Sharp Bettors Pound Super Bowl 59 Props 🏈

[Wagerallsports]

Sharp bettors pound Super Bowl 59 props at Westgate SuperBook​

LV REVIEW JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTION

A Las Vegas tradition unlike any other: the Super Bowl prop menu unveiling at the Westgate SuperBook.

The ever-popular Super Bowl prop bets for the NFL title game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles had already been on the board for a few days at other sportsbooks around the country.

But the Westgate’s annual posting of its massive menu of props Thursday night is still a treasured date on the sports betting calendar for professional sports bettors.

“The Super Bowl is Christmas for sports bettors, and this is like a little Christmas Eve celebration with some old friends. It’s a lot of fun,” said pro handicapper Teddy Sevransky, aka Teddy Covers (@teddy_covers). “The markets have changed dramatically over the years. Now it’s an established market that the Westgate is putting numbers into, where they used to be the market leaders.

“Nonetheless, they still have the most respected numbers out there, and everyone — wiseguys, linemakers, whoever — wants to see the numbers the Westgate is posting.”

Hundreds of props lit up on the giant screen at the Westgate at 7 p.m. sharp, and a steady line of about 15 sharp bettors then took turns firing two wagers apiece of up to $2,000 each before going to the back of the line to do it again. This continued for more than an hour, and there were still a few wiseguys placing wagers 90 minutes after the props were posted.

After the sharps pounded the props in person Thursday night, the SuperBook will open betting on its mobile app Friday morning.

“It’s how we’ve always done it,” Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray said. “These guys will help us sharpen the numbers a little bit for not that much money before we raise the limits (Friday) and open the floodgates, so to speak.”

The Westgate posted its biggest prop menu ever, and Murray estimates the prop action will account for more than 60 percent of the total betting handle, or amount wagered, on Super Bowl 59.

“It seems to grow every year,” Murray said.

Caesars Sportsbook also posted its largest prop menu ever Thursday afternoon, with thousands of ways to wager on the Feb. 9 game at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

“Currently, the most popular prop wager is ‘Will there be overtime?’” Caesars vice president of trading Craig Mucklow said of the prop that pays 10-1. “This prop was exceptionally profitable for customers last year when the game went into overtime.”

Mucklow said the most money wagered on a prop so far is on the Eagles to go over 42½ total team defensive tackles (-200), while the Chiefs to go over 42½ tackles (-180) isn’t far behind.

“This is surprising as usually when the props are opened it’s an avalanche of under money and short-priced favorites,” Mucklow said.

Murray said that sharp bettors generally bet “no” and “under” on props, while the betting public bets “yes” and “over.”

Pro bettor Bill Krackomberger (@BillKrackman) said he used to bet 90 percent unders on props but now bets 70 percent unders.

“I have evolved a little bit,” he said while waiting in line to fire two more max bets. “My way of betting is not a fun way. It’s a very boring way. I’m rooting for no scoring.”

Betting against Barkley

Krackomberger made his first max bet on Eagles running back Saquon Barkley’s longest rush to be under 25½ yards (-110).

“I wanted to bet $10,000,” he said. “It’s real simple. I’m going to go against the public. Usually, I wait for unders Sunday the day of the game. But this number shocked me. I’ll go against everybody. I thought it was going to be more like 18½, 19½, 20½.

“I just think they’re going to focus more on Barkley and containing him. I just really like under on Barkley’s props. But I’m betting against a marquee player. It’s not fun.”

Mahomes on the run

Pro sports bettor Randy McKay (@RR39) bet on Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes to go over 28½ yards rushing (-110) and on Kansas City linebacker Nick Bolton to go over 7½ tackles (-120).

“I just feel like they used (Mahomes’) legs last week, and in the playoffs, they use his legs a lot more,” he said. “This could be another opportunity in a domed stadium on a fast track to use his legs.

“Bolton will get a lot of action in Philly’s rush attack. He’ll get a lot of tackles that way. In the last Super Bowl they played, he had nine total tackles.”

Sharp props

Murray said the book took several sharp bets on the following props: under 13½ players to have a pass reception; under 5½ Eagles to have a pass reception; Mahomes -½ passing touchdowns vs. Jalen Hurts; Eagles receiver Jahan Dotson over ½ catch; and both punters to have a touchback.

Mucklow said Caesars took respected bets on the opening kickoff to not be a touchback and on there to be a score in the last two minutes of the first half.

 

[BMR Genie]

"Betting against Barkley

Krackomberger made his first max bet on Eagles running back Saquon Barkley’s longest rush to be under 25½ yards (-110).

“I wanted to bet $10,000,” he said. “It’s real simple. I’m going to go against the public. Usually, I wait for unders Sunday the day of the game. But this number shocked me. I’ll go against everybody. I thought it was going to be more like 18½, 19½, 20½.

“I just think they’re going to focus more on Barkley and containing him. I just really like under on Barkley’s props. But I’m betting against a marquee player. It’s not fun.”

--> Both teams will be marking good players.

