First off - have to go with JDS on his play with Baltimore.
Lots of factors indicating there is value on this +money play.
TOR @ BAL 7:05 ET
Starting Pitching:
Lyles (BAL) 4.40 ERA, 2.68 ERA at home vs
Kikutchi (TOR) 4.86 ERA, 5.74 ERA on road
I see the starting pitching with an edge to Lyle who pitches well at home. His last 4 starts at home were 23 IP, 6 ER --> 2.35 ERA. Kukutchi's last 4 starts on the road yielded 9 IP, 11 ER --> 11.00 ERA.
Batting:
Recent games batting data
TOR WRC+ 100, OPS 0.723, AVG 0.251 (vs Twins, Rays, Tigers)
BAL WRC+ 127, OPS 0.803, AVG 0.270 (vs Pirates, Rangers, Reds)
Both teams batting well of late with a slight edge to BAL but with a slightly easier schedule. Also, BAL is improving vs season average over this period while TOR is not. I like the momentum.
Relief Pitching:
On paper they are very evenly matched 3.17 ERA v 3.19 ERA.
I believe JDS pointed out that the Blue Jays pen is a little more used up than the Orioles and a I agree. Toronto used more pitches getting the series from Min than the O's did vs PIT.
Misc:
+money on Baltimore for this game is great value IMO. Blue Jays are tough but are 26-27 on the road while Orioles at 31-21 at home. Baltimore is +15 units at home while Toronto is -4 units on the road.
Good luck with your plays.
Baltimore ML +125 Jazz
Lots of factors indicating there is value on this +money play.
TOR @ BAL 7:05 ET
Starting Pitching:
Lyles (BAL) 4.40 ERA, 2.68 ERA at home vs
Kikutchi (TOR) 4.86 ERA, 5.74 ERA on road
I see the starting pitching with an edge to Lyle who pitches well at home. His last 4 starts at home were 23 IP, 6 ER --> 2.35 ERA. Kukutchi's last 4 starts on the road yielded 9 IP, 11 ER --> 11.00 ERA.
Batting:
Recent games batting data
TOR WRC+ 100, OPS 0.723, AVG 0.251 (vs Twins, Rays, Tigers)
BAL WRC+ 127, OPS 0.803, AVG 0.270 (vs Pirates, Rangers, Reds)
Both teams batting well of late with a slight edge to BAL but with a slightly easier schedule. Also, BAL is improving vs season average over this period while TOR is not. I like the momentum.
Relief Pitching:
On paper they are very evenly matched 3.17 ERA v 3.19 ERA.
I believe JDS pointed out that the Blue Jays pen is a little more used up than the Orioles and a I agree. Toronto used more pitches getting the series from Min than the O's did vs PIT.
Misc:
+money on Baltimore for this game is great value IMO. Blue Jays are tough but are 26-27 on the road while Orioles at 31-21 at home. Baltimore is +15 units at home while Toronto is -4 units on the road.
Good luck with your plays.
Baltimore ML +125 Jazz
