Saturday Aug 24-Aug 31 MLB Homers

[piratealew]

MLB Fri= 17-12 (8-7 Top plays ) Umpire Overs=55-29 last 11 days

NFL=1-2 (Cash top play-Jaguars)

MLB =1697-1519YTD/ (833-754 Top plays) Umpire Overs=190-129 Umpire Under=18-17

“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.
⭐️Brewers-124
⭐️Giants+105
⭐️Houston-118
⭐️Arizona/Boston Over 9-125 (Umpire Over-Scott Barry/9.7 Runs/low 62%K/1.99 SO/BB)
⭐️Cleveland-117
⭐️Royals+103
⭐️Dodgers-1-128
⭐️Yanks-1.5-120
⭐️Padres-144
⭐️Toronto-152
⭐️Nationals Team Total Over 3.5-105 (Nats scored 6 or more L3 Morton Gms/10.97 ERA vs Wash)
⭐️Tigers-1.5-128
⭐️Twins-135
⭐️Pirates+105
⭐️Yanks/Rocks Over 8.5-125
⭐️Arizona+106
Washington+1.5-130
Toronto Team Total Over 4.5-115
Giants+100 (F5)
Toronto-0.5-120 (F5)
Marlins+1.5-118
Padres/Mets Over 7-128 (Umpire Over-Mike Muchlinski/10.5 Runs/64% K/10 Runs in 2023)
Royals/Phils Over 9-130
Nationals/Braves Over 8-115
Tigers-0.5-140 (F5)
Brewers-120 (F5)
Giants/Mariners Over 6.5-115
Tigers Team Total Over 4.5-125
Dodgers-0.5-130 (F5)
Houston-120 (F5)
Cleveland/Texas Over 7.5-125
Twins/Cards Over 7.5-115

NCAAF Sat=280-216 (2023 Season)
⭐️FSU/GT Over 55
⭐️SMU-24-115
FSU-10-112

NFL Preseason Sat
⭐️Packers-2.5
⭐️Detroit+7
Vikings+2.5
Cowgirls-3.5
Bills+4.5
Browns ML-115
Vikings/Eagles Over 33.5

15-7 Monday/13-19 Tues/ 23-8 Wed/12-9 Thurs/17-12 Fri

Was a great week, with a nice 12-2 top play day Wed....lets keep it rolling thru the weekend, maybe have another 13-1 Saturday like a couple saturdays ago.....August/Sept is when I really turn it up, those following the last 2 years remember...

 

[piratealew]

Not usually a fan of chalk spreads, especially over 28 but I'll make an exception. D state is one of the worst teams in FCS, they allowed 62 and 57 against the 2 FBS teams they played. Add to the fact they had travel issues to HNL, and got in a day late. Now these are 18-21 year old kids so jet lag is usually fixed in 24 hours, assuming they dont go sight see/party/study, etc. Hawaii is a distracting place, I love Waikiki myself. I see Hawaii controlling both lines of scrimmage, the only worry is them taking the foot off the gas 4th qtr but they could easily be up 50+ at that point.

Hawaii-39-117

 

[piratealew]

Bronco Mendenhall's reign begins in NM and at first glance a FCS team on road favored by 13 against a FBS team might seem odd. But NM is terrible, one of the worst in FBS and while Bronco is not the HC, it will take a couple yrs to implement his system. Their defense was atrocious last year and looks to be that way this year too. Mon State is one of the best FCS teams.

Montana State-13-115

 

[G-Man!]

Lets Roll Pirate!

 

[piratealew]

Jets+2.5

 

[piratealew]

was putting them all in the older thread.

MLB Sun= 20-13 (9-8 Top plays) Umpire Overs=59-31 last 13 days

MLB =1717-1532 YTD/ (851-770 Top plays)) Umpire Overs=194-131 Umpire Under=18-18

“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Yankees-1-140
⭐️Twins-110
⭐️Phillies-149
⭐️Royals-116 (Game 1)
⭐️Toronto/Boston Over 8.5-125
⭐️Cardinals-110
⭐️Mariners-122
⭐️Pirates-109
⭐️Royals/Guardians Over 7.5-125 (Game 2)
⭐️Miami-109
⭐️Tigers/White Sox Over 9-115
⭐️Mariners/Rays Over 6.5-128
Pirates/Cubs Over 8-120
Phillies-0.5-120 (F5)
Cards/Padres Over 9-130
Royals-124 (F5) (Game 1)
Tigers-130
Twins/Braves Over 7.5-115
Pirates Team Total Over 4
Yankees-0.5-120 (F5)
KC Royals-101 (Game 2)
Toronto+0.5-105 (F5)
Marlins Team Total Over 5
Yankees Team Total Over 5
Toronto+143

Awesome week, finish Sunday strong 119-81 this week (59%). MLB- 15-7 Monday/13-19 Tues/ 23-8 Wed (12-2 Top plays)/12-9 Thurs/17-12 Fri/19-13 Sat/20-13 Sun and NFL top plays again 2-0 yesterday, believe we are on a 11-0 NFL Pre season Top play run to close out the pre season.