"Barkley earned $250,000 after the Eagles won the NFC Championship, and he will stand to make an additional $500,000 if the Eagles win the Super Bowl" ---> a great motivation waiting for him though, a great bday gift if they win.

 

[phillyflyers]

"Betting against Barkley

Krackomberger made his first max bet on Eagles running back Saquon Barkley’s longest rush to be under 25½ yards (-110).

“I wanted to bet $10,000,” he said. “It’s real simple. I’m going to go against the public. Usually, I wait for unders Sunday the day of the game. But this number shocked me. I’ll go against everybody. I thought it was going to be more like 18½, 19½, 20½.

“I just think they’re going to focus more on Barkley and containing him. I just really like under on Barkley’s props. But I’m betting against a marquee player. It’s not fun.”

--> Both teams will be marking good players.

"Barkley earned $250,000 after the Eagles won the NFC Championship, and he will stand to make an additional $500,000 if the Eagles win the Super Bowl" ---> a great motivation waiting for him though, a great bday gift if they win.

They tried to stop Barkley every game.

Nobody's done it yet.

What makes anyone think KC is going to do it?

 

[JDS]

They tried to stop Barkley every game.

Nobody's done it yet.

What makes anyone think KC is going to do it?

Mr. Krackomberger is gonna get buried on that one & I guess he’s taking the Chiefs. No need to buy his game day pick. He doesn’t show his record anywhere on his website I wonder why.

 

[BMR Genie]

They tried to stop Barkley every game.

Nobody's done it yet.

What makes anyone think KC is going to do it?

I am also rooting for Barkley.

 

[jjgold]

I never bet props even Super Bowl. I might have two total bets my entire career.

 

[fishhead]

I will send one to RELOAD for the LOBBY next week.

 

[Wagerallsports]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1885423165175631947

 

[fishhead]

WHAT A SWEAT

 

[KingKolzig]

Dotson o.5 rec is -138
Bolton o7.5 tackles is -160

Prop Landers

 

[jjgold]

only props I will bet are Kolzers

 

[phillyflyers]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1885423165175631947

51k to win 1k.

What a great man.

 

[BigJay]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1885423165175631947

I thought this was a prop not to have an octopus thrown on the field, like they are sometimes in hockey

 

[Wagerallsports]

All aboard Barkley bandwagon: Books brace for prop bets on Eagles RB​

LV REVIEW JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTION

Super Bowl 59 between the Eagles and Chiefs will be only the eighth Super Bowl rematch in NFL history after Kansas City rallied for a 38-35 win over Philadelphia in Super Bowl 57.

Several stars from that game will be back on Super Bowl Sunday, most notably quarterback Patrick Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce of the Chiefs and quarterback Jalen Hurts of the Eagles.

But Philadelphia star running back Saquon Barkley, who was still a member of the lowly New York Giants in 2023, will make his Super Bowl debut after a sensational first season with the Eagles in which he rushed for 2,005 yards.

Bookmakers are bracing for an avalanche of bets and money on Barkley after he exploded for 323 yards rushing and five touchdowns, including scoring runs of 60 and 78 yards, his last two times out in playoff wins over the Commanders and Rams.

“He’ll be the most popular prop player,” Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray said. “He’ll probably outpace Travis Kelce by a pretty big distance is my guess.

“Those guys are such big names. They’re clearly going to be the public darling on the two respective teams. If either one of those guys has a huge game, we’re definitely going to get hit on props.”

TD history

Barkley’s over-under rushing yards prop at the Westgate is 116½ yards, a figure he has surpassed in his past five games, including playoffs, and 10 of his past 14. He is +270 to have 150 rushing yards or more, a mark he has reached in three of his past five games.

He’s a -210 favorite to score a touchdown, which he has done in his past two games and and in 10 of 19 games this season. Barkley is +290 to score two TDs or more — which he had done seven times this season — and 12-1 to score three TDs or more. He had a season-high three TDs in the Eagles’ 55-23 win over Washington in the NFC title game.

“We’re not going to do well if Barkley scores three touchdowns in the game,” Murray said. “All that stuff is going to get hit by the public. They’re all going to be expecting a huge game from Barkley based on what he did in the regular season and based on what he did in the NFC championship game.”

Barkley is the +450 favorite to score the first touchdown of the Super Bowl after scoring the first TD of the NFC title game on a 60-yard sprint on his first carry.

He’s the +275 second choice to win the Super Bowl MVP award at the Westgate, where he’s the runaway ticket and money leader. At BetMGM, Barkley is the Super Bowl MVP money leader and second in tickets behind Hurts (+375).

“He had an MVP-caliber season. The return of the running back,” MGM Resorts director of trading Lamarr Mitchell said. “I think everyone’s going to be drawn to his player props.”

The Eagles scored three rushing touchdowns in Super Bowl 57, all by Hurts, who also rushed for three TDs against the Commanders in the NFC championship game.

“It’s an interesting dynamic. Most of Barkley’s rushing touchdowns come from beyond the 5-yard line,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “Will he get the touches inside the 5 is the real key, I think. Or is it the ‘tush push’ with Hurts more than anything else?”

