Wagerallsports
- Joined
- Mar 6, 2018
- Messages
- 57,035
The 25 most important players in 2022's College Football Playoff race
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALIn 2019, we knew all about Trevor Lawrence but didn't necessarily see Joe Burrow coming. In 2020, Lawrence and Justin Fields were slam dunks, but no one was predicting what we got from Mac Jones and Kyle Trask.
Heading into each college football season, there are known stars and unknown stars. We know what to expect from the sport's proven studs -- in 2022, that includes Bryce Young, Will Anderson Jr., C.J. Stroud and Jaxon Smith-Njigba -- but others will emerge. Maybe they will come out of nowhere, or maybe they have simply been waiting their turn, but the unknown stars of 2022 will determine both what we remember about the season and how the national title race plays out.
My annual Most Important Players list is about those unknowns. We know what we're getting from Stroud, Young & Co., but here are 25 players who could define the season with either moments or long spells of greatness. Some play for contenders, while others play for the teams that might prevent contenders from reaching their goals. All of them will have a chance to make their mark on 2022.
Spoiler quarterbacks
Like Zach Calzada and Texas A&M against Bama last season, plenty of quarterbacks could pilot an upset that turns the title race, even if they and/or their teams aren't quite strong enough to do it repeatedly. (Not surprisingly, all of these QBs are in the Big Ten or SEC, since that's where many of this year's contenders reside.)
The Arizona State transfer is enmeshed in a four-way battle to become Brian Kelly's first starter at LSU. He probably has the highest upside of the bunch.
Daniels is ungovernable. Among QBs with at least 375 dropbacks last season, his 15.1% rate of scrambles per dropback was comfortably the most, but he's good at it. He averaged 8.9 yards per carry on scrambles and produced a raw QBR of 85.5 when passing from outside the pocket. LSU probably isn't going to contend for the SEC West, but with the Tigers' overall athleticism and Daniels' unique improv skills, they could beat any single team on the schedule. If he wins the job.
His full-season averages -- 8.3 yards per pass, 7.9 yards per rush -- were a thrill, but after the first two games of the season (easy wins over FAU and USF) those numbers fell to 6.4 and 3.2, respectively. Former Florida coach Dan Mullen clearly trusted Emory Jones more as the starter, but both Mullen and Jones are gone this year. Billy Napier's Gators debut will depend primarily on coaxing consistency out of this all-or-nothing QB.
Florida's roster is probably too flawed to win big, but Richardson's pure potential could derail title hopes for Week 1 opponent Utah and/or contenders and conference foes Georgia and Texas A&M.
He still has that ridiculous right arm, and in wideout Josh Vann and tight end Jaheim Bell, he has at least two players who didn't produce a ton last year but might have with actual stability at QB. South Carolina hosts Georgia and Texas A&M and travels to Clemson. This is one high-upside spoiler contender.
Last season, Rattler was hemmed in by smart Big 12 defenses focused on zone and big-play prevention. He will face more man-to-man defense in the SEC, which could help, and if he has learned from last year's errors, he could produce big numbers and take down a contender.
A reminder: Clifford's Total QBR rating was 10th in FBS last season -- 66% completion rate, 7.8 yards per dropback (despite having played three elite defenses), 7.7 yards per scramble -- before he got hurt against Iowa. Both he and the PSU offense were rather dismal from there, but when Clifford is healthy, he brings a strong combination of playmaking and excellent mobility to the table. It doesn't take too many other ifs to make PSU a contender if Clifford is at his best, but at the very least he remains capable of taking down Michigan on the road or, perhaps, Ohio State at home.
On the same day Clifford was injured against Iowa, Thompson, Texas' starting QB at the time, hurt his thumb against Oklahoma. He struggled mightily over the next five games (all losses) before rebounding with an efficient performance against Kansas State, but it's worth noting that Thompson was 17th in Total QBR -- 67% completion rate, 8.8 yards per dropback, 8.4 yards per scramble -- and in the process of torching Oklahoma when he got hurt.
He seems to be seizing control in the battle for QB1 at Nebraska, and he might get another shot at OU on Sept. 17 (and then Michigan in November).
If you buy into Tennessee's borderline top-10 SP+ projections, you could view Hooker and the Vols as longshot title contenders. But if that proves a bridge too far -- and it probably should -- there's still nothing saying they can't be a great spoiler. Tennessee should have one of the best offenses in the country, and Hooker is the perfect pilot, combining accurate passing (68% completion rate) with big-play potential (14.3 yards per completion) and a strong presence in the run game (6.1 yards per non-sack carry).
The Vols topped 40 points in seven of his 11 starts last year and could be even more dangerous this time around.
