Setting goals with gambling - what are you hoping to accomplish FB season?

[djefferis]

Anyone else set goals for their gambling ?

I don’t generally gamble for profit - meaning I don’t count on the winnings for anything other than buying things that I want. Your a dope in general if your count on gambling to pay bills/rent/ect - it’s called GAMBLING for a reason and never a sure thing - no matter how great your track record. There’s a reason squares keep playing - they have to win sometime to keep them engaged.

With FB - likely start off slow - a lot of fresh funds flooding the market and can be tough to get a good feel for things. We know the “obvious” will happen - big faves and square plays SHOULD lose more than they win - historically probably around mid 50% rate. Of course nothing is a guarantee. Similarly NFL feels like squares have a slight advantage first few weeks and then books mop up cash around week 3-4 with over confident bettors taking 2 or 3-0 teams over winless squads.

As my goals - probably start small - win enough for a nice bottle of booze and a box of cigars to start would be nice. That is easier as more bonus opportunity plays and less need for pure handicapping skill. Stick half winnings back in the bankroll and cash out half.

Longer term - IDK this season. Last year paid for a guitar I can’t play for shit - this year probably another closet space taker upper. A 30-30 likely - maybe a 1911 and a .22 to get back into practice with. Buddy offered to take me deer hunting once I’m out of here - have not been in 30+ years. Thinking of going - just to get out and experience it. Generally fishing more my speed in the past - much more acceptable to sit around and get drunk while participating in that “sport”.

Will also be continuing my trend of donating a set percentage of wins to local animal shelters - either sponsoring adoption fees or just sending Amazon packages of supplies, food, treats and toys. It’s a personal choice to be charitable with winnings - but I do believe in such a thing as gambling karma.

Finally - if I make it “big” this season - do a nice little donation to the giving tree at work again. Generally start to wind things down around week 14-15 of the NFL and that lines up with just before Christmas. Can’t say that I never had to go a Christmas without presents as a kid - but can’t say the same for some of my friends or even family members years before me. You see shit like that - you recognize how much even a small donation makes to someone who was expecting nothing.

 

[Archie]

have fun

 

[djefferis]

have fun

That’s a given - if you’re not you probably should be playing the stock market instead of gambling.

More socially acceptable, better “game time” hours and availability and the vig is reduced. Plus less chance of someone running off with your winnings (not that it can’t happen - just lessened chance).

 

[flyingillini]

Anyone else set goals for their gambling ?

I don’t generally gamble for profit - meaning I don’t count on the winnings for anything other than buying things that I want. Your a dope in general if your count on gambling to pay bills/rent/ect - it’s called GAMBLING for a reason and never a sure thing - no matter how great your track record. There’s a reason squares keep playing - they have to win sometime to keep them engaged.

With FB - likely start off slow - a lot of fresh funds flooding the market and can be tough to get a good feel for things. We know the “obvious” will happen - big faves and square plays SHOULD lose more than they win - historically probably around mid 50% rate. Of course nothing is a guarantee. Similarly NFL feels like squares have a slight advantage first few weeks and then books mop up cash around week 3-4 with over confident bettors taking 2 or 3-0 teams over winless squads.

As my goals - probably start small - win enough for a nice bottle of booze and a box of cigars to start would be nice. That is easier as more bonus opportunity plays and less need for pure handicapping skill. Stick half winnings back in the bankroll and cash out half.

Longer term - IDK this season. Last year paid for a guitar I can’t play for shit - this year probably another closet space taker upper. A 30-30 likely - maybe a 1911 and a .22 to get back into practice with. Buddy offered to take me deer hunting once I’m out of here - have not been in 30+ years. Thinking of going - just to get out and experience it. Generally fishing more my speed in the past - much more acceptable to sit around and get drunk while participating in that “sport”.

Will also be continuing my trend of donating a set percentage of wins to local animal shelters - either sponsoring adoption fees or just sending Amazon packages of supplies, food, treats and toys. It’s a personal choice to be charitable with winnings - but I do believe in such a thing as gambling karma.

Finally - if I make it “big” this season - do a nice little donation to the giving tree at work again. Generally start to wind things down around week 14-15 of the NFL and that lines up with just before Christmas. Can’t say that I never had to go a Christmas without presents as a kid - but can’t say the same for some of my friends or even family members years before me. You see shit like that - you recognize how much even a small donation makes to someone who was expecting nothing.

Once again, an amazing post!

 

[Tanko]

Great post @djefferis .
The bar for me is low.

I just want to make withdrawals throughout the season instead of deposits. If I can be +money while experiencing the fun of gambling for 4-5 months, I'm good.

Hope you're not too bored in the hospital. Don't get hooked on any soap operas (do they still exist?).

