Tanko's Plays 8/12/22 (MLB, WNBA, maybe some NFL)

[Tanko]

First play I really like today is Atlanta @ Miami 6:40 ET

Starting Pitching:
Odorizzi (ATL) vs Lopez (MIA). Statistically for the year, these are pretty evenly matched pitchers.
Odorizzi 3.76 ERA
Lopez 3.57 ERA
Odorizzi has been more consistent over the last month but, I'd say there isn't a big edge one way or the other.

Batting:
This is where the separation occurs. ATL is much much better at the plate. Recent stats....
ATL WRC+120, OPS 0.805, AVG 0.276
MIA WRC+ 68, OPS 0.583, AVG 0.208
Over the last few games ATL is averaging 6.5 rpg while Miami is at 2.5 rpg.

Relief Pitching:
Atlanta is better in the bullpen as well.
ATL 3.05 ERA
MIA 3.69 ERA
Atlanta bullpen is a little more used up than Miami's so this could become a factor late, depending upon how far the starters go.

Misc:
Interesting stat. Using closing lines...
Atlanta is -2.5 units for the year on the road.
Miami is -10.5 units for the year at home.
This indicates Atlanta plays, on average, about as expected by closing lines on the road while Miami does not do so at home.


I'm a little surprised at the line of -132 for Atlanta. This feels like it should be closer to -150 or higher so I see a lot of value here.

ATL ML -132

Good luck.

 

[BobbyFK]

good luck today Tanko!

 

[Tanko]

Arizona @ Colorado 8:40 ET

Starting Pitching:
When we talk about games at Coors Field, does pitching really matter?
I'm obviously kidding but with Davies (ARI) and Senzatela (COL) going tonight, we'll probably see a few runs. Over the last month Senzatela has done slightly better than Davis.

Davies 5.14 ERA
Senzatela 4.01 ERA

Batting:
Colorado has been on fire at the plate the last 7-10 days. Arizona hasn't been bad either but not as good as Colorado.
ARI WRC+ 115, OPS 0.769, AVG 0.279
COL WRC+ 140, OPS 0.911, AVG 0.338

Over the last 3 games, COL is averaging 9.5 rpg while ARI is at 6 rpg. I'm sure a lot of people are looking at the Over 12 tonight.

Relief Pitching:
Arizona has the slight edge on the stat sheet but you have to remember COL pitchers play half their games in batter friendly Coors Field so the difference between these team's pens may not be that significant.
COL 4.34 ERA
ARI 3.82 ERA

Misc:
Colorado loves to play at Coors Field. 64% of the games they win come at home. They would probably be in the running for a wild card spot if they weren't 29th in winning % on the road (33%).
Also, COL is at +8.5 units at home using closing lines. ARI is -6.5 units on the road. That 15 unit delta really sold me on this game.

COL ML -119

 

[Tanko]

Made my first WNBA play in years last night with the Conn Suns 1H -6.5 and won. It was one of my LCS contest plays so I thought I might go there again today. I see a play today that seems like it has value.

WNBA WAS Mystics @ IND Fever 7:00 ET
Indiana Fever + 13.5 - 105 is the play.

Team Records and Playoffs:
The Fever are bad, I mean really bad. They've won just 5 games this year (5-29 record). The Mystics are in the playoffs as a #5 or maybe with some luck a #4 seed so not much to play for. They have an outside chance at the #4 seed but its not likely.

The Fever are actually trying. They took Dallas to OT in their last game and have played everyone in the middle of the standings pretty well over the last month.

Value Analysis:
I did the old school review of data to see if this play had any value. I compared how well the Mystics played the worst teams (Fever, Sparks, Mercury, Liberty, Dream, Lynx) in the league and how well the Fever played the middle of the pack (Lynx, Wings, Storm).

I'm seeing the Fever typically stay within 10 pts of those teams and the Mystics win by 10 or less over the last month.This leads me to think the +13.5 at home (last home game of the year) might have some value.


WNBA IND +13.5 -105




Good luck tonight.

 

[Bubbles]

First play I really like today is Atlanta @ Miami 6:40 ET

Starting Pitching:
Odorizzi (ATL) vs Lopez (MIA). Statistically for the year, these are pretty evenly matched pitchers.
Odorizzi 3.76 ERA
Lopez 3.57 ERA
Odorizzi has been more consistent over the last month but, I'd say there isn't a big edge one way or the other.

Batting:
This is where the separation occurs. ATL is much much better at the plate. Recent stats....
ATL WRC+120, OPS 0.805, AVG 0.276
MIA WRC+ 68, OPS 0.583, AVG 0.208
Over the last few games ATL is averaging 6.5 rpg while Miami is at 2.5 rpg.

Relief Pitching:
Atlanta is better in the bullpen as well.
ATL 3.05 ERA
MIA 3.69 ERA
Atlanta bullpen is a little more used up than Miami's so this could become a factor late, depending upon how far the starters go.

Misc:
Interesting stat. Using closing lines...
Atlanta is -2.5 units for the year on the road.
Miami is -10.5 units for the year at home.
This indicates Atlanta plays, on average, about as expected by closing lines on the road while Miami does not do so at home.


I'm a little surprised at the line of -132 for Atlanta. This feels like it should be closer to -150 or higher so I see a lot of value here.

ATL ML -132

Good luck.

good luck tanko. also took atl -140. i need this to win.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Best of luck tank

 

[lemartinsports]

lots of good stuff so far in here tanko. good luck!

 

[carolinakid]

GL Tanko on all your action, bol for a great weekend there!!

 

[Tanko]

Hope the day is a positive one... Positive units that is.

 

[Tanko]

Braves won
Indiana Fever covered

2-0 +2.00 units
Colorado play still ongoing.

 

[Tanko]

Rockies came through as well

3-0 +3.00 today.

 

[keithrichard]

Great picks! I tailed you. You bailed me out a little on a bad night.Thanks Tanko.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Rockies came through as well

3-0 +3.00 today.

Great job tank

 

[Florida Fever]

Nice job!