Other candidates: Zach Calzada (Auburn), Taulia Tagovailoa (Maryland), Spencer Petras (Iowa), Graham Mertz (Wisconsin).
Potential stars in need of a breakthrough
All eight players in this batch play for teams picked in the top seven of the preseason coaches' poll. They've all shown great potential, and if they take star turns, their teams' title odds will improve accordingly.
It's wild to step back and realize that Georgia won the national title with a former walk-on quarterback (Stetson Bennett) throwing primarily to a freshman tight end (Brock Bowers) and freshman slot receiver (Ladd McConkey). But who caught the 40-yard bomb to put the Dawgs ahead in the fourth quarter of the national title game? Mitchell, another freshman. He's the only returning wideout who caught more than seven balls last season, and even he only caught 29; a more consistent effort would assure that Bennett isn't relying on scheme and safer outlets -- no matter how good those outlets are -- to keep thriving.
If you cheated and scrolled down to the end, you already know that the A&M quarterback position is of vital importance this season. But Achane has a chance to make said QB's job awfully easy. With starting running back Isaiah Spiller gone to the pros, Achane, a track-and-field standout and one of the fastest players in the sport, has a chance at a star turn. He averaged 7 yards per carry and 11 yards per reception last season, and despite his diminutive size (5-foot-9, 185 pounds) he averaged more yards per carry after contact (3.7) than Spiller did last season (3.0). His potential is endless.
Quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei suffered through a dire 2021 season, but for as poorly as he played, he didn't get a ton of help either. He also didn't get a full season from Ngata. The former four-star recruit produced some of Clemson's most important early-season moments -- a 44-yard catch that kept the Tigers within a touchdown of Georgia in the fourth quarter; a 54-yarder that set up Clemson's last score in a tight win over Boston College -- but missed four of the final seven games and caught just five passes after Oct. 15. If he enjoys a breakout year, so might Uiagalelei.
Honestly, the 310-pounder from Apopka, Florida, is already a star. He is impossibly active -- he averaged a tackle on 11.7% of snaps last year -- for comparison, leading linebacker Nakobe Dean was at only 11.4% -- and on a line loaded with future pros, he led his unit with 8.5 TFLs. He is an All-American linebacker stuck in a nose tackle's body. Decent fullback, too.
Of the eight linemen and linebackers who saw at least 350 snaps last season, however, six are gone. If Georgia's defense is to remain the best in the country, Carter will need to step perfectly into a larger leadership role. He also might need to make even more plays. The scary part is that he's capable of doing just that.
When stars Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave opted out of the Buckeyes' Rose Bowl appearance against Utah, star slot man Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught an incredible 15 balls for 347 yards and three scores. That's incredible, but it's also hard to maintain over an entire season.
As good as Smith-Njigba and running back TreVeyon Henderson are, quarterback C.J. Stroud will need strong contributions from at least one of last year's backup receivers. We'll call Harrison the placeholder because of his own Rose Bowl breakout (six catches, 71 yards, three TDs), but Fleming is more experienced, and Egbuka topped Harrison's full-season receiving yardage (191 to 139) while running less than half as many routes (57 to 126). The potential here is obvious, but someone must come through.
Despite the departure of offensive coordinator Josh Gattis, Michigan could be poised to improve offensively thanks to overall experience and upside. But if you're trying to talk yourself into Michigan having a shot at another Big Ten title or CFP appearance, it's hard to overlook the departures of star ends Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo. They combined for 28.5 TFLs and 25 sacks and offered Michigan a chance at constant pressure without excessive blitzing.
Five returning ends combined for just 5.5 TFLs and four sacks. Mike Morris, Taylor Upshaw, Braiden McGregor & Co. have a ridiculously high bar to clear if the Wolverines want to avoid regression. It doesn't matter who takes a star turn as long as someone does.
Against Minnesota, Oregon, Michigan and Utah -- aka the four most physical teams on their schedule -- Ohio State allowed 249 rushing yards and 38 points per game last season. While new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has made the most noise with his brilliant and physical approach to pass defense, it's the run defense that needs the most immediate improvement in 2022, and Harrison and Vincent are the only two returning linemen who recorded more than 300 snaps last year.
The seniors are both former top-20 prospects, and both flashed blue-chip form last season: Harrison had six TFLs in his final eight games, and Vincent was seemingly everywhere against Utah in the Rose Bowl. They must both make plays and provide leadership for a young defensive front that must not only overcome inexperience but also improve on the showing of last year's line.
Other candidates: WR Devin Carter (NC State), DT Tuli Tuipulotu (USC), LB Payton Wilson (NC State).
