Saturday-Friday May 24 Taters, Dingers&Punchouts

[piratealew]

Awesome Friday, hope Saturday brings us more good news and positve results.

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

Queens of NY Mess-123 (NYMets)
️⭐️NY Pinstripers-1.5-135 (Yankees, d'oh)
⭐️Chiberia Cubs-1-138
⭐️Murderopolis Twinks-111
⭐️Puritan City Red Sux-108
⭐️Arizona Snakes-139
⭐️Tampons Manta Rays+120 (Tampa Bay Rays)
⭐️Mutt City Asstros-140 (Houston)
⭐️Sunflower Royals-1-128 (kansas City)
⭐️Phillies/Nats Over 7-120
⭐️Anaheim Lost Angels/Texas Lone Rangers OVER 8-120
Killadelphia Fightin Phillies-1-120
San Dog Chaplains+112 (Padres)
LA Doyers-1.5+100
Smaltimore Orioles-103
Fog City Gigantes-1-128 (San Fran)
Texas Strangers-130
NY Mutts/Slorida Fish Over 7-130
Rockies/Gigantes Over 7-130
Detroit/Arizona Over 7.5-110
Tampa/Toronto Over 7-110 (See writeup)

**Found one very hitter-friendly umpire today that would qualify for an over, but addmitedly, the pitching matchup is a bit tougher with 2 really good SP's going. However, the umpire in this game clearly favors hitters with a big strike zone, which will force the pitchers to throw more in the sweet spot over the plate. In Toronto, the home plate Ump is Mark Carlson. His games are 7-2 to the over this year, or 77.8% to the over. His avg ERA for his games is 5.2 (Most umps are in the mid to high 3's). Only 2 of his games this year have gone under today's posted total with 5 and 4 runs in pitcher friendly parks (Tex/SFO); on the year his games avg 11.3 runs partly due to his wide strike zone/causing higher than normal ERA's, more issued walks, and a strike % call this year of only 62%.

His games have resulted in 11, 10, 21, 4, 5, 15, 11, 12, and 13. Notice how many are 10+. None of his games were played in Colorado. That would be 7 games with 10 runs or more and with 2 coming in lower. If the pitching matchup wasn't as strong, I'd love it even more but with this ump, there'a better likelihood of more runs being scored than avg. His last 2 years have produced 55% overs, with an average runs per game of 9.5 over 69 games last 2 years. This isn't just a recent thing, he's always been hitter-friendly. I have this game pegged just over the total at 8 runs, and with some umpiring help, it would push it tonight another run or two over, hopefully.
This isn't the strongest "umpire over" like the last few, as the Starting pitching is a tier above those prior games.
It is also worth mentioning one more factor that should help this total, Toronto's bullpen ERA is the 3rd worst in MLB at .492, While Tampa sits 8th from last at a .440 ERA. Not a top play as I have Tampa to win already.

 

[piratealew]

Sorry, forgot to include up top-. 13-8 Friday, 7-3 Top plays, 502-427 YTD/ (268-199 Top plays)

 

[piratealew]

another "Umpire Over" play cashes. 9-0 the last week or so.

 

[piratealew]

⭐️Bump City A's/Kansas City Royals Over 9-115
Boston/St Louis Over 8-130

Note: Umpire in St Louis is Mark Wegner, 57% of his games are hitting the over this year with the least being 4 and most being 21, with a strike call ratio of 62.9%, and averaging 10 runs per contest in the 8 he has officiated this year (7, 4, 21, 5, 13, 8, 10, 12). Again, none of these were in Mile High Colorado. On the Mound for the cards is a well-known commodity in Mikolas who is a gas can and a half a lot of times. He is a fly ball pitcher prone to the home run ball. Last 3 games he gave up 16 runs (6, 4, 6) and posts an over 6 ERA.

