Andy Lang
5% Kansas St -245 ML (v Rutgers) + Bowling Green -298 ML (v Arkansas St) Final Price -116
Kansas St -245 v Rutgers
I think this is too big of a difference in class so we’ll take Kansas St to get the outright win. Kansas St is 8-4 with their losses being to good teams like Iowa State and Arizona State while Rutgers is 7-5 with two of their wins being against Howard and Akron. Rutgers depends on their running game on offense, but Kansas State is 26th against the run so I don’t see Rutgers having a lot of success, and the Rutgers passing game is not explosive at all. QB Athan Kaliakmanis only has one game this season with over 20 completions, and that was a game they got beat 42-20 against USC. The Rutgers rush defense got worse as the season went on as they allow 5 yards per rush so I expect success for Kansas St on the ground, and if Kansas St gets a lead, Rutgers just doesn’t have an explosive offense to play catch up. Kansas St ranks higher than Rutgers in yards gained per game and yards allowed per game, I like them to get the win here.
Bowling Green -298 v Arkansas St
Arkansas St has 7 wins this season and 6 of those wins have been by a combined 25 points while they have 5 losses this season by a combined 131 points so when they are up against a better opponent, they tend to get beat pretty handily. Bowling Green played Penn St to a one score game, as well as 25th ranked Texas A&M, and they finished the season winning 5 out of their last 6 games. Arkansas St’s defense is not good as they’re 132n in yards per rush and 117th in yards per pass where Bowling green is 20th in yards allowed per game. This game is a -7.5 spread, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bowling Green win by more than that, but for the purposes of this wager we just need them to win outright.
