Tanko MLB Plays 7/22/22

[Tanko]

I'm seeing two games on the card with some value.

Houston @ Seattle
Seattle ML +105

Clev @ Chi White Sox
CWS ML -144

Write-ups coming shortly.

 

[Tanko]

First the easy one....

Houston @ Seattle: 10:10 ET
Seattle ML +105

Starting Pitching
Urquidy (HOU) vs Gonzales (SEA). Seattle has an edge w/ starting pitching today.

Urquidy has been hit well by Seattle in his 3 prior games against them.

• April 17th: 8H, 6 ER, 4 innings
• May 28th: 12H, 5 ER, 4.2 innings
• Jun 8th: 7H, 4 ER, 4.1 innings

Gonzales has faced Houston 3X this season:

• Apr 15th: 4H, 1 ER, 7 innings
• May 2nd 8H, 3 ER, 6 innings
• May 29th: 5H, 2 ER, 7.1 innings

Batting:
These teams are on par with each other for the season but over the last 2 weeks Seattle has pounded the ball much better than the Astros.

Seattle: WRC+ 110, OPS 0.715, AVG 00.239 (season)
Houston: WRC+ 119, OPS 0.761, AVG -.244 (season)

Seattle: WRC+ 119, OPS 0.756, AVG 0.248 (2 weeks)
Houston: WRC+ 90, OPS 0.656, AVG 0.226 (2 weeks)

Relief Pitching:
Houston has an edge on relief pitching 2.40 ERA vs 2.98 ERA.
Houston did use 5 relief pitchers in their double header against the Yankees yesterday but only Bielak was "used up".

Misc:
Aside from the stats shown above, the other major reasons I like Seattle today.

1. Houston just game off 2 big wins (double header) at home against the Yankees yesterday. This is a perfect opportunity for a let-down.
2. That means the Astros had a late travel night last night to go from Houston to Seattle.
3. Seattle is on a 14 game winning streak
4. Seattle is a slight dog in this game which adds value for a team I believe should be the Fav.

Seattle ML +105

 

[carolinakid]

Good luck with your friday action there sir

 

[Tanko]

Cleveland @ Chicago White Sox 8:10 ET

I'm liking CWS in this game. I'm not thrilled with the -144 ML but I do think they will win this game. I would have expected a closer line and it has dropped from -164 open to -144. This game might be a stretch but I'm going to go with Giolito & the White Sox.

Starting Pitching:
Giolito (CWS) vs Quantrill (CLE).
Statistically Quantrill has a slight edge: 3.75 ERA vs Giolito 4.69 ERA.
But recently Quantrill faced the White Sox 11 days ago: 8H, 4 ER, 6 innings.
Giolito faced Cleveland 8 days ago: 5H, 0 ER, 6.1 innings.

Batting:
Pretty evenly matched teams.
CWS: WRC+ 101, OPS 0.702, AVG 0.261
CLE: WRC+ 103, OPS 0.713, AVG 0.253

Relief Pitching:
Statistically its close between these teams (CLE 3.31 ERA, CWS 3.42 ERA).

Not as confident in this one as the Seattle play but still believe I have a winner.

CWS ML -144

 

[Tanko]

Good luck with your friday action there sir

Thanks CK.
Good luck on your plays.

 

[JDS]

First the easy one....

Houston @ Seattle: 10:10 ET
Seattle ML +105

Starting Pitching
Urquidy (HOU) vs Gonzales (SEA). Seattle has an edge w/ starting pitching today.

Urquidy has been hit well by Seattle in his 3 prior games against them.

• April 17th: 8H, 6 ER, 4 innings
• May 28th: 12H, 5 ER, 4.2 innings
• Jun 8th: 7H, 4 ER, 4.1 innings

Gonzales has faced Houston 3X this season:

• Apr 15th: 4H, 1 ER, 7 innings
• May 2nd 8H, 3 ER, 6 innings
• May 29th: 5H, 2 ER, 7.1 innings

Batting:
These teams are on par with each other for the season but over the last 2 weeks Seattle has pounded the ball much better than the Astros.

Seattle: WRC+ 110, OPS 0.715, AVG 00.239 (season)
Houston: WRC+ 119, OPS 0.761, AVG -.244 (season)

Seattle: WRC+ 119, OPS 0.756, AVG 0.248 (2 weeks)
Houston: WRC+ 90, OPS 0.656, AVG 0.226 (2 weeks)

Relief Pitching:
Houston has an edge on relief pitching 2.40 ERA vs 2.98 ERA.
Houston did use 5 relief pitchers in their double header against the Yankees yesterday but only Bielak was "used up".

Misc:
Aside from the stats shown above, the other major reasons I like Seattle today.

1. Houston just game off 2 big wins (double header) at home against the Yankees yesterday. This is a perfect opportunity for a let-down.
2. That means the Astros had a late travel night last night to go from Houston to Seattle.
3. Seattle is on a 14 game winning streak
4. Seattle is a slight dog in this game which adds value for a team I believe should be the Fav.

Seattle ML +105

Impressive write-up Tanko, you would get more replies & views if this was in chit chat for real.

 

[JDS]

Never mind I misspoke.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Thanks tanks for your efforts in writeups

 

[Wagerallsports]

I think I'll follow you in with just for action

 

[JDS]

Thanks tanks for your efforts in writeups

Definitely for Tanko.

 

[Tanko]

I think I'll follow you in with just for action

Alright. Alright. Alright. Lets get this one tontight Wager.