Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 11 college football picks, bets, nuggets

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Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 11 college football picks, bets, nuggets​

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"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica cover the college football season as only they can, offering their top picks, betting nuggets and totals worth wagering on.

Records:
The Bear (Last week: 3-3. Season: 19-31)
Stanford Steve (Last week: 5-1. Season: 31-23)

Note: All lines are from Caesars Sportsbook.

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The Plays​

No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners (-5.5, 62) at No. 13 Baylor Bears

Fallica: I like the fact the number dropped .5 point and I like the fact OU played what I think was its most complete game of the season in its last game vs. Texas Tech. Caleb Williams has been the biggest impact player in college football this year and I sense he again will have a Heisman-worthy moment Saturday in the early kick in Waco. OU is well aware this is an upset trap and that it has its future in its hands and I suspect they will show up off the idle week with a great effort.

Pick: Oklahoma -5.5

Georgia State Panthers at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (-10.5, 52)

Stanford Steve: It looks as if Grayson McCall, the Chants quarterback, will be out for this one. He didn't play last week and Bryce Carpenter stepped in and got the job done in what were horrific weather conditions. When I look at the Panthers, I really like what their head coach Sean Elliott does week in and week out in getting his team prepared to play. They battled Auburn earlier in the year and could have won (led in 4th quarter) and last game they gave Louisiana all they could handle, eventually losing 21-17. I think the Panthers hang around here. We'll take the points and the road team.

Pick: Georgia State +10.5 (Coastal Carolina 21, Georgia State 17)

No. 11 Texas A&M Aggies (-2.5, 56.5) at No. 15 Ole Miss Rebels

Stanford Steve: The Aggies have a big advantage on both lines of scrimmage in this matchup. Most of the time a good offensive line and defensive line travel for road games. Matt Corral probably still won't be 100% but he is still as talented as there is, but will he be able to avoid trouble when it arises? We'll have to wait and see. I do expect Ole Miss to come out on fire and take chances all over the field, so A&M will have to withstand the early fury, but I think they can with controlling both lines of scrimmage. We'll take the road team and give the points

Pick: Texas A&M -2.5 (Texas A&M 30, Ole Miss 24)

Washington State Cougars at No. 3 Oregon Ducks (-14, 57)

Fallica: Tricky spot for Oregon, which has been an awful favorite under Mario Cristobal, especially at Autzen Stadium. Last week the Ducks beat their biggest rival in an ugly, bad weather game in Seattle which saw Anthony Brown struggle. Next week is one Oregon must have in Utah if it is to keep its playoff hopes alive. In comes pesky two-touchdown dog Wazzu, which has played very well since Nick Rolovich's firing. Much credit to the coaches that remain getting the Cougs ready to play, and the players who have rallied. It might not be enough to pull the outright upset, but I think 14 is a tad high.

Pick: Washington State +14

No. 5 Cincinnati Bearcats (-23.5, 57) at South Florida Bulls

Fallica: One of these weeks the Bearcats will put a complete game together. Last week may have been a bit too much for them -- first week of the rankings, GameDay in town -- now they face one of the worst teams in the league. They know where they stand in the CFP -- they actually moved up a spot despite the scare -- and should be able to name their score vs. the Bulls.

Pick: Cincinnati -23.5

No. 16 NC State Wolfpack at No. 12 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-1.5, 66.5)

Fallica: Often when a team suffers its first loss, there is a letdown the following week as well. NC State's defense will offer Wake Forest a much stiffer test than UNC did last week and I expect the physicality of NC State to walk out with a win.

Pick: NC State +1.5

Stanford Cardinal at Oregon State Beavers (-12.5, 55.5)

Stanford Steve: The season has not gone as some hoped in Palo Alto. Now, David Shaw might do something he has never done as a head coach... start a true freshman quarterback. I'll take the home team and give the points.

Pick: Oregon State -12.5 (Oregon State 34, Stanford 10)

Fallica: Beavers a great opportunity to bounce back from an embarrassing loss and put a big number up on a team which doesn't seem capable of scoring without McKee at quarterback.

Pick: Oregon State -12.5

Syracuse Orange at Louisville Cardinals (-3, 55.5)

Fallica: The Orange have been an ATM this year, covering every game. I don't expect that trend to stop here as Syracuse has the better defense, the better RB in Sean Tucker, and may face a Louisville team without Malik Cunnigham.

