Tanko's MLB Plays Sept 1st

[Tanko]

Treading water in MLB over the last couple days due to a couple of bad beats (thank you Atlanta Braves...SMH).

8/30/22 4-4-0 -1.51 units
8/31/22 2-2-0 -0.30 units

Today there is a DOG I really like. This line should be much closer than is shown so I'll take advantage of it. This is a value play.

Texas +158 @ Boston

Starting Pitching:
Otto (TEX) vs Hill (BOS). Otto has been pitching much better than Hill in the last 4-5 outings. 2.93 ERA vs 4.74 ERA. I will say the few at bats (15) the current Red Sox batters have against Otto for his career have been pretty good 0.400 avg, and in his only appearance (May 14th) this year against the Red Sox, he did give up 8 ER. I'm thinking people might be reading too much into that game and driving the line accordingly. Otto has been pretty damn good of late.

Batting:
Both teams have been hitting well over the last 10. Edge to Boston.
TEX WRC+ 124, OPS 0.785, AVG 0.256
BOS WRC+ 135, OPS 0.848, AVG 0.321
RPG over last 3 are even at 4.33 rpg.

Relief Pitching:
Texas bullpen is much better than Boston's. 2.90 ERA vs 4.58 ERA

Misc:

1. Texas is on a 4 game slide (all at home) but they actually have played better on the road (10-10) since the All-star break than at home (7-12).
2. Texas is +0.5 rpg vs opponents as road dogs (2nd best in MLB). At home dogs they are -0.4 rpg. They play better on the road.
   Boston is +0.3 rpg vs opponents as home favs (19th in MLB).
3. As a road team this season Texas is +4 units
   As a home team this season Boston is -8 units

With these odds I see +EV in this play.

Texas +158 @ Boston

GL

 

[Tanko]

I'll even throw in some useless stats of the day on this game.... Texas has lost last 4 and plays on the road.

• Teams that have lost 4 and play on the road while scoring > 3 rpg (Texas is at 4.3 rpg avg over that period) win 51% of the time (183-176).
• Teams that have lost 4 and play on the road while allowing > 6.5 rpg (Texas lost by 7.3 rpg avg over that period) win 55% of the time (191-159).

For comparison +157 odds = ~39% implied probability.

 

[BobbyFK]

Great write up and best of luck on the play Tanko!

 

[Wagerallsports]

Great value on Texas with Boston right now and how they're playing

 

[carolinakid]

BOL Tank on all your thur action!! and have a great and safe holiday coming up

 

[Tanko]

Next dog I like today is Arizona.

Milwaukee at Arizona

Starting Pitching:
Woodruff (MIL) vs Kelly (ARI). Woodruff is the slightly better pitcher but not by much. Over the last month 2.70 ERA vs 3.34 ERA. D-back batters have 0.292 avg vs Woodruff and Brewers are 0.250 vs Kelly.

Batting:
Batting is pretty close to even.
MIL 0.238 avg
ARI 0.239 avg
Recent rpg favors the D-backs 9 rpg vs 5 rpg for Brewers <- favors D-backs.

Relief Pitching:
Brewers have better bullpen 3.55 ERA vs 4.51 ERA

Misc:

• Arizona has played 6 home series since All-star break. They've won 5 of those series (WAS, SFG, COL, PIT, PHI) and lost one (STL). More importantly, they've won the 1st game of 5 out of 6 of those series.
• Milwaukee has played 5 road series in that time. They've lost 4 (PIT, STL, CHC, LAD) and won one (BOS). They are 2-3 in the first games of these series.
• D-backs are +2 units at home on the season
• Brewers are -5 units on road.

Arizona +120

 

[Over Under]

One dog should win.

 

[Tanko]

Hope so. I've got a couple of others (KC/DET RL) on my card as well but not as strong of bets as these two.

 

[Pimike]

Interesting take on both here bud.

 

[Tanko]

Just trying to play the angles PiMike.

 

[Pimike]

Just trying to play the angles PiMike.

Let’s get em. I will tail both for a hundo

 

[Bubbles]

Treading water in MLB over the last couple days due to a couple of bad beats (thank you Atlanta Braves...SMH).

8/30/22 4-4-0 -1.51 units
8/31/22 2-2-0 -0.30 units

Today there is a DOG I really like. This line should be much closer than is shown so I'll take advantage of it. This is a value play.

Texas +158 @ Boston

Starting Pitching:
Otto (TEX) vs Hill (BOS). Otto has been pitching much better than Hill in the last 4-5 outings. 2.93 ERA vs 4.74 ERA. I will say the few at bats (15) the current Red Sox batters have against Otto for his career have been pretty good 0.400 avg, and in his only appearance (May 14th) this year against the Red Sox, he did give up 8 ER. I'm thinking people might be reading too much into that game and driving the line accordingly. Otto has been pretty damn good of late.

Batting:
Both teams have been hitting well over the last 10. Edge to Boston.
TEX WRC+ 124, OPS 0.785, AVG 0.256
BOS WRC+ 135, OPS 0.848, AVG 0.321
RPG over last 3 are even at 4.33 rpg.

Relief Pitching:
Texas bullpen is much better than Boston's. 2.90 ERA vs 4.58 ERA

Misc:

1. Texas is on a 4 game slide (all at home) but they actually have played better on the road (10-10) since the All-star break than at home (7-12).
2. Texas is +0.5 rpg vs opponents as road dogs (2nd best in MLB). At home dogs they are -0.4 rpg. They play better on the road.
   Boston is +0.3 rpg vs opponents as home favs (19th in MLB).
3. As a road team this season Texas is +4 units
   As a home team this season Boston is -8 units

With these odds I see +EV in this play.

Texas +158 @ Boston

GL

rangers looking good tonight. let's win this tanko.

 

[Tanko]

Unbelieveable bad luck.
Texas ahead 8-5 in bottom of 9th and lose 9-8. Just Incredible.

 

[keithrichard]

I've been going bad last few days. Only play today Texas. Great...up 8-5 finally win 1. Sorry Tanko. Blame me.

 

[JDS]

Sorry Tank, I would’ve put a hole in my wall for sure or broke a remote.

 

[Pimike]

Unbelievable bad luck


Come on Arizona!

 

[Tanko]

Arizona won so it wasn't a total loss for the day. 1-1-0 +0.20

Bad luck seems to be keeping near breakeven lately.

• 8/30/22 4-4-0 -1.51 units Atlanta loses as a -300 Fav
• 8/31/22 2-2-0 -0.30 units Atlanta screws me again as -300 Fav
• 9/1/22 1-1-0 +0.20 units Texas loses a 8-5 lead in bottom of the 9th.

 

[JDS]

Arizona won so it wasn't a total loss for the day. 1-1-0 +0.20

Bad luck seems to be keeping near breakeven lately.

• 8/30/22 4-4-0 -1.51 units Atlanta loses as a -300 Fav
• 8/31/22 2-2-0 -0.30 units Atlanta screws me again as -300 Fav
• 9/1/22 1-1-0 +0.20 units Texas loses a 8-5 lead in bottom of the 9th.

Nice way to recover from such a bad beat in the 9th.