Seeking hedging advice from you all

[stormtrooper8]

So I made a healthy wager on the Bengals to win the AFC North a couple weeks ago at +530


They got through, in my opinion, the hardest game in their schedule and are sitting at about even money now. Ravens are all the way down to -125ish

Baltimore's drastic price change (they were approaching -600 not long ago) makes me think Lamar is missing time. And even though the Ravens have the easier schedule, I just don't think they're very good tbh


So to me there are a few options:

1. Ride it out

2. Hedge it now at this price, though would need to debate the amount

3. Wait until the season finale and bet the Ravens moneyline, when the Bengals host the Ravens. That game could decide the division, and the Ravens almost certainly will be a decent underdog assuming Bengals stay relatively healthy



What do y'all think? Any thoughts much appreciated

 

[samsncharge99]

i'm always a fan of riding it out for a single future bet. If it were like a 10-15 team parlay, then i tend to be in favor of hedging

I would also let it ride until week 18. Like you said yourself, you can do a 1 week hedge if needed to guarantee

 

[Tanko]

I always look to hedge but it might be a little too soon for that in this situation.

I've even hedged small plays on MNF games when I'm in the money on our $25K NFL contest.

 

[stormtrooper8]

i'm always a fan of riding it out for a single future bet. If it were like a 10-15 team parlay, then i tend to be in favor of hedging

I would also let it ride until week 18. Like you said yourself, you can do a 1 week hedge if needed to guarantee

I always look to hedge but it might be a little too soon for that in this situation.

I've even hedged small plays on MNF games when I'm in the money on our $25K NFL contest.

I'm kind of leaning towards option 3

Honestly I'm just thrilled I jumped on it at +530

Call it bias, but I don't see how Cincinnati isn't clearly better than Baltimore

 

[edawg]

Hedging is all mental especially if you already got an excellent price. It comes down to if you rather take a smaller profit or want to ride it out for a bigger payday. Good Luck

 

[stormtrooper8]

If I bet 5k on Ravens right now at -125 I’m guaranteed to break even

Then Bengals win I profit 16.2k

Let it ride and it hits its 21.2k

Kind of tricky odds wise. Ravens schedule is just comically easy, though Steelers are showing some fight

 

[edawg]

Remember that on future bets that you can hedge along the way. You can put some money on the Browns ml and Ravens ml this week as they both are dogs. Just have fun and guarantee a profit if you decide to hedge.

 

[Headsterx]

Let it ride! Bengals are on a tear and something is up with Lamar. Ravens are always in close games now and will falter at the end. They are not winning at Cincinnati at the last game.

 

[sharpsquare]

I'm kind of leaning towards option 3

Honestly I'm just thrilled I jumped on it at +530

Call it bias, but I don't see how Cincinnati isn't clearly better than Baltimore

I like option 3 the most as well

 

[Stallion]

Lamar Jackson is week to week I would let it ride for now...

 

[keithrichard]

I like door number 3.

 

[samsncharge99]

Other way to think about is how you gamble and cash out

short term let it ride for bigger payout and maybe cash out

long term then you are pro or semi pro and want the smaller profit for the long term end game

again im degenerate and short term so im letting it ride

 

[stormtrooper8]

I really appreciate all the comments. Thanks guys

If I posted this thread at one of the other sites it would have started a fight lmao

 

[Wagerallsports]

It all boils down to how much is at risk & can be won, and how much it means to you financially

 

[samsncharge99]

Wager….im excited to show off 2 of my new ugly sweaters this week based on your profile pic of Elf.

 

[stormtrooper8]

It all boils down to how much is at risk & can be won, and how much it means to you financially

Frankly I don't care much if I lose the 4k on this bet. Which is making me inclined to just go with door 1 and ride it

If I do cash the bet and Ohio State upsets Georgia, I'm going to spend at least some of the winnings on attending the CFP national championship game at Sofi Stadium (the very next day I believe lol)

Flying often cheaper believe it or not, but I may just do the drive because I love road trips in Cali

 

[Ace7550]

If it were me I'd partially hedge now and just turn it into a free roll. But I like hedging so I'm biased. Good luck and nice bet!

 

[BigJay]

I was trying to find their records vs the division so far this year. Isn’t that the second tiebreaker? Given the fact that if the Bengals beat them in the season finale head to head would be a tie of course.

 

[Ace7550]

I was trying to find their records vs the division so far this year. Isn’t that the second tiebreaker? Given the fact that if the Bengals beat them in the season finale head to head would be a tie of course.

Ravens are 2-0 and Cinci is 1-3 vs division.

 

[stormtrooper8]

Lamar probably out for 3 weeks is what I'm hearing