Justin Perri
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA | 07/28 | 1:10 PM EDT
OVER 10.5
ANALYSIS: This is the best hitting environment of the day by far. If you watch the Early Edge you know that Mike McClure is also backing this play. I have been picking on Twins starter J.A. Happ all season, and I don't necessarily see the Tigers' Wily Peralta as all that much better. When Peralta faced the Twins on July 11, the game finished with 21 runs. The moment a result like that has a non-negligible value in the distributions, it becomes almost a must-play for how my betting systems work. Go Over.
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO | 07/28 | 4:10 PM EDT
OVER 8
ANALYSIS: This line has strangely fallen from this morning, and I do not agree with it so let's grab it at eight to snag a nice push condition. Blake Snell has been pretty terrible in day games (7.40 ERA) compared to when he gets to pitch at night (3.86). On top of that, the Padres' shiny new batting order with Adam Frazier looks to be formidable even for a pitcher like Sean Manaea. Factor in the below average Air Density Index in San Diego, and I think we should have a good chance to see a high level of scoring. Eight runs should not be insurmountable.