Adam Trigger
Game: (405) Cincinnati Bengals at (406) Washington Football Team
Date/Time: Aug 20 2021 8:00 PM EDT
Play Rating: E%
Play: Washington Football Team -4.5 (-110)
Washington (8PM ET NFL Network) – The Broncos jumped ahead and never looked back as they hammered the Vikings 33-6 to give us a split on our Week 1 NFL Preseason plays. I expect to be more active in Week 2 and Week 3 now that I’ve gotten a chance to see each team play once and I’m going to lock in my first move of NFLX Week 2 and up this one to a 5% MAX BET when the Washington Football Team host the Cincinnati Bengals at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland.
Washington was the team I lost within my 1-1 split of NFLX Week 1 but a lot of that had to do with the Patriots second unit being way better than I expected and, even with everything that transpired, Washington was a dropped 2 point conversion away from having a great chance to get out with a tie (push) in that game. The Bengals 2’s and 3’s aren’t close to as good as the Patriots and we are going to see starters play more here which gives a huge advantage to Washington. I also think Washington will benefit from the starters getting extended time as Washington led the Patriots at halftime and would have been up more had Dustin Hopkins been able to make a field goal. Cincinnati was impressive in their Week 1 win over the Bucs but it was their second unit that did the damage against a Bucs team that barely played their notable players and was clearly uninterested in that game. I think we are going to see Week 2 and 3 play out more like real games, in a real game Washington hammers this Bengals team and I think winning by five or more is likely for the Football Team here.
The most notable absentee for Cincinnati in Week 1 was quarterback Joe Burrow and I’ll be shocked if he steps on the field here. If Burrow does play it won’t be for more than a series so it’s going to be Brandon Allen and Kyle Shurmur against a Washington 1st and 2nd team defense that will be far tougher than facing the Bucs backups like they did last week. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the starting quarterback for Washington this season but he should play more than he did in Week 1 and behind him is a very capable backup in Taylor Heinicke that started the playoff game for Washington last season. Heinicke is my favorite type of quarterback to back in NFLX because he will be in against the Bengals reserves and he’s a scrappy playmaker that will get outside the pocket and make something out of nothing. Teams tend to run vanilla offense in the preseason so a quarterback that is a little creative and can make plays goes a long way. Behind Heinicke is Steven Montez who struggled in his first couple series against the Patriots but settled in and led a touchdown drive that, had the 2-point attempt not been dropped, would have tied the game. The Bengals reserve defense should be far easier for Montez to navigate and leading that touchdown drive should give Montez the confidence he lacked at the beginning of his shift in New England last week. Washington is the more complete team here, they have an advantage top to bottom at the quarterback position and I think the loss to the Patriots compels Washington to take this one more seriously which should be enough to have Washington see out this win.
I typically won't lay points in NFL preseason games but I’ve got Washington favored in the 6-7 point range so I’ll make an exception here. I’m sky high on Washington this season, I think Football Team is going to win the NFC East and take a step forward from last season where they backed into the playoffs by default. Washington has a Top 5 defense in the league and there’s depth which, of course, is integral to success in the preseason. Cincinnati is -360 to finish in last place in the AFC North and I’ve seen their season win total anywhere from 5.5 to 6.5 wins so even on the high end the Bengals are likely a bottom feeder again this season and worth opposing off of a fluke win now that they will have to deal with a far better first team for an extended period of time in this game.
Finally, Tampa Bay probably comes back and wins last week if Kyle Trask isn’t dreadful in the 4th quarter so I think that result has a lot more to do with how poorly the Bucs 2’s and 3’s played than it does Cincinnati actually being any good. Washington played fine but lost on the road to what looks to be a very deep Patriots team. This is a step down for Washington, it’s in D.C. and I think Football Team rolls by a lot more than the number.
Play on Washington -4.5 for 5% (or 5 units)
