AFC Wild Card
Bills -115
I have been impressed with the heater Jacksonville is on. They are probably the better team in this match-up if you are looking up and down the rosters. But I don’t love them in this particular spot.
While the run has been impressive — winning 8 straight is tough in the NFL no matter what — the strength of schedule down the stretch has to be considered. Outside of the Denver game, it’s pretty been weak. That’s not necessarily a negative, but playing against a QB like Allen and a solid offense with a Pro Bowl RB and good tight ends could be a challenge.
The most interesting stat difference is yards/play. Buffalo averages nearly 1 more yard per play than Jacksonville despite being less dependent on the pass game. That’s a pretty big difference. Now Jacksonville allows about 0.6 yards per play less defensively — can’t be ignored. But it seems like some of that difference could be inflated by the weak opponents down the stretch.
Lawrence has been good recently but overall this season has been pretty mediocre. I don’t think the Jags have enough juice in the running game to exploit the Bills’ obvious weakness there. Conversely, while I respect the Jags run defense quite a bit I think the Bills are uniquely built to challenge that weakness with Allen/Cook. And I would expect Allen will “let loose” a little more than normal, assuming he’s close to 100%.
There are a lot of “intangible” reasons to like the Bills. Buffalo has a pretty unique opportunity here with no Mahomes or Burrow in the picture. Allen is now the clear best quarterback in the playoffs. I think there’s a lot of urgency for Buffalo, especially both for Allen and McDermott. Neither have won a playoff road game, though they’ve been in Orchard Park quite a bit in the Wild Card Round. While the Lawrence has been on this stage and had “some” success, I think the experience and urgency here favors Buffalo.
Might be more of a “vibes” pick to some degree, but I think there is pretty good value here on the Bills.
