Polling & Betting Reality Check: Betting markets are massively overvaluing Trump’s chances, but the reality? His odds are slim. Here’s the deal:Ann Selzer’s Polling Speaks Volumes
Polls like the Des Moines Register/Selzer poll, which shows Harris up by 3 points in Iowa—a state that went +8 Trump in 2020—are significant signals. This isn’t just any data; it’s from Ann Selzer, the “gold standard” in state-level polling, with an impeccable record spanning multiple elections. When Harris leads in a state as historically red-leaning as Iowa, it’s a clear indicator that her momentum is strong across the Midwest and Rust Belt, precisely where the election could be won.
Betting Markets ≠Polling Data
Let’s be clear: betting markets capture emotions and biases, not voting behavior or turnout. They’re speculative at best, driven by bettors’ leanings and often fueled by the MAGA echo chamber rather than real data. Betting odds aren’t predictions; they’re a product for engagement, hyped up by platforms and selective media coverage that feeds Trump’s inflated odds. This cycle of "earned media" coverage creates an illusion of confidence that doesn’t align with the polling realities.
The truth? Harris has undeniable momentum in key states, backed by data from trusted pollsters like Ann Selzer. The markets may look tempting, but they can’t capture the actual voter sentiment or polling trends pointing to a clear shift towards a blue wave. Betting odds are a product of hype, not of the genuine electoral landscape.
Trump’s Odds Are Overinflated
Despite what betting markets and their MAGA echo chamber would have you believe, national and state polls consistently show Harris with a lead in crucial states she needs to secure a win. Betting markets keep inflating Trump’s odds based on the 2016 upset, but the polling methodologies have evolved since then. We’re in a different political and social climate, and the hard data shows Harris holding a solid edge. Treating betting odds like they’re poll results? That’s a recipe for misplaced optimism—and bets.
Bottom Line: Betting on Harris at plus money is the clear +EV move. Betting markets are full of sentiment and are detached from the credible polling data showing her strength in key states. Selzer’s track record, along with the recent shifts in Midwest polling, are leading to a blue wave.
Put your money on HARRIS
Harris will win.
Goodbye MAGA!
