Sports Betting Service Plays - Sunday 1/22/23

[Over Under]

3* Dallas +4

 

[Over Under]

Jim Feist

NFL GOY - SF

 

[Over Under]

Matt Fargo

Playoff GOY 49ers -3.5 ​

Sean Murphy
10* GOY 49ers -3.5

Doc's Sports
10* 49ers -3.5

 

[Over Under]

Jeff Hochman

E* NFL Best Bet

Buffalo Bills -5

 

[Over Under]

Jim Feist

NFL Game of the Year

9* 49ers -4
The Dallas Cowboys sent Tom Brady and the Bucs home with their dominating performance in the Wild Card game last week, 31-14. Dak Prescot was red-hot, throwing four TD's and running in another. Now the Cowboys will hit the road for this Divisional game at San Francisco. The 49ers are the hottest team with 11 straight wins and QB Brock Purdy, last man in the draft taken last year, now proving his worth. The 49ers are the best defense in the league and lead in point differential with a +10.6 mark. Don't put a lot of stock into that Cowboys win last week, the Bucs have looked bad all season as they limped into the playoff spot with a losing record. Dallas actually has the short week to prepare having played on Monday night. I expect the 49ers to be run heavy in this game with Christian McCaffrey carrying the load. This team is filled with weapons on offense and the Cowboys won't have the cake walk they had last week. Also, the 49ers defense will give Dak plenty of problems here this week. I look for a higher scoring game here if the weather permits and the 49ers in a blowout win. My Playoff Game of the Year is on the San Francisco 49ers.

 

[Over Under]

Marc Lawrence

17-0 ATS NFL Divisional Kill Play!!

C* New York Giants +7.5

Edges - Giants: 11-2 ATS as a dog under head coach Brian Daboll, including 8-0 ATS against foes not coming off a double-digit win; and playoff dogs of more than 6 points seeking same season-double revenge are 7-2-1 ATS, including 4-0 ATS versus foes coming off an ATS loss … Eagles: 1-5 ATS last six games as a host in this series; and 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in the playoffs versus division foes, including 0-3 ATS as a favorite … We seal the deal noting that this game is actually a right-back rematch for the Eagles who beat the Giants, 22-16 the final week of the regular season. Our ‘Well Oiled Machine’ notes that teams seeking same-season revenge in Divisional Round games are 13-2-1 ATS since 1995 versus foes coming off an ATS loss, including 6-0-1 ATS when the avenging team is coming off a won of 10 or fewer points… With that we recommend a 3* play on the NY Giants. Thank you and good luck as always.

 

[Over Under]

Totals Guru

Bengals vs. Bills O 48

 

[Over Under]

The Hitman

NFL

A* Josh Allen (BUF) Over 45.5 Rush Yds -20

 

[Over Under]

Gianni the greek

315) ja'marr chase (cin) : Over 7.5 (-105) pass receptions…(2%)

 

[Over Under]

Cowherd's Blazin' 4...3-2 last week

Jags +8 1/2
(20-28)

Giants +7 1/2
(20-27)

Bills -5 1/2
(31-23)

Cowboys +3 1/2

 

[Over Under]

Wayne Root

Reserve: Bills -5.5
Pinnacle: Cowboys +4

 

[Over Under]

Jeff Ma

bills -5.5
49ers -3.5

 

[Over Under]

