Bryan Power
Date/Time: Jan 1 2025 5:00 PM EST
Line Provider: DraftKings
Play Rating: 5%
Odds: -115
Play: Ohio State -115
5% Ohio State (5:00 ET): This line opened way too low and (as you can see) I immediately pounced on it. Would play the ML up to -140, but am also not opposed to just laying the points (up to -6). I figured, coming in, that this matchup had a chance to be the biggest (non-transfer portal related) discrepancy between my own power ratings and the oddsmakers. Ohio State (who have power rated #1 in the country) closed -3.5 AT Oregon earlier this year. Now, on a neutral field, we’re able to get a better number.
That is of course because Oregon won the regular season meeting, but it was a total coin flip game (32-31 final) that saw Ohio State run out of time at the end due to some (how shall we say) “shenanigans” from Ducks’ HC Dan Lanning. The Buckeyes led most of that game (largest lead was 8 pts) while Oregon never led by more than 1. There were also two OSU turnovers in that game that led to 10 points for Oregon. I suspect we’ll get a “cleaner” game from the Buckeyes here.
Now, it’s easy to have recency bias after how dominant Ohio State looked against Tennessee in the first round. That was a home game. But, to me, the layoff is not necessarily going to be a benefit to the four teams that received first round byes. Believe it or not, but I would make Oregon an underdog to four of the other seven teams left in the CFP. I’ll have more analysis as we get closer to kickoff, but wanted to get this play out ASAP as it’s based on two simple things: (1) I think Ohio State is the better team and (2) I make the number several points higher. 5% Ohio State (Play ML to -140, Play spread to -6)