 

[piratealew]

11-9 Sat/513-436 YTD/(271-206 Top plays)
All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

Guardians-115
Red Sox-110
Cubs-118
Yanks-1.5-136
Tampa+100
Mets-132
Padres+110
Brewers+120
Royals-1-108
Rocks/Giants Over 7.5-115
Detroit/Ozone Dbacks 8-120
Orioles-144
Dodgers-1-115
Nationals+2-130
Angels+140
Diamondbacks-138
Tampa/Toronto Over 8-120
Oakland/KC Over 8.5-125
Mets/Marlin Over 7.5-120

**Note: "Umpire Overs" have been great this past week or so, now 10-0. After just over a month, we finally have enough data/games to make them meaningful. Umpire assignments for today's games havent been published yet (usually late morning or a couple hours before game times). May have a play or two or elevate a total after the umpire info is released.

 

[doyleellis11]

Thank You Mr Pirate

 

[piratealew]

Found the first "Umpire Over" of the day and it's Boston Red Sox/St Louis Cards Over with Bruce Dreckman as the HP Ump. He is a notoriously hitter friendly Umpire, posting a whopping 7-1 to the over this year, with an astronomical 12.8 runs per game in his 8, and a strike call ratio of 64%. His lowest total game was 6 and that's the only one coming in lower than today's total of 8. His games have like this with most recent to last 11, 18, 6, 13, 13, 12, 13, 16. The common number with this guy seems to be 13. His last red sox game he umped was Balty/Bos in which 12 runs were scored, the game before that he did a Cards game against MIami in STL, and that game posted 13 runs. Interestingly, his one game he officiated with a "pitchers dual" was Braves and Phils in which Fried and Nola faced off---16 runs were scored in that affair. None of these games were in Colorado.
There's no pitcher dual forecast today--With the cards sending Liberdore for an opener and a Bull pen day remaining, and with Sox throwing Pivetta who is prone to the long ball, I feel more confident in this over today. Further aiding our efforts at the over is the wind---a light 5-6 mph breeze to left Center, temps in the low 70s with a humidity the same as the temp will help the ball fly a bit further.

Boston/St Louis Over 8-115

 

[doyleellis11]

Great Call Pirate ! 5 th inng lay-up !! Thank You Sir !!!

 

[joe]

Good call Pirate!! Thanks

 

[piratealew]

Found the first "Umpire Over" of the day and it's Boston Red Sox/St Louis Cards Over with Bruce Dreckman as the HP Ump. He is a notoriously hitter friendly Umpire, posting a whopping 7-1 to the over this year, with an astronomical 12.8 runs per game in his 8, and a strike call ratio of 64%. His lowest total game was 6 and that's the only one coming in lower than today's total of 8. His games have like this with most recent to last 11, 18, 6, 13, 13, 12, 13, 16. The common number with this guy seems to be 13. His last red sox game he umped was Balty/Bos in which 12 runs were scored, the game before that he did a Cards game against MIami in STL, and that game posted 13 runs. Interestingly, his one game he officiated with a "pitchers dual" was Braves and Phils in which Fried and Nola faced off---16 runs were scored in that affair. None of these games were in Colorado.
There's no pitcher dual forecast today--With the cards sending Liberdore for an opener and a Bull pen day remaining, and with Sox throwing Pivetta who is prone to the long ball, I feel more confident in this over today. Further aiding our efforts at the over is the wind---a light 5-6 mph breeze to left Center, temps in the low 70s with a humidity the same as the temp will help the ball fly a bit further.

Boston/St Louis Over 8-115

Another Umpire Over cashed easy! 11-0

 

[steelers76]

Good call Pirate!! Thanks

welcome to the site

 

[piratealew]

Awesome Sunday-hit the top 2 plays, 13-6, 8-4 Top plays/526-442 YTD/ (279-210 Top plays)
Also cashed another "umpire over" play, now 11-0 on those over the last few days. Finally with meaningful data and enough games it's making the plays even better.