Root

Sunday 3:00 pm est


Root Reserve——Buffalo

Buffalo started out very strong against Miami, but turnovers allowed the Dolphins to get back into the game. The Bengals skated by Baltimore and if it wasn't for the late defensive touchdown, they'd be getting as much field time as me (none). The Bills have been on the wrong end of so many plays in the playoffs over the years and they will not let their foot off the gas after their scare against Miami. Cincinnati was a playoff darling last season, but the pass protection continues to be a problem. The pass protection has continued to be a huge worry and Burrow was sacked four times against the Ravens. Three OL players have injuries. On the season Burrow has been sacked right around 7% of his drop backs, which ranks bottom half in the league. On the ground, the Bengals have been relatively inconsistent. Last week, Joe Mixon led the Bengals in rushing with an embarrassing 39 yards on 11 carries. Joe Mixon is the primary ball carrier and he is averaging 3.9 yards per tote and has just four carries of 20 yards or more this season which could never set up the pass. On the defensive end of the football Buffalo is holding opponents to 18.3 points per game which is 3rd in the league. On the season Buffalo ranks 2nd in the NFL in points per game with 28.8 points per contest. The Bills have moved the ball very efficiently as they average 6.1 yards per play which is also second in the league. The ground game has been hard to stop for opposition this season and the Bills have shown the ability to break off big runs. On the season the Bills are rushing for 137.6 yards per game. Singletary has been the primary ball carrier and he is averaging 4.6 yards per carry and has five carries of 20 yards or more. Allen has also shown off his athleticism on the ground as he has eight carries of 20 yards or more and seven touchdowns on the ground. Orchard Park will be a rocking place with the Bills faithful helping will this team to victory. Take the home favorite here who's playing with something to prove.

NFL NFC DIVISIONAL
GAME OF THE Y-E-A-R

WAYNE has this rated a MAXX BET Pinnacle Game of the Year. BET this early and often. We’re on a 11-2-1 (85%) MAXX BET Pinnacle WINNING STREAK. There are few better games this week or ever!!

Sunday 6:30 pm est

Pinnacle—-Dallas

The Cowboys finally seemed destined to break through and looked good enough on Monday to do so. The unfortunate thing is they are now up against a juggernaut of a Niners team that has been dominant on both sides of the ball. San Francisco has tons of weapons and Kyle Shanahan knows how to use them. However, he’s up against former co- Falcons team defensive coach Dan Quinn who knows Coach Shanahan inside and out. Last week the Cowboys did well to get after one of postseason’s greatest competitors, taking the hostile crowd of it early and coasting much of the way as Tampa Bay could not get away from the Cowboys defense. The Dallas offense rolled as well, putting up 425 total yards and five touchdowns. Dak Prescott picked the best time to have his best game of the season, torching the Buccaneers for 305 yards on 25-of-33 passing with a season high four touchdowns and no interceptions. Tight end Dalton Schultz was his top target and he responded by catching seven of the eight passes thrown his way for a season high 95 yards and two touchdowns. Schultz had two other games this season with seven catches, his high. As for the 49ers, Brock Purdy is the new flavor of the month in the NFL. There’s no bigger stage than playing the Cowboys in a divisional game in front of a home crowd. It might be too big for him. The Dallas defense will definitely bring it to him. As for Cowboys scoring, take away the last game of the regular season where they Cowboys scored just six points and over their last six games, they’ve averaged 35.5 points per game. Look for the Dallas defense and the swirling winds to make life miserable for Brock Purdy as Big D gets the Big W.

 

[Over Under]

Ferringo 7* Cowboys/Niners OVER 46

 

[Over Under]

HITMAN | NFL Sides - Sunday, Jan 22 2023 3:00PM
315 CIN +6.0 (-110)Circa Sports vs 316 BUF double-dime bet

 

[Over Under]

HITMAN | NFL Prop - Sunday, Jan 22 2023 6:30PM
Deebo O

(-120)DraftKings 317 DAL vs 318 SFX single-dime bet

Analysis:
Deebo Samuel (SF) O15.5 rush yds -120


Widely available, good to 16.5. Not as much room on this one as the opener at 13.5 has gotten beat up a bit, but still some value.

 

[Over Under]

HITMAN | NFL Prop - Sunday, Jan 22 2023 6:30PM
Dak O

(-120)DraftKings 317 DAL vs 318 SFX single-dime bet

Analysis:
Dak Prescott (DAL) O14.5 rush yds -120

DK and MGM best in mark we but, 15.5 is acceptable.

 

[Over Under]

HITMAN | NFL Prop - Sunday, Jan 22 2023 6:30PM
Mitchell U

(-115)DraftKings 317 DAL vs 318 SFX single-dime bet

Analysis:
?
Elijah Mitchell (SF) U37.5 rush/rec yds -115


DK, MGM, 365, Caesars 35.5 is acceptable.

