piratealew
- Joined
- Feb 20, 2024
- Messages
- 3,146
Let's win some more on Sunday
728-643YTD/ (379-317 Top plays) Umpire Overs=40-20
⭐️Baltimore-128
⭐️Royals-112
⭐️Phillies-138
⭐️Cubs-120 (F5 ML)
⭐️Cleveland-105
⭐️Braves/Nats Over 9-120 (Umpire Over-See writeup)
⭐️Astros-146
⭐️Rockies/Cards Over 8-120
⭐️Yankees+110
⭐️Texas-150
⭐️Phils/Mutts Over 10.5-120
⭐️Red Sox-1-120
Padres-129
Cardinals-1-118
Tigers-1-110
Pittsburgh+100
Braves-1-125
Cleveland/Miami Over 8-125
Seattle/KC Over 7-135 (Umpire Over-See writeup)
Oakland+112
Houston/LAA Over 8-120
Cubs/Reds Over 8.5-120
Minn/Pitt Over 7.5-120
***First Umpire Over is Bravos/Nats Over 9 with one of my favorite hitter friendly umps, Andy Fletcher. He is a a whopping 83.3% to the over with a 10-2-1 to the over record in 13 games on an astounding 12.3 runs per game, and a whopping almost 9 walks per game, with a terrible 1.89 SO/BB ratio, on an extremely low 61.7% called strikes (63-65% is more hitter friendly, even less is much better for hitter). The ERA for his games is a whopping 5.7 ERA.
Only 2 of his games have gone under the total hitting 8 or one less, going 10, 10, 14, 8, 9, 11, 9, 18, 9, 16, 8, 12, 26. With 2 rookie pitchers called up from triple A, and a veteran star laden lineup like Atlanta going against Herz with a 9 ERA, I expect runs from Altanta and also washington who is also starting a call-up. In one MLB game for Wash starter Herz he gave up 4 runs in 4 innings to a weak Mets offense. With Andy squeezing these rookies on the corners and the plate, I expect both teams to pack in some runs, unless they are hung over from partying in Foggy Bottom DC last night.
***2nd Umpire Over is Seattle/KC Over 7-with Tony Randazzo who has a long history of being a hitter friendly ump going back years (in 2021 in 59 games he posted an avg 11.08 Runs per game. He is 7-5 to the over this year but averages a high almost 10 runs per game, with a 2.29 SO/BB ratio, with nearly 8 walks a game, and 63% called strikes. The ERA for his games is also very high at 4.8. His games have gone 11, 14, 14, 4, 8, 4, 6, 11, 17, 7, 9, 13. Only 3 have gone under today's total with 1 pushing. These 2 teams have been slugging it out last 2 games combining for 31 runs in 2 games, both games going well past the overs even with solid pitchers on the mound. I like this to continue especially with Randazzo helping matters behind home plate. Interestingly through his whole career as an ump he is calling about 12% fewer strikeouts than average peer umpires, and about 12% more walks issued.
728-643YTD/ (379-317 Top plays) Umpire Overs=40-20
⭐️Baltimore-128
⭐️Royals-112
⭐️Phillies-138
⭐️Cubs-120 (F5 ML)
⭐️Cleveland-105
⭐️Braves/Nats Over 9-120 (Umpire Over-See writeup)
⭐️Astros-146
⭐️Rockies/Cards Over 8-120
⭐️Yankees+110
⭐️Texas-150
⭐️Phils/Mutts Over 10.5-120
⭐️Red Sox-1-120
Padres-129
Cardinals-1-118
Tigers-1-110
Pittsburgh+100
Braves-1-125
Cleveland/Miami Over 8-125
Seattle/KC Over 7-135 (Umpire Over-See writeup)
Oakland+112
Houston/LAA Over 8-120
Cubs/Reds Over 8.5-120
Minn/Pitt Over 7.5-120
***First Umpire Over is Bravos/Nats Over 9 with one of my favorite hitter friendly umps, Andy Fletcher. He is a a whopping 83.3% to the over with a 10-2-1 to the over record in 13 games on an astounding 12.3 runs per game, and a whopping almost 9 walks per game, with a terrible 1.89 SO/BB ratio, on an extremely low 61.7% called strikes (63-65% is more hitter friendly, even less is much better for hitter). The ERA for his games is a whopping 5.7 ERA.
Only 2 of his games have gone under the total hitting 8 or one less, going 10, 10, 14, 8, 9, 11, 9, 18, 9, 16, 8, 12, 26. With 2 rookie pitchers called up from triple A, and a veteran star laden lineup like Atlanta going against Herz with a 9 ERA, I expect runs from Altanta and also washington who is also starting a call-up. In one MLB game for Wash starter Herz he gave up 4 runs in 4 innings to a weak Mets offense. With Andy squeezing these rookies on the corners and the plate, I expect both teams to pack in some runs, unless they are hung over from partying in Foggy Bottom DC last night.
***2nd Umpire Over is Seattle/KC Over 7-with Tony Randazzo who has a long history of being a hitter friendly ump going back years (in 2021 in 59 games he posted an avg 11.08 Runs per game. He is 7-5 to the over this year but averages a high almost 10 runs per game, with a 2.29 SO/BB ratio, with nearly 8 walks a game, and 63% called strikes. The ERA for his games is also very high at 4.8. His games have gone 11, 14, 14, 4, 8, 4, 6, 11, 17, 7, 9, 13. Only 3 have gone under today's total with 1 pushing. These 2 teams have been slugging it out last 2 games combining for 31 runs in 2 games, both games going well past the overs even with solid pitchers on the mound. I like this to continue especially with Randazzo helping matters behind home plate. Interestingly through his whole career as an ump he is calling about 12% fewer strikeouts than average peer umpires, and about 12% more walks issued.
Padres-129
