Burning Questions Continued
Will third time be a charm for Joe Milton III? In his first start at Michigan in 2020, Milton threw for 225 yards and had a raw QBR of 94.0. His QBR for the rest of the season: 37.2. He was supplanted by
Cade McNamara and transferred to Tennessee, where he once again won the starting job ... and once again struggled. He went a combined 18-for-35 for 189 yards against Bowling Green and Pitt, took five sacks and got benched again, this time in favor of Hendon Hooker, who started most of the next two years.
Milton's arm has seduced both Michigan's Jim Harbaugh and Tennessee's Josh Heupel. It's
one of the best arms you'll ever see at the collegiate level. Effortless 60-yard flicks, that kind of stuff. But when it comes to football decision-making, Milton has shown limitations. He hasn't been able to make the transition from "great thrower" to "great quarterback."
In 2023, Milton will get something college players usually don't: a third chance. Milton filled in for an injured Hooker late in 2022 and went a combined 30-of-49 for 398 yards, four touchdowns and no picks (with, yes, another four sacks) against first Vanderbilt, then Clemson in the Orange Bowl. Comfortable wins gave the Vols a No. 6 final AP ranking, and Milton entered the offseason as not only the presumptive starter but also, to many, a Heisman sleeper.
It's never good preview writing to say, "Everything comes down to the quarterback" -- it doesn't exactly entice people to keep reading. But if Milton indeed takes the leap we've been expecting for years, the sky's the limit. The Vols return two running backs (
Jabari Small and
Jaylen Wright) who combined for 1,609 yards and 23 TDs last season, plus three of last year's top five receivers (and big-play Oregon transfer
Dont'e Thornton Jr.).
Biletnikoff winner Jalin Hyatt is gone after catching 67 passes for 1,267 yards and 15 touchdowns, but "slot receiver in a Heupel offense" is one of the most guaranteed big-play positions in the sport -- sophomore
Squirrel White (30 for 481 last year) will likely have a huge year in Hyatt's place. The line is loaded with veterans too. Milton has everything he needs for a breakthrough, and if he doesn't take advantage of it, blue-chip freshman
Nico Iamaleava might be ready sooner than later.
With the tempo that Heupel deploys, his defense is guaranteed to see a lot of plays and drives in a given season. But the Vols still jumped from 88th to 30th in defensive SP+ in 2022, and the unit's depth should be better this year. Of 21 defenders who saw at least 200 snaps last season, 14 return, and Heupel added two BYU starters (linebacker
Keenan Pili and corner
Gabe Jeudy-Lally) and part-time Arizona State starting tackle
Omarr Norman-Lott. Linebacker
Aaron Beasley is an incredibly disruptive presence,
Kamal Hadden is one of the SEC's better cornerbacks, and while the line lacks a slam-dunk star, lots of guys have made plays at one point or another. Blue-chippers such as tackle
Daevin Hobbs might be ready to play a role too. There's a lot to like here.
How long might it take Billy Napier at Florida? It's not hard to figure out why Florida fans seem pretty miserable right now. The Gators' three main rivals -- Georgia (two straight national titles), Tennessee (first top-10 finish in 21 years) and Florida State (highest poll finish in six years) -- all enjoyed particularly high levels of play last season, while Florida went 6-7 for the second straight year. Even if the Gators had won eight or nine games, the fan base would feel pretty down about being worse than the opponents that matter most.
They'll probably be worse than those teams in 2023 too. While Georgia will be the preseason No. 1 and the Vols and Seminoles will get lots of top-10 votes, Florida will be facing what SP+ sees as the hardest schedule in the country with another transitional roster -- a new starting quarterback, at least five other new offensive starters and mega turnover at linebacker and in the secondary. Florida returns a dynamite pair of running backs in
Montrell Johnson Jr. and
Trevor Etienne, plus a stellar slot man in
Ricky Pearsall, and second-year head coach Billy Napier is starting to put together the physical, oversized lines he won a lot of games with at Louisiana.
