Well, you were pretty much spot on.
Regardless of whether Josh fumbled or not right at the end of the first half with only 20 seconds left and no time outs, if the fired Bills' head coach didn't try something stupid instead of just kneeling and go to the 2nd half, the Bills could have won without having to go to the OT.
Giving up that 3 points turned out to be pretty critical to the outcome.
Honestly, the Bills should have won that game which then Dougy is still alive with his futures bet and all your higher rated teams won. I feel terrible how the Bills lost that game. I wasn't on the game, since it was just too close for me to bet on but I wish McDermott would have called to just kneel and go into the 2nd half.