The toronto and totals are the full game (not the game 1 resumption game), of course.

Umpire Overs hit 3-1 yesterday, Andy fletcher didnt come thru but the Orioles over did late. Only one ump assigned so far and he's not a hitters ump. Back later.

 

[piratealew]

***1st Umpire Over is ⭐️Washington/New York Over 8.5-125 with Dan Bellino, 14-10 Over, 10.28 runs, 2.5 SO/BB Ratio. The matchup points to an over here as well with Cortes and yanks 6-1 Over in his starts. The Yanks average 5.1 runs per game, which ranks 2nd while Nats are 24th in runs allowed at 4.7. Yankees should easily blow past their average here and I expect the nats to get a couple from the yanks late.

 

[piratealew]

***2nd Umpire Over is Twins/Braves Over 7.5 (played above) with Mark Wegner who is 15-11 Over, on 9.81 Runs per, a low 2.2 SO/BB and low 62.8 K. I had this game getting to 8-9 runs but think this could go higher with Wegner calling the balls and strikes.

 

[piratealew]

***3rd Umpire Over is ⭐️Tigers/White Sox Over 9 with Brian Walsh who is only a 2 year ump but has gone over more than not both year, this year he's 15-12 Over, on 9.2 runs, while last year over 9 runs and 9-6 over. His games tend to be more high scoring than avg, and his avg Run initated is 1.5 per game, with a few games over 2 and one at 3.6 runs. This matchup pts to an over as tigers are mashing this series avg 9 runs thru first 3 this series, Madden is making his major league debut so expect a few runs from Chicago while Detroit could hit the over themselves again.

 

[piratealew]

Rockies/Marlins Over 10-120

 

[piratealew]

Great night so far, 13-1 (twins going to lose and a few others). Cashed the POD and 4 out of the top 5.

MLB Mon= 13-1 (5-0 Top plays) Umpire Overs=59-31 last 11 days

MLB =1717-1532 YTD/ (851-770 Top plays)/ Umpire Overs=194-131 Umpire Under=18-18

“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Yankees-1-140-W
⭐️Twins-110
⭐️Phillies-149-W
⭐️Royals-116 (Game 1)-W
⭐️Toronto/Boston Over 8.5-125-W
⭐️Cardinals-110
⭐️Mariners-122
⭐️Pirates-109
⭐️Royals/Guardians Over 7.5-125 (Game 2)-W
⭐️Miami-109
⭐️Tigers/White Sox Over 9-115 (Umpire Over)-
⭐️Mariners/Rays Over 6.5-128
Pirates/Cubs Over 8-120-W
Phillies-0.5-120 (F5)-L
Cards/Padres Over 9-130
Royals-124 (F5) (Game 1)-W
Tigers-130
Twins/Braves Over 7.5-115 (Umpire Over)-W
Pirates Team Total Over 4-W
Yankees-0.5-120 (F5)-W
KC Royals-101 (Game 2)-W
Toronto+0.5-105 (F5)-W
Marlins Team Total Over 5
Yankees Team Total Over 5-Push
Toronto+143-W
Rockies/Marlins Over 10-120

 

[piratealew]

Awesome Monday, cashed POD and 4 out of top 5 for a great day.

GREAT Run the last few weeks, and this past week epic-MLB- 15-7 Monday/13-19 Tues/ 23-8 Wed (12-2 Top plays)/12-9 Thurs/17-12 Fri/19-13 Sat/20-13 Sun /16-9 Monday=155-90 the last week.

MLB Mon= 16-9 (Cash POD/4 ouf of top 5) Umpire Overs=60-32 last 13 days

MLB =1733-1541 YTD/ (857-776 Top plays)/ Umpire Overs=195-132 Umpire Under=18-18

“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Yankees-1-140-W
⭐️Twins-110-L
⭐️Phillies-149-W
⭐️Royals-116 (Game 1)-W
⭐️Toronto/Boston Over 8.5-125-W
⭐️Cardinals-110-L
⭐️Mariners-122-W
⭐️Pirates-109-L
⭐️Royals/Guardians Over 7.5-125 (Game 2)-W
⭐️Miami-109-L
⭐️Tigers/White Sox Over 9-115 (Umpire Over)-Push
⭐️Mariners/Rays Over 6.5-128-L
⭐️Washington/New York Over 8.5-125 (Umpire Over-L

Pirates/Cubs Over 8-120-W
Phillies-0.5-120 (F5)-L
Cards/Padres Over 9-130-W
Royals-124 (F5) (Game 1)-W
Tigers-130-W
Twins/Braves Over 7.5-115 (Umpire Over)-W
Pirates Team Total Over 4-W
Yankees-0.5-120 (F5)-W
KC Royals-101 (Game 2)-W
Toronto+0.5-105 (F5)-W
Marlins Team Total Over 5-L
Yankees Team Total Over 5-Push
Toronto+143-W
Rockies/Marlins Over 10-120-L