*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Astros-1-134
⭐️Braves-120 (GAME 1)
⭐️Yankees-130
⭐️Brewers-125
⭐️Orioles+100
⭐️Guardians-120
⭐️Toronto-1-137
⭐️Tigers/Royals Over 8.5-115
Dodgers-1.5-114
Tampa-105
Twins-1-125
Tigers+106
San Dog/Atlanta Over 7.5-115
Brewers/Marlins Over 7.5-125
Baltimore/St Louis Over 7.5-120

****Note-San Diego/ATL technincally qualifies as an "Umpire over" as Phil Cuzzi is behind the plate. Admittedly, this isn't one of my favorites as the pitching matchup is stronger in this one so we may need some extra help from a generous Ump in Cuzzi, and braves bats have quieted lately. Cuzzi is 5-2 to the over this year, or 71.4%, with an average ERA in his games of 4.7 (higher than avg). His 9 games behind the plate have averaged 10.2 runs (most recent first: 7, 18, 15, 7, 9, 3, 14, 9, and 10). Also, none of his games were in Mile HIgh colorado. He is calling about 63.7% of pitches strikes, lower than avg, which is leading to inflated ERA's with a few more walks per game leading to more runs. With the total at 7.5, only 3 of the games went under today's total, with 2 hitting right at 7. Interestingly, Cuzzi was not as generous to hitters in past seasons, hitting 41.5% over last 2 seasons before this year, with an avg of 8.5 runs per game. 'll take the law of averages and this Ump's new-found kindness to hitters this season and hope for a little help with Cuzzi. I have this game pegged at 8 runs before umpiring so it may be tight, which is where Cuzzi may come in.

 

[piratealew]

the braves over is for game 1

 

[doyleellis11]

Another Winner !

 

[piratealew]

Thank you, now 12-0 on the umpire over calls. Braves blew a 5-0 lead. With that said, while I hate playing cold teams against hot teams, the pitching matchup screams Braves, along with the fact they will not want to get swept at home. Much like game 1 they will look to jump on Vasquez early but they should have even more success than against Cease. Sale should be able to keep Padres quiet. San Diego is 0-4 in Vasquez starts while Brave are 6-2 in Sale's starts, and he posts a 2-0, 1.69 ERA in 2 starts against San Dog, While Vasquez gave up 2 runs in 3 innings in one start against Atlanta.

⭐️Braves-1.5-113 Game 2

 

[piratealew]

Missed posting the Jays over for another umpire over, had just got back a few minutes before first pitch. I won't miss the night game opportunity here.

***Next Umpire Overs is one of my favorite overs ump, and one we've used once before. Mark Ripperger is doing the Milwaukee/Miami game, and I am elevating my above to a top play now. His games are averaging 10 runs per game, he is 7-1-1 to the over this year in 9 games. His lowest total was 3 runs, and most was 17 (2 times). They go like this 3, 7, 8, 9, 9, 10, 10, 17, 17. Only 2 games have gone under tonight's posted total. He is also seeing pitchers avg a high 4.5 ERA this year in his games. Over his last 2 years and 70 games umped, he is avg 56.15 to the over, with 9.3 runs per game over 2 years. This guy is a pitcher's nemesis. Already loved the over before this due to the pitching as the Brew Crew is 17th in MLB with a 4.0 ERA While the marlins are an almost last 27th with a 5.13 ERA, and on the offensive side, both teams are adept in scoring with runners in position, Milwaukee is 2nd in MLB with a .864 OPS and Miami is 16th with a .738 OPS. This combined with the umpire info makes me make this also a top total.


⭐️Brewers/Marlins Over 7.5-125

 

[doyleellis11]

Let’s do it again Boss! Good luck Riding Myself , Thank You Sir !

