Unbreakabull
- Joined
- Oct 21, 2021
- Messages
- 15,077
Marco
E* - Rams -4
SportsLine Projection Model
Sunday, Feb. 13
Rams 25, Bengals 23
Spread Pick:
Bengals +4
The Bengals cover in 53% of simulations
Over-Under Pick:
Under 49
The Under hits in 56% of simulations
Al McMordie
NFL PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR! - Rams Over 48.5 -104
RAMS/BENGALS SUPER BOWL WINNER! - Bengals +4.5
Teddy Covers SB
E* - Cin
Potato Kmish
Rams -190
Under 49
HITMAN | NFL Prop - Sunday, Feb 13 2022 6:30PM
Akers O
(-115)William Hill 101 LOS vs 102 CIN single-dime bet
Analysis: Cam Akers (LAR) O59.5 rush yards -115 (Consensus)
Akers has become the bell cow for the Rams, and inefficiency has held him back from big statistical games.
However, part of the reason for that inefficiency is the fact that he’s played against the Bucs and 49ers elite run defenses for 37 of his 54 carries this post season. Cincinnati is 24th in the NFL in YPC allowed.
In a game where the Rams are nearly 2-1 favorites to win, game script shouldn’t get away from us, and McVay has shown throughout his tenure as the Rams head coach to be a one back coach. Akers once again dominated snaps in the NFC championship game until an in game shoulder injury cost him snaps.
Number is to low for a player getting Akers type of usage, and I would have made this number closer to the mid to high sixties.
Pregame .com, 5860 S. Pecos Rd Ste 400, Las Vegas, NV
HITMAN | NFL MoneyLine - Sunday, Feb 13 2022 6:30PM
ML 101 LOS (-185)Southpoint vs 102 CIN single-dime bet
Analysis:
Personally, I am going to wait to play this. The Super Bowl favorite money line typically gets bet down on Game Day due to the books having liability on the underdog money line. However, I wanted to get this pick out early for everyone, so it will be graded at -185.
This isn't a big edge, and as you all know, the biggest edge we will have will be on the props. I am going to have official props and also send some "unofficial props" which will mostly consist of some rogue numbers that I hit that aren't widely available enough to make official. However, if you have access to some of those props, go ahead and bet them if the price is similar!
HITMAN | NFL Prop - Sunday, Feb 13 2022 6:30PM
Jefferson U
(-110)William Hill 101 LOS vs 102 CIN single-dime bet
Analysis:
Van Jefferson (LAR) U2.5 receptions -120 (Consensus)
Jefferson has went under this number in 7 of his previous 8 games, and has only been seeing 3.5 targets per game in those contests. This line closed -150 in the NFC championship game and Jefferson still went under despite Stafford attempting 45 passes in that game. I see no reason for why this line isn’t similar to last weeks closing line on Jefferson.
E* - Rams -4
SportsLine Projection Model
Sunday, Feb. 13
Rams 25, Bengals 23
Spread Pick:
Bengals +4
The Bengals cover in 53% of simulations
Over-Under Pick:
Under 49
The Under hits in 56% of simulations
Al McMordie
NFL PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR! - Rams Over 48.5 -104
RAMS/BENGALS SUPER BOWL WINNER! - Bengals +4.5
Teddy Covers SB
E* - Cin
Potato Kmish
Rams -190
Under 49
HITMAN | NFL Prop - Sunday, Feb 13 2022 6:30PM
Akers O
(-115)William Hill 101 LOS vs 102 CIN single-dime bet
Analysis: Cam Akers (LAR) O59.5 rush yards -115 (Consensus)
Akers has become the bell cow for the Rams, and inefficiency has held him back from big statistical games.
However, part of the reason for that inefficiency is the fact that he’s played against the Bucs and 49ers elite run defenses for 37 of his 54 carries this post season. Cincinnati is 24th in the NFL in YPC allowed.
In a game where the Rams are nearly 2-1 favorites to win, game script shouldn’t get away from us, and McVay has shown throughout his tenure as the Rams head coach to be a one back coach. Akers once again dominated snaps in the NFC championship game until an in game shoulder injury cost him snaps.
Number is to low for a player getting Akers type of usage, and I would have made this number closer to the mid to high sixties.
Pregame .com, 5860 S. Pecos Rd Ste 400, Las Vegas, NV
HITMAN | NFL MoneyLine - Sunday, Feb 13 2022 6:30PM
ML 101 LOS (-185)Southpoint vs 102 CIN single-dime bet
Analysis:
Personally, I am going to wait to play this. The Super Bowl favorite money line typically gets bet down on Game Day due to the books having liability on the underdog money line. However, I wanted to get this pick out early for everyone, so it will be graded at -185.
This isn't a big edge, and as you all know, the biggest edge we will have will be on the props. I am going to have official props and also send some "unofficial props" which will mostly consist of some rogue numbers that I hit that aren't widely available enough to make official. However, if you have access to some of those props, go ahead and bet them if the price is similar!
HITMAN | NFL Prop - Sunday, Feb 13 2022 6:30PM
Jefferson U
(-110)William Hill 101 LOS vs 102 CIN single-dime bet
Analysis:
Van Jefferson (LAR) U2.5 receptions -120 (Consensus)
Jefferson has went under this number in 7 of his previous 8 games, and has only been seeing 3.5 targets per game in those contests. This line closed -150 in the NFC championship game and Jefferson still went under despite Stafford attempting 45 passes in that game. I see no reason for why this line isn’t similar to last weeks closing line on Jefferson.
