Wagerallsports
- Joined
- Mar 6, 2018
- Messages
- 52,827
Sharp bettors cause line move in Raiders-Chargers season opener
LV REVIEW JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTIONSharp bettors are backing the Raiders over the Chargers in Sunday’s season opener at SoFi Stadium.
Los Angeles opened as a 3½-point favorite in May, five months after the Raiders humiliated the Chargers while setting a franchise record for points in a 63-21 rout at Allegiant Stadium.
The number dipped to 3 when Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert missed the preseason with a foot injury, then shot up as high as 4½ at the SuperBook when Herbert returned to practice.
“We moved it back to 3½, then someone sharp this week took +3½, so now we’re at 3 (-108),” SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons said. “A lot of people are down on the Chargers this year. I know they have (coach Jim) Harbaugh, but there’s a lot of turnover there. I’m guessing their thinking is it just may take him time to get this thing rolling.
“It’s a lot to ask an NFL team to win by more than three, especially a team that’s not all that great.”
The consensus total is 40½, with Circa Sports at 40 in this matchup of two of the NFL’s top under teams last season. The Chargers went 12-5 to the under and the Raiders 11-6.
“You look at the skill position players the Raiders have in Davante Adams and the two tight ends in Michael Mayer and Brock Bowers. The real question for the Raiders is how well will Gardner Minshew play as starting quarterback,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “I look at the Chargers as the great unknown. I know that Jim Harbaugh’s had success in the NFL, but there’s no Keenan Allen, there’s no Mike Williams and there’s no Austin Ekeler.
“Harbaugh loves to build his teams from the trenches out, and he did that by drafting (tackle) Joe Alt. I think you’re going to see a much different Chargers team that establishes the run and is way more physical.”
On Friday, 56 percent of the tickets against the spread at Station Sports were on the Chargers, 57 percent of bets on the money line were on the Raiders (+145) and 69 percent of wagers on the total were on the over.
Back-to-back Westgate SuperContest winner Steve Fezzik bet on the Raiders +4, in part because of what he said was irrational exuberance on the Chargers -3.
“A respected influencer gave out the Chargers, and unsophisticated subscribers over bet them,” said Fezzik (@FezzikSports). “Eighty percent of the crowd will be Raiders fans. Chargers only have the edge of coaching and at quarterback, but their quarterback has been banged up, so little practice with the new skill position players.
“We love division (underdogs) in Week 1. That’s been very profitable. Only concern is Raiders put a 60 burger on these guys, so it’s a huge revenge game, but everyone is sky high Week 1 in the NFL.”
SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay, who hit 70.2 percent of his picks in the Review-Journal NFL Challenge last season, said the Raiders +3 are his best bet this week.
The Raiders went 8-9 last season, but were one of the NFL’s best teams against the spread, going 10-6-1. They finished strong under then-interim coach Antonio Pierce, winning five of their final nine games while going 7-1-1 ATS.