 

[piratealew]

Snake bit Monday on the wrong side of all the collapses.
Tuesday's games
*All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays.*Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Brewers-130
⭐️Orioles-134
⭐️Dodgers-1-115
⭐️Tampa-130
⭐️Royals-106
⭐️Cubs+115
⭐️Phillies-1-109
⭐️Rockies+122
⭐️Yanks-145
⭐️Minnesota/Washington Over 8-120 (See writeup)
⭐️Mutts/Guardians Over 9-115 (See writeup)
⭐️Chicago/Toronto Over 7-114
Guardians-117
Padres-112
Giants-125
Yankees-146
Toronto-1-110
Astros-1-140
Nationals+2-130
Rangers/Phils Over 8-115
Yanks/Mariners Over 7.5-115
Orioles/Cards Over 8.5-120

12-1 On "Umpire Overs"
***First "Umpire Over" is Minnesota/Washington Over 8. In this game we have Adrian Johnson, a notorious and prodigious Hitter-friendly Ump. Hin his last 2 years he's hitting close to 60% overs, and 9.3 runs per game, with around 62-63% called strikes but this year so far, even better, as he's 6-2-1 to the over, with 11.8 runs per game on avg, and 61.9% called strikes (very low). The ERA for his 9 names is an astronomical 5,7. He is really squeezing pitchers strike K zone...only 1 game has gone under today's posted total, and 2 have pushed (Most recent games first--12, 16, 18, 8, 9, 8, 6, 15, 14). A lot of double digit scoring games, and NONE were in Colorado! With the pitching and recent hitting of the 2 teams, and in a mostly hitter friendly park this time of year, I feel confident in this over.
***2nd Umpire Over--NY Mutts/Cleveland Over 9. This game features another hitter friendly ump in Todd Tichenor who is 5-3 to the over or 62.5% this year. He's not as pro hitter as the aforementioned Adrian Johnson but digging in, he's avg about 63% called strikes this year with 9.9 runs per game. 3 games have gone under tonights total and those games featured pitching duals with shut down pitchers. Clev/NY tonight features 2 pitchers who are gas cans with bloated ERA's, in a mostly pitcher friendly park, however there is a light breeze out tonight and the ump should help here some. His games have gone like this run-wise 11, 10, 13, 7, 16, 5, 7, 10. Most recent being first and none in Colorado. I dont like this one as much as the one above but it is a decent play here, given the pitching tonight (houser for mets has a 7.44 era, And carrasco has over a 5 ERA). The avg ERA for Ticherno's games this year is a very high 4.9 ERA.
Lean/No play (as of yet)--In tampa the umpire is Vic Carapazza, who is 5-4 to the over this year but is slightly more hitter friendly with a 4.4 ERA and 9.6 runs per game. No play on him or this total for now but will monitor lineups and see if this is a decent play on the total later this afternoon.

 

[piratealew]

Yanks should just be a star play not regular

 

[piratealew]

*** 2 More Umpire "Umpire Overs"--One is a play I've already played earlier Texas@Philly. This game features Ryan Blakney behind home plate, he is 4-1-2 to the over this year, or 80%, his avg runs per game is 9.6, w/an avg ERA of 4.5. Only one game has come in under this total with 2 that have pushed going like this 8, 8, 12, 16, 5, 9, 9. This game does feature 2 solid pitchers but also 2 high octane offenses. With a little help from Blakney, we should see this total go over.

Texas@Philly Over 8-115 (Played above)

Other umpire Over is San Fran/Pittsburgh Over 8. Dan Bellino is umpiring this game with a 55.6% hit rate on the over, and only 3 games going under the posted total tonight of 8. His games have gone 13, 14, 6, 13, 7, 9, 3, 11, 17. None were in Colorado. I like this over a bit more as the umpiring is favoring the hitting as the pitching has been less than spectacular, Perez has an ERA of 4.84, and Webb boasts a 5.92 ERA when pitching on the road. Belino's avg ERA is in his games is 4.2 with more walks issued than normal. I think we'll see more balls in play than usual in this one.

⭐️San Fran/Pitts Over 8-120

One more regular Over I'll play is the Cubs. Wind is jetting out to left center at 20-25 MPH. Routine fly balls should be jumping.

Braves/Cubs over 11-115