Tanko's MLB Plays Aug 1st

[Tanko]

Now that the nightmare that was July is over, its time to get back into it and make sure that I'm ready for Last Capper Standing contest. I've got a tough matchup to start with 2the9s in week 1.

Full disclosure: July was a bad month in MLB for me. After a -22 unit run to start the month of July, I fortunately recovered from "tilt" by going 9-1 (+7.2 units) in the last week of the month. I did not post the plays during the last week since I was making sure the "poor performance" was worked out of my system. But, now its time to step up.

 

[Tanko]

NYM @ WAS 7:05 ET

I like the Mets in their matchup with Washington. The ML odds are steep so we're going with the RL -1.5 -147 BetOnline. Scherzer on the mound for Mets. Corbin on the mound for Nats. Corbin has been giving up runs like people give out beads at Mardi Gras.

Mets last few games avg 6.5 rpg.
Nats last few games avg 3.0 rpg

The mets in last 7 days have been on fire at the plate. #1 in MLB for WRC+, OPS, AVG over that period and its not even close.

WRC+ 165 (2nd is MIL at 140)
OPS 0.936 (2nd is MIL at 0.877)
AVG 0.316 (2nd is PHI at 0.304)

For this game there is no comparison at the plate as well.
NYM WRC+ 165, OPS 0.936, AVG 0.316
WAS WRC+ 89, OPS 0.677, AVG 0.244

NYM have one of the best bull-pens in MLB 2.80 ERA.
WAS is 3.66 ERA.

NYM RL -1.5 -145 BetOnline

 

[Wagerallsports]

Looking forward to a good month tank

 

[Bubbles]

NYM @ WAS 7:05 ET

I like the Mets in their matchup with Washington. The ML odds are steep so we're going with the RL -1.5 -147 BetOnline. Scherzer on the mound for Mets. Corbin on the mound for Nats. Corbin has been giving up runs like people give out beads at Mardi Gras.

Mets last few games avg 6.5 rpg.
Nats last few games avg 3.0 rpg

The mets in last 7 days have been on fire at the plate. #1 in MLB for WRC+, OPS, AVG over that period and its not even close.

WRC+ 165 (2nd is MIL at 140)
OPS 0.936 (2nd is MIL at 0.877)
AVG 0.316 (2nd is PHI at 0.304)

For this game there is no comparison at the plate as well.
NYM WRC+ 165, OPS 0.936, AVG 0.316
WAS WRC+ 89, OPS 0.677, AVG 0.244

NYM have one of the best bull-pens in MLB 2.80 ERA.
WAS is 3.66 ERA.

NYM RL -1.5 -145 BetOnline

nym performance yesterday was great. this is going to be an easy win tanko.

 

[JDS]

NYM @ WAS 7:05 ET

I like the Mets in their matchup with Washington. The ML odds are steep so we're going with the RL -1.5 -147 BetOnline. Scherzer on the mound for Mets. Corbin on the mound for Nats. Corbin has been giving up runs like people give out beads at Mardi Gras.

Mets last few games avg 6.5 rpg.
Nats last few games avg 3.0 rpg

The mets in last 7 days have been on fire at the plate. #1 in MLB for WRC+, OPS, AVG over that period and its not even close.

WRC+ 165 (2nd is MIL at 140)
OPS 0.936 (2nd is MIL at 0.877)
AVG 0.316 (2nd is PHI at 0.304)

For this game there is no comparison at the plate as well.
NYM WRC+ 165, OPS 0.936, AVG 0.316
WAS WRC+ 89, OPS 0.677, AVG 0.244

NYM have one of the best bull-pens in MLB 2.80 ERA.
WAS is 3.66 ERA.

NYM RL -1.5 -145 BetOnline

Patrick Corbin has been shelled in 4 straight starts. 20 earned runs over his last 16.2 innings. His 3 starts this year against the Mets he is 0-2 with a 6.08 era. I support this pick, but too pricey on the RL for my taste. Good luck Tanko

 

[Tanko]

Thanks guys. Hope we can get the "W".

 

[Tanko]

ARI @ CLE 7:10 ET

I like the Guardians in this one. The ML is -151 so I'm again dipping into the RL -1.5 +130 to get more value.


Pitching
Quantrill (CLE) 3.97 ERA vs Davis (ARI) 3.94 ERA. Looks like an even matchup on the mound but, even though Davies (ARI) has been pithing well of late, if you look closer, he's been pitching against some of the poorer hitting teams in the league. Quantrill meanwhile has been pitching against a little better opponent over the last 3-4 starts and doing reasonably well (4 wins).

Batting
Cleveland bats have been much stronger than D-backs over the last week.
CLE WRC+ 101, OPS 0.702, AVG 0.258
ARI WRC+ 69, OPS 0.594, AVG 0.185

Bullpen
Guardians have a slightly better bullpen (3.23 vs 3.67 ERA).

