Bears 55-26 in the second half to win by 17 as five-point favorites. The Jayhawks are giving the appearance they could defend their national title.With Marquette knocking off Xavier, 69-68 as seven-point home faves, they took over first place in the Big East, yet, the Musketeers, Creighton, and Providence are lurking one game back.
Remember two weeks ago when Clemson looked ready to win the ACC? After a sad showing in losing by 10 at then 3-23 Louisville, the Tigers are 1-4 SU and ATS and have tumbled to 4th in the conference.
If you like ESPN Scott Van Pelt for “Bad Beats”, here are two in the same situation on Sunday. Cleveland State was up four points as a 2.5-point favorite after making two free throws with three seconds left and Northern Kentucky heaved a meaningless shot from 42 feet on the far left that banked in (meaning the shot was off by more than a foot) to cover.
Mount St. Mary’s was giving three points to Canisius and also made a free throw to go up four digits with six ticks left only to see a long bomb made to win by one. Two impossible losses for those on the favorites.
NHL
It was a rough weekend for Edmonton. On Friday, Edmonton led the Rangers 4-1 and Sunday were ahead 3-0 at Colorado and ended up losing both games in OT. That places them in rare company in NHL history, but this is not the first time this happened to the Oilers.NBA
Some people love the All-Star festivities and others could care less. It was of note Mac McClung won the Slam Dunk and Jayson Tatum scored an All-Star game-best 55 points.Trendy Talk
NCAAB
- Duke is 1-8 ATS after a game where they covered the spread.
- West Virginia is 9-1 ATS versus teams who average six or fewer steals a game since last year.
- Kansas is 22-5 ATS after allowing 45 points or more in the first half of the last game.
- UC Santa Barbara is 6-0 Over playing their 2nd game in three days this season.
NHL
- Philadelphia is 8-2 (+11.3 Units) revenging a home loss of two goals or more.
- Boston is 24-3 after playing a home game this season.
- Seattle is 8-0 playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season.
- Anaheim is 10-2 Over in road games after allowing three goals or more in four straight games.
- Vancouver is 0-7 off a home win by two goals or more this season. (Tuesday)
- Los Angeles is 9-1 ATS after playing a game where 9 or more total goals were scored. (Tuesday)
What to Watch For and Win (Hopefully)
NCAAB
It’s Monday and ESPN has a doubleheader with Louisville vs. Duke and Kansas vs. TCU.On Tuesday, Tennessee looks to turn their season around with a red-hot Texas A&M crew (ESPN). Later on FS1, Creighton will look to make a mess of the top of the Big East by beating first-place Marquette at home, possibly forcing a four-way tie for the lead.
NHL
Watch for Monday and Tuesday's best bets and our top player props on the ice.NBA
With no games until Thursday, we are putting a collection of articles together for betting that includes betting odds to win the championship, either conference, MVP, and Rookie of the Year. Check them out.Golf
The PGA Tour heads to Florida after being out west for the Honda Classic. Review our best bets and top prop picks.The Buzz
NFL – Eric Bieniemy Off to Virginia
As we reported Friday, Bieniemy has signed with Washington as the OC and he will have a chance to prove he has much to do with the Chiefs’ success.MLB – So Now You Care
As you know, the commissioners of sports are paid by the owners. Though the Commish’s job is to make good on both sides, when money is involved, inevitably, they have to side with the owners to keep employed.Over the weekend, MLB set up a special committee to look at how much money the Mets and Padres are spending to win what they hope is a World Series.
Of course, baseball has no problem taking customers' money when five or six teams would tank multiple seasons and those clubs still raked in the cash. But spending money to win, that’s a problem. (Not for the fans.)
Top Betting System
NCAAB – Kansas at TCU -0.5 (-110) First Half
This Big 12 battle is on ESPN at 09:00 PM EST. Play on teams like TCU when the 1st half line is +1.5 to -1.5, a below-average three-point shooting team at 32% or lower, against an average three-point defense (32.5-36.5%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better.Since 2018, clubs like the Horned Frogs are 28-4 ATS in this situation.
Out the Door
XFL – Early Passing Grades
The opening week of XFL football was liked by those who watched. The quality of play was not terrible, having at least some home fans was a plus and most liked the various innovations they saw.Betting was extremely light at sportsbooks, which was to be expected. The underdogs were 2-2, however, the scoring was higher than expected with the Over 3-1.
Golf – Jon Rahm and Tiger Woods
Rahm won for a third time in six starts Sunday at the L.A. Open. He’s the dominant player at present. Right now, if Rahm plays, the betting odds will have him as the favorite.It was good to see Tiger Woods make the cut and shoot below 70 a couple of times, just don’t expect a lot more from any 47-year-old golfer, let alone one with all the surgeries.
NFL – Derek Carr a Jet?
Over the weekend, Derek Carr had an interesting visit with the New York Jets. Gang Green has a good running game and good receivers and defense that should be a legit Top 5 crew.With Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Aaron Rodgers, and who knows, Lamar Jackson possibly all on the move, is it Carr that gets things started?
What Bettors Like – Play or Fade?
NCAAB Top 3 Bets Placed by Percentage (highest first) (5-2-1 record)
- UC-Irvine
- Okla. State/West Virginia Over
- Louisville/Duke Over
NHL Top 3 Totals Bets by Percentage (highest first) (4-2 record)
- Rangers
- Flames
- Kraken
Let’s get some winners! See you back here Wednesday.
