MNF Sharp Action
8:15 p.m. ET: New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks
These NFC non-division foes are trending in opposite directions. The Saints (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a bye having won two of their last three games, most recently beating Washington 33-22 and covering as 2.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Seahawks (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) have dropped two straight and just fell to the Steeelers 23-20, although Seattle covered as 5.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public is all over the Saints and happy to fade Geno Smith and the Russell Wilson-less Seahawks. This lopsided betting pushed New Orleans all the way up to -5.5 during the week. Then we saw a wave of buyback hit Seattle plus the points, dropping the line back down to 4.
Both teams match several profitable betting systems. Favorites off a bye, like the Saints, are roughly 58% ATS the last decade. Road favorites off a bye improve to 66% ATS. Meanwhile, Seattle has value as a contrarian inflated dog in a heavily bet game. Primetime dogs are 13-7 ATS (65%). Conference dogs are 43-30 ATS (59%). Conference dogs 7 or less are 34-20 ATS (63%).
We've also seen some under money hit the market, dropping the total from 44 to 41.5. When the total is a low 45 or less, the under is 19-11 (63%) this season. Weather could play a factor in this one. The forecast calls for low 50s with rain and 15 MPH winds. Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (55%). The Saints are 3-2 to the under this season. The Seahawks are 4-1-1 to the under.