 

[jjgold]

Break even is winning
Why??

You beat 95% of gamblers

 

[djefferis]

Nah - the old black lady in the room 3 doors down is better than any soap opera though.

Ca here her clearly over my TV and have heard the life story 3 times over and they just brought her in a 9a !

The “joys” of an inner city hospital on the weekend - I know I’m going to get to listen to this all weekend because she ain’t going nowhere before Monday.

Asked the wife to bring me my noise canceling headphones in. At least she’s loud now - so hopefully will STFU at night so I can sleep some - unlike my roommate when I got here - started at 9pm and didn’t shut up all night - call button every 15 minutes - got undressed at least twice and had a bed alarm going off constantly because he wouldn’t just lay down. Fortunately - had a great nurse and moment a private room opened she discreetly had me moved there.

Right attitude to have - it should be FUN - but you’re not playing to LOSE either. It might happen occasionally - but if your consistently losing and your not having fun - find a hobby that you enjoy more and spend the same amount. In general winning is what makes it fun.

For example - I love going to horse racing - but overall suck at handicapping them. Too tempting to lay the chalk at the sport. My solution - pick and focus on the promo races - things like get your money back for 2/3rd or $20 for a $50 wager regardless of outcome. There’s generally 3-5 races a week like this, it’s usually big ones and with multiple apps/accounts under family member names - you can squeeze a small profit more easily than being a serous capper.

 

[jjgold]

Horse racing I make about 12 bets a week although every single one of them is money back if the horse comes in second or third $10 max wagers it’s basically a break even strategy or even a profit

 

[djefferis]

Horse racing I make about 12 bets a week although every single one of them is money back if the horse comes in second or third $10 max wagers it’s basically a break even strategy or even a profit

Im telling you - not a stupid strategy - especially when you can get 5x-8x the action down (or more if multiple apps feature same races). Yea - $10 ain’t shit - especially when you’re normally betting faves. But do it for $50 and it’s a worthwhile for a low level player like myself.

Smarter yet - take 1 long shot and make 4 $10 wins on the fave and play a 12-1 shot or longer. Sometimes you get lucky - so long as fave hits the board. Worst case fave wins and the long shot fails to hit - so your even money cashing 4 $16 tickets and losing $10.

 

[JDS]

@djefferis you probably think I’m a fucking idiot privately, but I’m trying to do this for a living. I finally have the bankroll to do that and I’m self-made betting these markets. The money didn’t come from somewhere else that I’m risking.

 

[djefferis]

@djefferis you probably think I’m a fucking idiot privately, but I’m trying to do this for a living. I finally have the bankroll to do that and I’m self-made betting these markets. The money didn’t come from somewhere else that I’m risking.

Absolutely not - fact is you have the skill/discipline and risk tolerance to do this on a level many do not.

If someone told me they think there pretty good gambling and were going to borrow 100k from family and start betting that’s one thing - but having demonstrated you understand exactly what you are doing - that’s a different story entirely. Fact is you can actually do what 95% of gamblers cannot - consistently win and manage a large bankroll.

Most are overall losers long term - a smaller (but significant) percentage can win - but don’t have the ability to manage their bankroll to withstand a losing streak or maintain a level of consistency to their wager amount. Then there’s that 5% who can win and maintain - of those 5% - probably 80% lack the bankroll or the balls to risk big money believing in themselves. Being in that elite group who knows what they are doing and aren’t afraid of taking the risk is a credit to your ability.

 

[JDS]

Absolutely not - fact is you have the skill/discipline and risk tolerance to do this on a level many do not.

If someone told me they think there pretty good gambling and were going to borrow 100k from family and start betting that’s one thing - but having demonstrated you understand exactly what you are doing - that’s a different story entirely. Fact is you can actually do what 95% of gamblers cannot - consistently win and manage a large bankroll.

Most are overall losers long term - a smaller (but significant) percentage can win - but don’t have the ability to manage their bankroll to withstand a losing streak or maintain a level of consistency to their wager amount. Then there’s that 5% who can win and maintain - of those 5% - probably 80% lack the bankroll or the balls to risk big money believing in themselves. Being in that elite group who knows what they are doing and aren’t afraid of taking the risk is a credit to your ability.

Bankroll management is still something that I am perfecting. Trust me, I’ve made some mistakes even this year and I should have more money than I have, but things have worked out for me overall. The good thing is I’m aware of my mistakes and I will try not to repeat them.

 

[djefferis]

Learning from mistakes is what separates a pro from a loser.

Some mistakes are expensive - but repeating them just multiples the cost. The fact is you can afford mistakes - but they catch up with you quickly so learning/adapting is key.

We have plenty of people who never learn - and don’t want to.

 

[phillyflyers]

To fukkin win.