Sharps against Barkley

Barkley’s prop for his longest rush is 23½ yards at the Westgate after it opened at 25½. He eclipsed 23½ in his past two games, six of his past 10 and 10 of 19. But the Westgate took several sharp bets on the under Thursday night when it posted the prop.

“That’s kind of funny when you consider the guy ripped a 60-yard touchdown on the first play of the game last week,” Murray said. “But sharp bettors are thinking, and I agree with them, that Philadelphia is going to play a much better defensive team next week. Washington has a pretty lousy defense, and Kansas City has one of the best defenses in the league.

“I’m not really surprised. A 26-yard run is a pretty long run. It’s not common to rip a 26-yard run against a top defensive team.”

 

[jjgold]

KC brutal defense

 

[fishhead]

BARKLEY and DeJEAN birthdays Sunday.

 

[fishhead]

BARKLEY and DeJEAN birthdays Sunday.

CAT CLARK # retired today, Iowa upsets #4 USC

 

[Wagerallsports]

I always take 5-6 long shots to win MVP

You never know

Was a hair away from hitting Harrison Butker +35000 last year

He was 4-4 on fgs with that 57 yarder and if he would have kicked a 5th in OT instead of KC getting in the end one there’s your MVP

 

[Wagerallsports]

Super Bowl MVP betting: Could running backs make a comeback?
​

A running back hasn’t been named Super Bowl MVP since 1998.

But bettors are banking on Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley to be the first running back to win the award since Terrell Davis did so for Denver in its 31-24 victory over Green Bay in Super Bowl 32.

Barkley is the MVP ticket leader at the Westgate SuperBook and MVP money leader at BetMGM leading into Super Bowl 59, which takes place Feb. 9 in New Orleans.

Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the +120 favorite at the SuperBook to garner Super Bowl MVP honors for the third straight year. Barkley is the +275 second choice and Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is the +325 third pick.

“It would take a ton for one of these three not to win MVP,” SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said.

This year marks the first time since Nevada sportsbooks started taking wagers on Super Bowl MVP in 2016 that the top two favorites are not both quarterbacks.

“That’s highly unusual. Normally, you just default on the two quarterbacks,” Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray said. “The Eagles don’t ask a ton of Hurts in terms of throwing the football. Even though they do have good receivers, they tend to rely more on their offensive line and their ground game, so it makes sense.

“I expect Barkley to be, for sure, the guy that gets the most MVP tickets.”

Quarterbacks have earned MVP honors in 33 of 58 Super Bowls. Defensive players have won the award in nine Super Bowls, while eight wide receivers and seven running backs have been named MVP.

Return specialist Desmond Howard won the award in the Packers’ 35-21 win over the Patriots in Super Bowl 31.

“I don’t see another scenario with the Chiefs with someone winning MVP outside of Mahomes,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “Unless the score ends 9-6 with three Harrison Butker field goals, which is highly unlikely.”

The latter scenario would deal a major blow to sportsbooks, which would suffer significant losses if Butker became the first kicker named Super Bowl MVP. Butker, a 200-1 long shot, is the early MVP money leader at the Westgate and the second-largest liability at Caesars for that market.

“People never stop with these kickers,” Salmons said. “At 200-1, they can’t get enough.”

Hurts almost certainly would have been named MVP of Super Bowl 57 had the Eagles defeated the Chiefs. He threw for 304 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 70 yards and three touchdowns in Philadelphia’s 38-35 loss.

“In the Eagles’ case, it’s really a two-man race if Hurts duplicates what he did the last time these two teams met in the Super Bowl,” Esposito said. “Or it could be Barkley if he does have multiple touchdowns that are long runs, or if he has 170 yards rushing in a closer, lower-scoring game.

“You would have to give Barkley a lot of consideration with how hot he’s been so far in the postseason.”

Major wagers

A tight end has never been named Super Bowl MVP. But that hasn’t stopped bettors from backing Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce, who is third in tickets at the Westgate. A BetMGM bettor wagered $25,000 to win $375,000 on Kelce to win MVP at 15-1.

A Caesars bettor wagered $20,000 to win $22,000 on Mahomes (+110) to win again.

“Once the public really starts betting on the MVP, they’re going to start looking down the board and they’re going to take longer shots,” Murray said. “My guess is we’ll probably end up doing very well in that pool if Mahomes does win the MVP.

“The public doesn’t want to bet him at +120. They’re going to bet someone like (Eagles defensive tackle) Jalen Carter or (Chiefs defensive tackle) Chris Jones or (Kansas City wide receiver) Xavier Worthy. Players with longer odds that they’ve heard of.”

Worthy is 30-1 to win MVP, while Carter and Jones are each 80-1.

Caesars took a $275 bet to win $110,000 on Philadelphia safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson to win MVP at 400-1. He is the largest liability in the market for Caesars, which also took a $250 wager to win $125,000 on Eagles cornerback Darius Slay at 500-1.

 

[fishhead]

Will send RELOAD prop play today for THE LOBBY Wednesday