Halftime/Full Time +1700
By
Alex Hinton
Texas has hosted LSU and Alabama in Austin in recent years, but on Saturday, it may have its biggest conference home game in over a decade.
Texas is up to No. 18 in the College Football Playoff rankings, but No. 6 in SP+ rankings. Texas is brimming with playmakers, led by running backs Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson, wide receiver Xavier Worthy and tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders. Quarterback Quinn Ewers is still growing in his first year as a starter, as well.
Texas is tied for second place in the Big 12 with a 4-2 conference record. However, it would be in an even better position (perhaps in the CFP race) if it could close out games better.
Texas has had a second-half lead in each of its three losses this season. Texas was up six on Alabama in the fourth quarter, but I won’t knock it too much for losing that one.
However, the Longhorns blew 14-point leads to both Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Even in wins, Texas led Iowa State 17-7 and lost the lead before winning 24-21. It also led Kansas State 31-10 at halftime and had to hold on to win 34-27 last week.
Dating back to last season, Texas has lost four consecutive games in which it led in the second half.
Texas is still in control of its own destiny to reach the Big 12 Championship. However, it could be undefeated and tied for first place if it had held on against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.
On Saturday night, it will host TCU, the team that is in first place.
TCU is 9-0 overall, 6-0 in the Big 12 and up to No. 4 in the College Football Playoff Rankings. However, TCU trailed by 17 points in consecutive weeks against Oklahoma State and Kansas State. Last week, it fell behind 10-7 to Texas Tech in the first half before rallying to win 34-24.
TCU has shown resiliency and that it’s never out of a game. It also helps having one of the most explosive offenses in the country.
The Horned Frogs are fourth in the FBS in scoring offense (43.1 PPG), fourth in total offense (508.7 yards) and are tied for first in yards per play (7.4).
Despite not beginning the season as the starter, Max Duggan has emerged as a Heisman candidate. He has thrown for 2,407 yards, 24 touchdowns, just two interceptions, is completing 66% of his passes and has also ran for 282 yards.
His top wide receiver is Quentin Johnston, who has 42 receptions for 650 yards and four touchdowns. Johnston left last week’s game early and he’s questionable this week.
His status is important to the handicap, as he’s the best receiver in the Big 12 and a projected first-round pick. If he’s in, TCU will have every chance to win this game.
It will also be able to lean on running back Kendre Miller, who has 1,009 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns this season.
DraftKings offers a market called “Halftime/Full Time” in which you select a first-half winner and a full-game winner. It is also known as “Double Result” if you are familiar with NFL betting on
FanDuel.
Texas is a team that likes to start fast and jump on opponents. It has scored 203 of its 325 points this season in the first half. I expect the Longhorns to take the lead into halftime.
TCU has scored 193 of its 388 points, roughly half, in the second half and has come from behind in the last three weeks. Given the trends of these teams, I could certainly see Texas winning the first half, but TCU winning the game. DraftKings is offering +900 for this to happen.
This is a play I will sprinkle on as I do think Texas is correctly favored. However, as good as Texas is, it rarely controls a game from start to finish. I expect Texas to give TCU a chance to get back in the game.
That means Texas-TCU Double Result will have a chance of hitting and is well worth the price.
Additionally, DraftKings is offering a value on this play. If you built out Texas first-half winner and TCU moneyline in a same-game parlay, the price is +870 on FanDuel.
Pick: Halftime/Full Time +1700 (Via DraftKings)
TCU +7.5
By
Action Analytics
I’m not sure what the reasoning is behind Texas being a 7.5-point favorite over TCU, aside from the fact that this game is in Austin, Texas.
Why do I anticipate this being a close game?
Number one is TCU’s pace of play and Success Rate on offense. So far this season, TCU’s offense has followed the Georgia Bulldogs’ blueprint of “extremely slow, yet highly effective.”
The Horned Frogs rank 117th in seconds per play and 36th in Success Rate. This means they churn clock and keep the ball moving, which historically has been a recipe for keeping games close (in this case, within one score).
Another reason I am optimistic TCU can keep it close if not win outright? The erratic play of Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers so far this season. Ewers ranks 89th in offensive grade, according to PFF (among QBs with 75 or more dropbacks).
Why is this? He has just not been accurate, rating 130th in adjusted completion percentage.
I expect the Horned Frogs to have a successful day moving the ball and capitalize on a few mistakes made by Ewers. I understand that a lot of times betting on teams that theoretically should be the favorite (due to record or ranking) is a square play, but I really can’t see a reason Texas is a 7.5 favorite.
Pick: TCU +7.5
