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Bettor Days

Bettor Days

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Jun 12, 2021
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5,090
HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Oct 24 2021 1:00PM
453 CAR / 454 NYG UNDER 44.0 Circa Sports double-dime bet

Analysis: Another totals play where we will fade a team that has put in a "run the ball" mandate on their offense.


Carolina has failed to gain any yardage on 25.2% of their runs YTD, the highest rate in the NFL, yet HC Matt Rhule has come out saying his Panthers are "going to redefine who we are and we're going to run the football. Rhule also went into great length about protecting the football and that he wanted to see 30-33 rushes per game. For context, Tennessee ranks first in the NFL with 34 rushes per game.


The New York Giants injuries on offense continue to mount, with injuries to Kadarious Toney, Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, and Andrew Thomas all possibly out for this game. The Giants implied team total is 20.5, yet this is a Giants team that has scored over 20.5 points in the Jason Garrett era only 8 times in 22 games.
 

Bettor Days

Bettor Days

Joined
Jun 12, 2021
Messages
5,090
HITMAN | NFL Total - Monday, Oct 25 2021 8:15PM
473 NOS / 474 SEA UNDER 44.5 BetOnlinedouble-dime bet

Analysis:





The Saints last game against Washington has perhaps made the oddsmakers forget that this is a dead nuts under team. The Saints offense ranks last in the NFL in explosive plays (20+ yard gains). In their last 9 non Drew Brees starts over the last two seasons, just twice has a Saints game finished with 45 or more points. Surely this is a game where Sean Payton can instruct Jameis Winston to take care of the ball, as Seattle's offense is unlikely to threaten this Saints defense much.


Why is this Saints defense not going to be threatened? Well, it's because we can expect a run heavy attack from the Seahawks. HC Pete Carroll has said on the run game "That's how we've played when we're at our best for years. There's a lot of people who want to gripe and complain about running the football, but you saw, we scored 20 points in the 2nd half, and we did it by controlling the football game." The Saints are the leagues top ranked run defense in YPC allowed, and were 3rd last season.


With these two offenses being two dead nuts under teams that intent on hiding their quarterback, under we go, good down to 43.
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

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Mar 6, 2018
Messages
58,264
R & R TOTAL


Game: (455) Washington Football Team at (456) Green Bay Packers
Date/Time: Oct 24 2021 1:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D units
Play: Total Under 49.0 (-110)

TOP NFL Over-Under

NOTE: Try to get 49 or better. This play is good to 46.5
 
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