Justin Perri
CHI. CUBS @ COLORADO | 08/04 | 8:40 PM EDT
COLORADO -153
ANALYSIS: The Rockies still have a name brand discount, clearly, as I think casual bettors are very hesitant to take a team that gets joked about when on the road. They're no joke at home though, and the Cubs are a white-flag team that clearly can be faded in most situations going forward. The Rox have a 77 percent win rate when favored over 22 games this season, plus they are 34-20 at home. The juice is worth it here. Jon Gray is the Wizard of Coors. Colorado to win.
SEATTLE @ TAMPA BAY | 08/04 | 1:10 PM EDT
UNDER 8
ANALYSIS: I like taking an Under on day games because it is certainly harder on the hitters to play a second game within 24 hours than it is for pitchers to lose six hours of rest on a five-day rotation. The Rays' Josh Fleming carries a 5.07 ERA and 1.37 WHIP at night and a 2.76 ERA and 0.92 WHIP during the day. The Mariners' Logan Gilbert is more drastic: 6.53 ERA and 1.39 WHIP at night and a stellar 1.69 ERA and 0.78 WHIP during the day. With the Rays' top tier bullpen and documented struggles against the Mariners this season, I will be taking this Under before it potentially gets to 7.5.
MINNESOTA @ CINCINNATI | 08/04 | 12:35 PM EDT
CINCINNATI -1.5
ANALYSIS: Luis Castillo has only allowed three home runs at Great American Ball Park this season. This is nothing short of impressive given how great of a hitter's park it is. Castillo has allowed 15 earned runs in his last 69.1 innings of work spanning the last two months. Over that span, he has never allowed more than four runs and has pitched 6-plus innings in nine of 11 starts. The Twins are starting Charlie Barnes, who will be making his second Major League appearance. He had an ERA around 4.50 in the minors over the last few years. Against a surging Reds lineup, he could easily have a rough outing Wednesday. Take the Reds -1.5, -120.
ATLANTA @ ST. LOUIS | 08/04 | 8:15 PM EDT
OVER 9
ANALYSIS: J.A. Happ makes his debut for the Cardinals, and I am shocked to be able to get a push condition at 9 with this one. Happ allowed 9 runs on his own the last time he started, has allowed 70 runs in his last 70.2 innings and had a 1.94 WHIP in July. I am unsure why the Cardinals traded for him, but I don't think they know what they're doing -- as evidenced by also adding Jon Lester. That the Braves are trotting out Drew Smyly should also help, as he usually allows 2-3 runs and can struggle after the third inning of work. If the Cardinals have any chance to win, they're going to need to score plenty. Average air density and a light wind blowing in shouldn't hurt us enough to stop this play.