Pick: Syracuse +3

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The Bear's money-line parlay​

Last Week: -200
Season: -909

$100 returns $152

Cincinnati Bearcats -2000
Wisconsin Badgers -2400
Utah Utes -2400
Appalachian State Mountaineers -2000
UCLA Bruins -750
Oregon State Beavers -450
Iowa State Cyclones -400
Kentucky Wildcats -1600
Georgia Bulldogs -1450
Ohio State Buckeyes -1450

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The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line​

Last Week: 1-5, -3.6 units
Season: 23-40, +2.6 units

Syracuse Orange +135
Washington Huskies +190
Charlotte 49ers +215
Nevada Wolf Pack +125
NC State Wolfpack +110

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Bear bytes​

New Mexico State Aggies at No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide

Dating back to 1989, 50-point favorites in FBS vs. FBS games are 3-14 ATS. Alabama hasn't covered either of their two games in this spot, including as a 55-point favorite over the Aggies is 2019.

No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners at No. 13 Baylor Bears

Baylor is 5-0 ATS at home this year, including an outright win over Iowa State in the only instance the Bears were a home dog. Under Lincoln Riley, OU is 5-12-1 ATS with two outright losses as a road favorite. Six of the last seven such games have been decided by seven points or fewer (4-2 W-L).

No. 19 Purdue Boilermakers at No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes

In 25 games as an underdog under Jeff Brohm, the Boilermakers are 18-7 ATS with 10 outright wins. That includes a 7-1 ATS mark with two outright wins as a double-digit dog.

With a win, Purdue can become the 8th team to defeat three AP Top 6 teams in a single regular season and the first to do it as an unranked team in any of the three.


In the last two weeks, Ohio State has scored just two TD in nine red zone trips (23 TD in 29 drives in first seven games). C.J. Stroud has a QBR of 8.6 in the red zone in that span (78 prior to the last two games)

Washington State Cougars at No. 3 Oregon Ducks

Oregon is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite and has failed to cover seven straight games as a double-digit favorite.lsu

Dating back to 2010, Washington State has covered 10 of the last 11 meetings.

Maryland Terrapins at No. 7 Michigan State Spartans

Maryland is 2-9 ATS vs. ranked teams under Mike Locksley and has failed to cover eight straight Big Ten games.

Dating back to 2018, Michigan State is 3-11 ATS with four outright losses as a double-digit favorite (1-2, one outright loss under Mel Tucker).

No. 11 Texas A&M Aggies at No. 15 Ole Miss Rebels

The Aggies have covered eight straight as a road favorite (7-0 ATS under Jimbo Fisher)

No. 25 Arkansas Razorbacks at LSU Tigers

Arkansas is 1-14 outright in road games since 2018, (1-6 under Sam Pittman).

Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Tech Hokies

The Hokies are 2-7 ATS with six outright losses in their last nine games as a favorite. In addition, Tech is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a double-digit favorite.

TCU Horned Frogs at No. 10 Oklahoma State Cowboys

The Cowboys have covered seven straight since a five-point win over Tulsa. Oklahoma State has not allowed more than 24 points in a game this year.

No. 6 Michigan Wolverines at Penn State Nittany Lions

Under James Franklin, Penn State is just 2-12 vs. AP Top 10 opponents. Michigan under Jim Harbaugh, isn't much better, as the Wolverines are 2-9 on the road vs. ranked teams. However, both wins came against teams ranked in the 20-25 range.

Michigan could use a better start in State College. In their last two trips, the Wolverines have been outscored 21-0 and outgained 318-133 in the first quarter.

Samford Bulldogs at Florida Gators

Of the 48 Power 5 teams to play at least eight games vs. Power 5 teams Since December 6, 2020, only Missouri (1-7) has a worse record than Florida (2-8). Colorado and Nebraska are also 2-8 in that span.


Worst Win Percentage vs. Power 5 Teams Among Power 5 since December 6, 2020:

Missouri 1-7, .124
Florida 2-8, .200
Colorado 2-8, .200
Nebraska 2-8, .200

Miami Hurricanes at Florida State Seminoles

The Hurricanes are seeking their fifth straight win over FSU, that coming on the heels of a seven-game losing streak to the Seminoles. Miami last won five straight vs. FSU from 2000-2004.

Miami's last five games have been decided by a combined 13 points. The Canes have failed to cover five straight and seven of eight as a favorite vs. FBS opponents.

Northwestern Wildcats at No. 18 Wisconsin Badgers

In its last five games, Wisconsin has allowed 3 touchdowns and forced 13 turnovers. The Badgers have won those five games by 23.2 PPG.