Bettors boost bankrolls banking on NFL disparity
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The NFL prides itself on parity. That on any given Sunday, any team can win.
But the league has seen a large gap between good teams and bad teams this season, and the betting public has profited from the disparity.
Nine teams had two wins after Week 9 — which was the most with two wins or fewer at that point since 2006 — and eight teams have three wins or fewer through Week 13.
On the flip side, seven teams have nine wins or more, and 12 have eight or more.
The public typically bets favorites, and their faith has been rewarded. Favorites have a slight winning record against the spread, going 96-91-6 (51.3 percent) with three pick’ems. But they have won almost 70 percent of the games straight up, going 134-59 (69.4 percent).
That has boosted the bankrolls of bettors who wager on favorites in money-line parlays, where the teams simply have to win, and teasers, where bettors can move the point spread by six or seven points or more.
Parlays and teasers are typically a big money winner for sportsbooks, which historically hold, or win, about 20 percent of the total money wagered on them. But that hasn’t been the case this season.
"The last two months, we’re losing money on parlays and teasers, which is almost impossible to believe,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said. “It’s just been the players’ year, that’s all. Give them credit. They’ve been winning.
“These bad teams just seemingly can’t win games that they’ve had a million chances to win. You can write a book on what’s happened this year on how these bad teams just find ways not to win these games.”
In Week 13 alone, the Raiders (2-10), Panthers (3-9), Patriots (3-10) and Bears (4-8) snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
The Raiders were in position to kick a winning field goal against the Chiefs when they botched a snap, and Kansas City recovered the fumble to deal them their eighth straight defeat.
Carolina was in position to kick a winning field goal in overtime against the Saints when it lost a fumble, and Chicago was poised to kick a tying field goal against the Lions in the final seconds when it inexplicably let the clock run out.
Sportsbooks also have taken hits on countless missed field goals. For example, bettors were all over the Ravens over the Bengals in Week 5 when Baltimore rallied for a 41-38 overtime win and cover. Cincinnati settled for a 53-yard field goal to win the game in overtime, but Evan McPherson missed it.
In Week 10, the Broncos appeared to be on the cusp of handing the Chiefs their first loss when Will Lutz’s 35-yard field-goal attempt was blocked on the final play.
“It’s just amazing how many games this year that the books have needed where they missed the field goal every time,” Salmons said.
Bettors deal blow to DraftKings
The public dealt sportsbook giant DraftKings (which doesn’t operate in Nevada) a blow in early November that caused its stock market shares to drop as much as 7 percent after the company made a downward revision in its 2024 revenue.
"Customer-friendly sport outcomes resulted in headwinds of $250 million and $175 million to our fiscal year 2024 revenue,” DraftKings CEO Jason Robins wrote in a letter to shareholders.
He added that it was “the most customer-friendly stretch of NFL sport outcomes we have ever seen.”
‘Huge gap right now’
Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said it’s also been “kind of a down year for us in the NFL and a good year for the public” at Station Sports.
“The first couple of weeks there seemed to be a lot of parity, but I would say there is a huge gap right now,” he said. “There’s some really good teams and, especially from our world, there are teams that are bet-ons every week and teams that are bet-againsts every week. We find ourselves rooting for or against those teams on a weekly basis.
“I think a lot of it is driven by a lot of young quarterbacks in the league. We clearly have seen that this year there’s a huge divide.”
Esposito said guests typically bet against the Raiders, Panthers and Patriots, and bet on the Lions and Bills.
“The public is not afraid to lay a big number on some favorites because of the disparity in talent,” he said. “Or what they perceive that to be right now.”