This could be a solidly improved team if either Wisconsin transfer
Graham Mertz or sophomore
Jack Miller III come through at quarterback. But neither inspired serious confidence in the spring, and both have taken far too many sacks in their respective careers. (Granted, the sample size is pretty small with Miller.) Mertz was a celebrated recruit when he arrived in Wisconsin but ranked 67th, 76th and 80th in Total QBR in three years as a starter. Napier and offensive coordinator Rob Sale have done their best work with dual-threat quarterbacks, and Mertz ... is not that. Miller might be.
Overall, it seemed like Florida was basically the same team over the past two years -- the 2021 team was 6-7 and 33rd in SP+, and the 2022 team was 6-7 and 34th. But while Napier & Co. were able to engineer some growth on offense and special teams, the Gators slipped from 54th to 69th in defensive SP+. They were dreadfully inefficient, and they weren't good enough at big-play prevention or red zone defense to pull off bend-don't-break. They kept six or fewer players in the box most of the time in an attempt to better stop the pass and play with speed, and they didn't really stop the pass.
Former Southern Miss coordinator Austin Armstrong takes over; he got the job by piloting an extremely aggressive and efficient Golden Eagles D, and he'll have a size advantage most of the time thanks to players such as
Desmond Watson (6-foot-5, 449 pounds!),
Chris McClellan (6-foot-3, 321) and Memphis transfer
Cam Jackson (6-foot-6, 355). But last year's top four linebackers are gone, as are both safeties and nickelback
Tre'Vez Johnson. If Armstrong attempts aggression with a bunch of new safety valves, the Gators could get burned quite a bit, especially considering Florida plays
four projected top-10 teams and nine projected top-40 teams. This should be a borderline top-30 team itself, but there are only about three truly likely wins on the schedule. Finishing over .500 will require winning tight games against good teams.
Will newcomers fix Kentucky's offense? As with Napier's first year at Florida, Mark Stoops' first Kentucky team was basically a carbon copy of the one before it. After going 2-10 with a No. 81 SP+ ranking in 2012, Stoops' Wildcats went 2-10 and ranked 73rd. The story of his first five years was one of slow growth. But the defense finally clicked, and it's been a different trajectory ever since.
Kentucky, 2013-17: 0.420 win percentage, 58.6 average SP+ ranking (57.2 offense, 66.6 defense)
Kentucky, 2018-22: 0.635 win percentage, 23.6 average SP+ ranking (79.4 offense, 9.4 defense)
Over the past five years, the school has had as many defenders picked in the first three rounds of the NFL draft -- six -- as it had in the 28 years before that. And in 2022, the Wildcats finished fourth in defensive SP+ with a relatively young unit (freshmen such as tackle
Deone Walker and safety
Jordan Lovett played major roles). Kentucky almost never blitzed or forced the issue, instead handcuffing opponents with brilliant tackling and frustrating zone coverage. That's pretty replicable for 2023, though it will require a couple of new cornerbacks. Keidron Smith and Carrington Valentine were excellent, and while
Andru Phillips will likely move from nickel to corner and play really well, that opens a hole at nickel.
Barring some sort of domino effect in the secondary, the defense will probably be excellent again. That the Wildcats went just 7-6 last season with this defense tells you where the primary issues were. Kentucky plummeted from 47th to 97th in offensive SP+ in 2022; quarterback Will Levis was banged up, star back Chris Rodriguez Jr. missed the first month, and three of Levis' top four targets (and his left guard) were freshmen. That's a recipe for regression. Still, nothing went according to plan in UK's first year without offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who had left to become the Los Angeles Rams' OC. Since things didn't really go well with the Rams, either, Coen returned.
Coen was in charge of Kentucky's only top-50 offense since 2016, and he'll have some decent toys to play with. For starters, those key freshmen are sophomores. That includes high-efficiency slot man
Barion Brown and left guard
Jager Burton, both of whom were star recruits and solid contributors. (Burton is one of four returning linemen.) It also includes another veteran quarterback who, like Levis, battled through a disappointing 2022.
Devin Leary comes over from NC State; after a solid 2021 and top-30 Total QBR ranking, Leary's stats regressed in virtually every category last season, then he was lost to injury in October.
Kentucky has averaged eight wins a year over the past half-decade, and that's pretty good living in Lexington. But if the Wildcats have grander ambitions (like, say, a repeat of 2021's 10-win campaign), it will require Coen to capture some magic with Leary like he did with Levis two years ago.
