BTC Sport
Italians Missing Firepower
Game: (224357) AC Milan at (224358) FC Porto
Date/Time: Oct 19 2021 3:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C units
Play: Total Under 2.5 (-115)
This is pretty close to a must-win spot for both teams, and I expect to see a tight and cagey affair. If both teams were at full strength, I would have very little hesitation backing AC Milan in this spot. But the Italians have a lot of injuries, and I'm not sure they have enough firepower to light up the scoreboard. Tiemoue Bakayoko, Olivier Giroud, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Rade Krunic, Davide Calabria and Daniel Maldini are all expected to be available after missing time in September due to injury. Brahim Díaz and Theo Hernández are out because of positive COVID-19 tests. Ante Rebic is expected to miss the match after suffering an ankle injury. As much as Milan wants to play an up-and-down free-flowing style, I don't think they have the depth for it and would be better suited to play a more defensive game.
People see the five-goal effort that Liverpool put up against Porto, but the Portuguese squad was missing its center-back pairing and starting goalkeeper for that match. We should see a much better defensive effort from them on Tuesday.
Dominant Dortmund
Game: (224341) Borussia Dortmund at (224342) Ajax
Date/Time: Oct 19 2021 3:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C units
Play: Borussia Dortmund +0.25 (-115)
Dortmund has won seven of their last eight matches, and I don't think there's much separating these two teams. The biggest x-factor here is the scheduling dynamic: Dortmund plays the second-worst team in the Bundesliga this upcoming weekend while Ajax plays league rival PSV. Ajax and PSV have finished No. 1 and No. 2 in the Dutch Eredivisie in five of the last seven years. Obviously Ajax isn't going to overlook a Champions League match, but that is a huge game on Sunday that will go a long way toward determining who wins the Dutch league this season. Dortmund doesn't have to worry about any kind of look-ahead.
At the time of posting, Dortmund +0.25 is available at
Pinnacle (-109); DraftKings (-110); and Barstool (-121). Half of our stake is on Dortmund +0.5 and the other half is on draw-no-bet. If Dortmund wins the match, we win our full stake. If the match ends in a draw, we win half our stake. The only way we lose our full stake is if Ajax wins the match. If you don't have the Asian handicap available, I would be okay with laying a little more juice to get Dortmund +0.5, which guarantees you a full stakes win if Dortmund wins or the game ends in a draw. I see that available around -140 at the time of posting.
Game: (224377) Juventus at (224378) Zenit Petersburg
Date/Time: Oct 20 2021 3:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D units
Play: Juventus -0.25 (-115)
UEFA maintains a power ratings system for its leagues based on how well teams do in competitions like the Champions League, Europa League, etc.. The Russian league is ranked ninth and is only decimal points better than the Scottish and Ukrainian leagues. That's not good. When Scotland, Austria and the Ukraine are playing comparable (or better) soccer, then you know the Russian league is officially struggling. Zenit has lost its last two matches within that poor Russian league that I just mentioned, and they've lost seven of their last nine Champions League matches. At the time of posting, Juventus -0.25 is available at
Pinnacle (-111); DraftKings (-110); and Barstool (-115). Half of our stake is on Juventua -0.5 and the other half is on draw-no-bet. If Juventus wins the match, we win our full stake. If the match ends in a draw, we lose half our stake. The only way we lose our full stake is if Zenit wins the match.