U29.5 rush yds is widely available at more shops such as FD/prop builder and is a fine alternate

 

[Over Under]

Scott Van Pelt- 96-66-5 record

bills- 5.5
cowboys +4

 

[Over Under]

Teddy Covers

Bills -5

E% Big Ticket: Take Buffalo (#316)
Even after losing ATS to the Ravens last week, Cincinnati has an enormous betting bandwagon, a true ‘public’ team here in the postseason. It’s easy to understand why – the Bengals have been a pointspread machine; the single best ATS squad in the NFL since the middle of last season. Cinci and their backers are riding a 20-4-1 ATS Run in their last 25 games; the type of extended pointspread run that generates ample public support moving forward.

But Cincinnati has a significant problem for this ballgame. First and foremost, the Bengals have suffered through a bevy of injuries on the offensive line. This team played with the same five starting linemen for an extended stretch this season; 15 straight games. Then tackle La’el Collins went on IR after Week 16. Alex Capps hurt his ankle in Week 17 and aggravated it last week. Tackle Jonah Williams dislocated his kneecap against Baltimore last week. A line featuring backups Jackson Carman (only four regular season snaps this year), Max Scharping and Hakeem Adeniji is a MAJOR drop-off from where they’ve been.

Remember, Joe Burrow took 13 sacks in the first two weeks of the season as Cinci started 0-2 SU/ATS, before the OL started to gell. In Cinci’s final 14 regular season games, Burrow took more than three sacks only once, a blowout loss at Cleveland on Halloween Night. Last week, against Baltimore, Burrow was under pressure throughout behind that shattered offensive line – no downfield passing whatsoever (his longest completion went for 19 yards). Buffalo is every bit as stout on the defensive line, if not more so. It’s not like Cinci has a solid running game – if Burrow doesn’t have time to throw, this offense doesn’t work. I don’t expect Burrow to have much time to throw in this matchup.

The Bills just ‘survived and advanced’ in a game where they didn’t play well on either side of the football; a natural instance for a team that has been through an emotional roller coaster down the stretch of the regular season. I have no hesitation backing a ‘A’ level team following a shoddy showing – they’re better than what we just saw. Every sharp dollar bet early in the week on this game has come for the home favorite -- for good reason! Big Ticket: Take the Bills.

Line Parameter: 5% at -5.5 or lower, 4% at -6.5 or lower, 3% if this line goes all the way up to -7


D% Take Dallas (#317)

When Dak Prescott got hurt in Week 1, a 19-3 loss to Tampa Bay, a major sportsbook decided to pay out Cowboys Under bettors in the season wins marketplace. That ended up being a poor decision. Dallas didn’t fall apart when Prescott got hurt. In fact, they went 4-1 SU/ATS with Cooper Rush behind center, including wins and covers against a pair of winners on Wild Card weekend, the Giants and Bengals.

Why didn’t Dallas fall apart early? Three reasons. First and foremost, this is a Top quartile defense – just like San Fran – allowing only 5.1 yards per play for the season. Dan Quinn has worked magic here, just like he did when he turned the Seahawks defense into a Super Bowl caliber unit when he worded under Pete Carroll. Note the Cowboys ability to create turnovers in bunches, week after week. Second, their offensive line has been blowing open holes for the running backs; creating a balanced attack. That’s key against the 49ers – you’re not going to beat San Francisco without the ability to run AND throw effectively.

Third and perhaps most importantly, this Dallas team has character. They’re not soft; they’ve responded well to adversity all season, and they’re hungry for postseason success after more than two decades of failures. Mike McCarthy has pushed all the right buttons here, and this team is ‘live’ to make a DEEP postseason run.

San Francisco has been feeding on the weak. Based on my power rating numbers for every team they faced on the week that they faced them, Dallas this week is going to be the toughest foe they’ve faced since losing at home to Kansas City by three touchdowns back in October. This is a step up in defensive class for rookie third string QB Brock Purdy, who has played extremely well, but will be hard pressed to lead his team to victory by margin on Sunday. Too many points – live dog here! Take the Cowboys

Line Parameter: 4% at +3.5 or higher, 3% at +3 or lower