Is Optimist or Pessimist more convincing in South Carolina? Shane Beamer is the master of optics. His first two South Carolina teams produced particularly good performances at the best possible times, generating solid buzz in the process.
In 2021, his Gamecocks went 7-6 with four losses by 25-plus points, but they thumped Florida, won the Duke's Mayo Bowl by 17 points and signed blue-chip quarterback transfer
Spencer Rattler, and Beamer took
the most famous bath of the season. In 2022, the Gamecocks lost four games by double digits (including three to .500ish Arkansas, Missouri and Florida teams) but finished the regular season by pummeling Tennessee and ending a seven-game losing streak to Clemson.
Beamer's two seasons featured one good defense (2021), one good offense (2022) and almost nonstop special teams excellence. Thanks to the combination of Beamer's last name and a dynamite special teams coordinator in Pete Lembo, that last part probably isn't going to change. But both the offense and defense are difficult to read heading into 2023. So let's play a game of Optimist vs. Pessimist.
In the South Carolina offense, an optimist would note that Rattler returns, along with 900-yard receiver
Antwane Wells Jr. and high-level newcomers in receiver
Eddie Lewis (Memphis), tight ends Trey Knox (Arkansas) and Joshua Simon (Western Kentucky) and all-world freshman Nyckoles Harbor, who has the speed of a track star and the size of a tight end. And while the offensive line lost three starters, Beamer brought in four starters from smaller schools.
A pessimist would note that Rattler was only 65th in Total QBR last season, held back by 12 interceptions and a high sack rate (the same mistakes that held him back at Oklahoma). And now he won't have star running back
MarShawn Lloyd or receiver
Jalen Brooks to lean on. The Gamecocks were reliant on big plays to overcome inefficiency (76th in success rate, 85th in three-and-out rate), but Lloyd and Brooks were the biggest providers of those big plays. Offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield also is gone, replaced by Arkansas assistant Dowell Loggains. That's a lot of change.
In the South Carolina defense, the optimist would point out that, while the Gamecocks fell from 17th to 56th in defensive SP+, the pass defense was excellent despite a pair of freshmen (safety
Nick Emmanwori and nickel
DQ Smith) playing major roles. Emmanwori and Smith are back, as is an absolute star in senior corner
Marcellas Dial. And while there's a lot of turnover in the front seven, the front seven last season stunk! There's plenty of room for growth.
The pessimist would counter that the front seven didn't just stink -- that group was
abysmal. South Carolina ranked 127th in rushing success rate allowed, 130th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line) and 110th in sack rate. That sets a low bar, but things aren't guaranteed to improve with the Gamecocks losing defensive tackle Zacch Pickens (a third-round NFL draft pick) and 10-TFL edge man
Gilber Edmond (transfer to Florida State).
Is the optimist's or pessimist's case more convincing? And even if the optimist wins out, what's the Gamecocks' ceiling against the second-hardest schedule in the country?
Does Missouri have a quarterback? Like Beamer, Missouri coach Eliah Drinkwitz has done everything well at least once in his three seasons in charge. His 2021 offense was good, his 2022 defense great. He's had three good special teams units and should have a fourth thanks to the return of burly kicker
Harrison Mevis.
After two defensive coordinator changes in two years, Drinkwitz's third hire was the charm:
Blake Baker clicked beautifully in 2022 and brings back 12 of 16 players with 250-plus snaps. He's got potential all-conference performers at every level of the defense, from lineman
Darius Robinson to linebackers
Ty'Ron Hopper and
Chad Bailey to safety
Jaylon Carlies and, especially, corners
Ennis Rakestraw Jr. and
Kris Abrams-Draine, who combined for not only 25 passes defended but also 3.5 TFLs and five run stops.
With the defense seemingly on a solid trajectory, one thing continues to hold Drinkwitz and Mizzou back: the quarterback position. There's a chance Drinkwitz heads into 2023 with his fourth season-opening starter in four years.