 

[piratealew]

MLB Mon= 16-9 (Cash POD/4 ouf of top 5) Umpire Overs=60-32 last 13 days

MLB =1733-1541 YTD/ (857-776 Top plays)/ Umpire Overs=195-132 Umpire Under=18-18

“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Texas-135
⭐️Atlanta-102
⭐️San Diego-130
⭐️Philly-137
⭐️Dodgers-1-140
⭐️San Diego/STL Over 7.5-120 (Umpire Over-15-8 Over/10.58 Runs/LOW 2.1 SO/BB/63%K)
⭐️Cubs-123
⭐️Yankees-1-130 (F5)
⭐️Arizona-105
⭐️Boston-134
⭐️Royals+0.5-105 (F5)
⭐️Tigers-150
⭐️Brewers-106
⭐️Oakland+128
⭐️Texas/Chicago Over 8-130
⭐️Tigers/Angels Over 9-120
Mariners-146
Rockies-138
Yankees-1.5-135
Royals+145
Cubs/Pirates Over 7.5-120
Boston/Toronto Over 9.5-115
Pirates Team Total Over 3.5-105
Oakland/Cincy Over 9-130
New York/Arizona Over 8-120
Dodgers-0.5-135 (F5)
Seattle/Tampa Over 6.5-115
Yanks/Nats Over 8.5-115
Dodgers Team Total Over 4.5-120
Rockies Team Total Over 5.5-120
Texas Team Total Over 4.5-115
Brewers/Giants Over 7.5-110
Phillies/Astros UNDER 9-115

 

[inzane]

Best of luck Pirate, keep cashing...

 

[piratealew]

thanks Inzane, hope we keep it rolling!

***2nd Umpire Over is Phillies/Astros Over 8.5-115 with Nic Lentz who avgs over 9 runs per, 11-11 Over but has great metrics with a 2.08 SO/BB ratio and 63%K, which will come in hand tonight as he squeezes Verlander and Nola and the bullpens for his his average 1.5 runs. Like last game he umped, i had the total close but he pushes it over for me. For Nola's starts, Phils are 5-2 OVER last seven, over is 3-1 last four games. Verlander is 0-1, 4.50 in his last four starts, and over 40 yrs old, he wont be expected to go deep, which will put further stress on the pen. Verlander is from the area I live in now and where his parents/family still resides (Midlothian VA), 2 of my friends played High school baseball with JV and 1 at ODU so we all pull for him but tonight i'll pull for Phillies and over.

 

[piratealew]

⭐️San Diego/STL Over 7.5-120 (Umpire Over-15-8 Over/10.58 Runs/LOW 2.1 SO/BB/63%K)

Forgot to include the name-Adrian Johnson

 

[piratealew]

***3rd Umpire Over is ⭐️Texas/Chicago Over 8-with Chad Witson who is 14-9 over on 9.5 runs, and 65% K. The last 2 yrs he's + money on the over, as last year saw his games avg 10.4 runs. Pitching points to the over as Crochet is 0-3, 7.59 in his last six starts and is limited now to 65 pitches each game. he is on a mandatory pitch count til end of yr, with White sox 2nd worst pen in MLB with a 5.10 ERA. Further Texas pen is almost as bad with a 4.45 ERA (26TH), and 1.36 WHIP (27th). The over is on a 12-4 run in White sox home games and 5-0 last Crochet starts.

 

[piratealew]

***4th Umpire Over is Brewers/Giants Over 7.5 with Jodan Baker who is 16-8 Over on 9.52 Runs. Last year was similar at `19-8 over on 10.75 runs, so this guy favors the hitters last 2 yrs. Seeing him announced as ump prompted me to throw a bit more down on this over. The brewers are scoring 4.8 runs per and giants 4.3, i see both teams being able to get to the average at least and Brewers coming out with a 6-3 type win.

 

[piratealew]

***5th Umpire Over is Oakland/Cincy Over 9 wIth Ryan Wills, who is avg 10.13 runs, 12-10 over but great metrics with a 2.3 SO/BB ratio and 63% strikes. He's issuing near 7 walks a game which will help with these pitcher who should give up runs. Spence carries a 5.57 ERA and a 2.82 BAA in last 4 starts (21 IP), while reds are going with Junis as opener and Bullpen game, so i expect Oakland to exceed their avg 4 runs per game. The over is 10-3 last 13 Specnce starts for A's and 5-2 for the reds last 7, as well as 4 of Oakland's last 5 have gone over. With RSIP Oakland slashed .709 OPS and Reds .808 so I expect plenty of runs to be scored with the chances presented and Ryan issuing more walks.

 

[piratealew]

⭐️Mariners-0.5-109 (F5)