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Tanko - CFB Plays 2025

JDS

JDS

Joined
Dec 11, 2021
Messages
54,996
I'll post my CFB plays here. Might sprinkle in a NFL play or two but not really focused on that league.

Historical performance --> About a breakeven bettor...

2018 CFB +20 units
2019 CFB +42 units
2020 CFB +9 units (abbreviated season - covid))
2021 CFB +16 units
2022 CFB +12.4 units
2023 CFB +3 units
2024 CFB +1 unit
CFB is probably your strength Tanko.
 

JDS

JDS

Joined
Dec 11, 2021
Messages
54,996
CFB is my favorite sport.
I could lose money on it and still wouldn't give it up.
In 2019 when you won +42 units were you betting one unit at a time or multiple units ?
 

BMR Genie

BMR Genie

Joined
Jun 16, 2016
Messages
40,906
Good luck this season, Tank! :cheers:

I'll post my CFB plays here. Might sprinkle in a NFL play or two but not really focused on that league.

Historical performance --> About a breakeven bettor...

2018 CFB +20 units
2019 CFB +42 units
2020 CFB +9 units (abbreviated season - covid))
2021 CFB +16 units
2022 CFB +12.4 units
2023 CFB +3 units
2024 CFB +1 unit
What a great run!
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
55,072
I don't have any plays for tomorrow's games but here are a couple of thoughts on them.

ISU/KSU
This is pretty evenly matched game.
  • 2024 power ratings were about even (10.6 vs 11.0)
  • Transfer portal ratings during off-season were about even (24.3 vs 24.5)
  • KSU has 64% returning starters on both sides of the ball. ISU 55% on both sides of the ball.
    Key players (QB, O-Line, etc..)
  • Both extremely well coached teams so they should be ready to go.
Tough to see which team will catch the breaks and win the game. Gun to my head, I'd take the points and get 3.5 if the hook is cheap enough. Barring something crazy happening, this should be a 1 score game IMO.


Stanford/Hawaii
Hawaii should win and cover the 2.5.
  • Standford has has some crazy off-season stuff that can't help their cause.
    • QB Transferred, 2 WRs transferred, 2 LBs Transferred.
  • Coach fired and accused of sexual mistreatment of a staff member
  • Frank Reich (yep the NFL coach - never coached college before) takes over in interim only.
  • 3-9 record over last 2 years. Tough to recruit when you play that poorly and the team is basically in rebuilding mode.
  • Hawaii kept the core of its offense intact.
A lot of statistical data says Stanford to win but most of those models don't factor in the off-season insanity. Hawaii should cover this spread.


Again I have no plays on these games. Just pointing out some info.
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
55,072
First plays for the year....

Colorado +4.5 -109 Bet105
Ohio St. -2.5 -107 Bet 105


Colorado
There's a slight advantage for G. Tech on the returning starters but Colorado's has a great transfer portal score. Combining these with EOY FPI ratings from 2024 and I think Colorado has a very slight edge.
I have the Col/G. Tech game as a toss up so I'm taking the points.

The +4.5 pts creates a 10%+ EV in my model which is a automatic play.

Ohio St.
Texas has the edge on returning power. The transfer portal was about even on these teams. I can't see Ohio St. losing at home in this game. Was looking at ML play but since the line is -2.5 -107 there wasn't much value in moving to the ML. Home field here is key.
 
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