Mind you, incumbent
Brady Cook could still be the guy. He combined 2,739 passing yards with 754 pre-sack rushing yards while playing most of last season with a torn labrum in his right shoulder. After an offseason of rehab, maybe he thrives under new coordinator Kirby Moore. (Moore came over from Fresno State after Drinkwitz relinquished playcalling duties.) Or maybe he proves that last year's limitations are permanent. Drinkwitz has long leaned on horizontal passing as an efficiency weapon, but it's not that efficient if you can't also stress defenses with vertical passing, and Cook's completion rate on passes of 20-plus yards ranked 98th nationally. With two former blue-chippers in camp -- sophomore Miami transfer
Jake Garcia and redshirt freshman
Sam Horn -- Cook will have to win the job all over again.
If either Cook, Garcia or Horn thrives under Moore, the rest could take care of itself. Veteran backs
Cody Schrader and
Nathaniel Peat return after combining for 1,386 yards from scrimmage, and former all-world recruit
Luther Burden III moves to slot receiver after an inconsistent but tantalizing freshman debut. Losing last year's two yardage leaders (Georgia-bound
Dominic Lovett and
Barrett Banister) hurts, but Drinkwitz brought in a pair of big-play transfers in
Theo Wease (Oklahoma) and Dannis Jackson (Ole Miss), who averaged 20.1 yards per catch last season (albeit on just 31 combined receptions). The offensive line should be Drinkwitz's best to date, returning three starters (including second-team all-conference tackle
Javon Foster), two part-time starters (freshman tackle
Armand Membou was outstanding late in 2022) and three starters from elsewhere, including all-AAC guard Cam'Ron Johnson from Houston.
Mizzou ranks second in FBS in returning production, and Drinkwitz's transfer additions on offense were astute. The Tigers are projected favorites in four of their first five games, and the fifth (home vs. Kansas State) is an almost perfect toss-up. They have a shot at a fast start and a breakthrough year ... if they have a QB. Again, I don't like saying everything comes down to one position, but it sure seems to be the case in Columbia.
Can Vandy's scouting-and-development culture work in the portal era? When Clark Lea took over at Vanderbilt in 2021, he immediately acknowledged the need to do things differently. The Commodores have finished above .500 just three times in 40 seasons, and while the 2010s were kinder to Vandy than other decades (two nine-win seasons, plus three other bowl seasons and 6-7 finishes), they're always pushing the boulder uphill in Nashville. Lea was one of the first coaches to create a "general manager" position, and he gave the job to 247Sports recruiting analyst Barton Simmons, an old friend. Whatever success Lea has at Vanderbilt, it will come from excellent scouting and development.
That the Commodores won two of their last three games last season -- tight upsets of Kentucky and Florida -- certainly created some optimism.
Ray Davis and quarterback Mike Wright combined to rush for 255 yards against UK's excellent defense, and we briefly got a glimpse of what a successful future might look like.
That glimpse lasted only so long. Davis transferred to Kentucky, Wright to Mississippi State. In the spring, promising young corner Jadais Richard transferred to Miami. In two seasons, 12 Commodores have transferred to other power-conference programs. In the era of the transfer portal and freer player movement, the path to riding development to success seems a lot bumpier. If you develop 20 players into potential stars, you might keep only 10 of them in town.
Vandy does still return some exciting players: Wideout
Will Sheppard is efficient, defensive tackle
Christian James is extremely disruptive for a 290-pounder, linebacker
Ethan Barr is a sure tackler and coordinator Nick Howell got above-average disruption out of safeties
De'Rickey Wright and
Jaylen Mahoney and nickel
CJ Taylor. Even so, there are fewer proven player here than on any other SEC East roster. And even with those good defensive players, Vandy was a dismal 94th in defensive SP+ last year.
If Vanderbilt surprises in 2023, it feels like the offense will be the reason why, even with the transfers. Sophomore
AJ Swann was the primary passer in 2022 and had bright moments against Ole Miss and South Carolina, and last year's top four wideouts, including Sheppard and sophomore slot
Jayden McGowan, return. Of the eight linemen who started at least one game, seven are back, including a rock-solid center in
Julian Hernandez. Vandy is starting over at running back, but if the line is good, the running game will at least be serviceable.
A weak nonconference slate with three opponents projected 107th or worse will give Vandy a chance to build early confidence, but the Commodores are projected as double-digit underdogs in each of their nine other games. Still, if they're able to both find some new, young stars and then hold on to them, this will be a pretty successful season.