Scoring Runs
Cleveland is at ~4.5 rpg for recent games
Arizona is ~1.5 rpg.
I like seeing these deltas when I'm edging towards a RL play.


D-backs are on a 3 game skid and are 3-9 in their last 12 road games and were outscored 73-40 over those games (outscored ~1.9 rpg).

CLE RL -1.5 +130 BetOnline

 

[Tanko]

Parlay of Favorites....

Similar to Bettor Days' play Saturday when he played the Yankees and Blue Jays in a MLB parlay, every now and then there are two games that show up that look like clear winners but the juice is too high. So, we'll go with a 2 team parlay for these.

Boston @ Houston 8:00 ET
Seattle @ Yankees 7:05 ET

2 Team Parlay NYY & Houston ML +124

Seattle vs NYY
Seattle is a little roughed up from the recent series against the Astros going 1-3. They were swept in Seattle last week by those Astros. That has to have crushed some of their hopes of getting closer in the standings to the Astros. I have to believe they are a little dejected. Now they fly to NY and face the Yankees (who played at home yesterday - no travel day).

The Yankees seem to have got their act together taking 3 of 4 from the Royals and after losing yesterday's game to the Royals having a 6-4 lead after 7, and a 6-5 lead after 8, should motivate them. I also like them getting that loss "out of the way".

Boston vs Houston
I'm sure everyone is familiar with the collapse of the Red Sox. 4-10 over last 14. They are now 3.5 games out of the wild card and a game below 0.500 now after being 11 games above 0.500 in late June. I can't imagine how bad the attitude is in their locker room these days. Boston does travel from the East coast for this game while the Astros remain at home for their 5th game in a row.

Eovaldi (BOS) has come apart his last 3 starts (15 ERs in 13 innings). Until he regroups and proves he can pitch again, I'm betting against him. Meanwhile Garcia (HOU) got a little lit up by the Athletics last time out but tbh, the Athletics have decided to start playing serious baseball since the break (7-4 against good teams) so its not a shocker. Otherwise Garcia has been solid.


2 Team Parlay NYY & Houston ML +124 BetOnline

 

[BobbyFK]

Always like your write up’s. Good luck on the plays today

 

[JDS]

Always like your write up’s. Good luck on the plays today

Yes very detailed handicapper right here. This guy needs to be on the show Bobby as a special guest.

 

[carolinakid]

Great work Tanko and bol with your augest action sir!!

 

[Tanko]

Good luck on your plays guys.

 

[Headsterx]

Tanko wished today was Aug 8th. Picks look solid, good luck!

 

[Wagerallsports]

Parlay of Favorites....

Similar to Bettor Days' play Saturday when he played the Yankees and Blue Jays in a MLB parlay, every now and then there are two games that show up that look like clear winners but the juice is too high. So, we'll go with a 2 team parlay for these.

Boston @ Houston 8:00 ET
Seattle @ Yankees 7:05 ET

2 Team Parlay NYY & Houston ML +124

Seattle vs NYY
Seattle is a little roughed up from the recent series against the Astros going 1-3. They were swept in Seattle last week by those Astros. That has to have crushed some of their hopes of getting closer in the standings to the Astros. I have to believe they are a little dejected. Now they fly to NY and face the Yankees (who played at home yesterday - no travel day).

The Yankees seem to have got their act together taking 3 of 4 from the Royals and after losing yesterday's game to the Royals having a 6-4 lead after 7, and a 6-5 lead after 8, should motivate them. I also like them getting that loss "out of the way".

Boston vs Houston
I'm sure everyone is familiar with the collapse of the Red Sox. 4-10 over last 14. They are now 3.5 games out of the wild card and a game below 0.500 now after being 11 games above 0.500 in late June. I can't imagine how bad the attitude is in their locker room these days. Boston does travel from the East coast for this game while the Astros remain at home for their 5th game in a row.

Eovaldi (BOS) has come apart his last 3 starts (15 ERs in 13 innings). Until he regroups and proves he can pitch again, I'm betting against him. Meanwhile Garcia (HOU) got a little lit up by the Athletics last time out but tbh, the Athletics have decided to start playing serious baseball since the break (7-4 against good teams) so its not a shocker. Otherwise Garcia has been solid.


2 Team Parlay NYY & Houston ML +124 BetOnline

I think I'll play this one

 

[Tanko]

Summary of plays tonight:

NYM RL -1.5 -145 BetOnline
CLE RL -1.5 +130 BetOnline
2 Team Parlay NYY & Houston ML +124 BetOnline

 

[Pimike]

Get em
Pal!!

 

[doofy]

I'm on the parlay too tanko.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Yankees threatening first inning

 

[Wagerallsports]

3-0 Yanks

No outs

 

[Wagerallsports]

Yankees about to deliver a beatdown