Justin Perri
N.Y. YANKEES @ BOSTON | 07/25 | 1:10 PM EDT
OVER 10.5
ANALYSIS: A third Over play as I try to avoid sides on Sundays when picking early, since rosters haven’t been finalized just yet. However, weather and pitchers usually give good-enough edges for totals. So I’ll take advantage of the 13-mph winds blowing out at Fenway Park. This should help boost run scoring 10-to-15 percent above the average. Boston LHP Martin Perez is also much worse at Fenway (5.80 ERA, 1.80 WHIP in 11 starts_ than he is on the road (2.47, 1.15 in eight). New York RHP Domingo German has not been able to pitch deep in recent outings, and nobody is going to complain about extra at-bats against the Yankees' bullpen. I’ll be expecting a high-scoring affair.
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA | 07/25 | 1:05 PM EDT
OVER 9.5
ANALYSIS: Going right back to this play after the Braves scored 15 on Saturday. I think the Phillies are more likely to return the favor against Atlanta RHP Touki Toussaint, who got extremely lucky in his first start of the year. Toussaint’s expected weighted On-Base Average on contact (xwOBAcon) was in the bottom four percent of pitchers for last season, and I think we see that version of him on the road. Phillies RHP Aaron Nola has struggled against the Braves this season, allowing nine runs and four homers over nine innings in his last two meetings with them. Throw in the exposure to these lackluster bullpens and I think we get to 10 runs.
WASHINGTON @ BALTIMORE | 07/25 | 1:05 PM EDT
OVER 10
ANALYSIS: There are a few factors pushing me toward the Over. I'm happy to fade Baltimore LHP John Means in his second start back from the IL. He struggled against the Rays last time out, allowing five runs in five innings while recording only two strikeouts. I also don't have much faith in Washington RHP Paulo Espino, who has an 89-mph fastball and bottom-tier strikeout numbers, as well as a high expected slugging percentage of .453. We also have weather that supports a good hitting environment and an umpire that is 12-7 on the Over this season. A tight strike zone could help us get a few crucial walks and the winds blowing out should help bring them home. Grab the Over.
