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Saturday: #19 Kentucky @ #3 Tennessee

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MinnesotaFats

MinnesotaFats

Joined
Nov 1, 2021
Messages
3,963
If KY is to cover they'll have to limit Tenn to under 35 points.

I just don't see that happening

KY will have to convert some risky 4th downs and not kick FGs if they're to get to over 24 points.

Likely 40-24 or 43 -27 type game w the back door being the only shot at a cover.

I like betting the back door cover in less quality leagues, not SEC when style points count for CFP
 

stormtrooper8

stormtrooper8

Joined
May 30, 2022
Messages
12,723
If KY is to cover they'll have to limit Tenn to under 35 points.

I just don't see that happening

KY will have to convert some risky 4th downs and not kick FGs if they're to get to over 24 points.

Likely 40-24 or 43 -27 type game w the back door being the only shot at a cover.

I like betting the back door cover in less quality leagues, not SEC when style points count for CFP
Kentucky should score north of 30 here, so it'll be up to the defense to offer some resistance
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
46,014
Kentucky vs Tenn Strengths/Weaknesses:
  • Kentucky has a good shot of slowing down the great (3rd in CFB) Tenn pass game. Their pass D is 15th in the country. That will be a good matchup to watch. Tenn will still get their passing yards but not nearly as many as they normally do.
  • Tenn run game is also good (23rd) but Kentucky Rush D is good too (34th).
  • Kentucky run game will be shutdown by Tenn rush-D (6th in CFB).
So where is Tennessee's achilles heal? Their pass D. They are dead-a$$ lasts in NCAA pass D (#131) allowing 332 ypg. Kentucky's pass game is decent enough to capitalize on the Vol's secondary. Will Levis will have some impressive stats this week. If he doesn't the Wildcats will not cover.

The passing game will be fun to watch. Its the key to the game on both sides of the ball.

Almost every metric I look at is telling me take the points and cash the ticket.
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
57,016
Kentucky at Tennessee (-12, 61½): The road team in this series has won outright three straight years. The Wildcats have covered their last four as an underdog. The Volunteers are 6-1 ATS this season, and the over is 15-4 in Tennessee’s past 19 games. The under is 7-1 in Kentucky’s last eight games.
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
46,014
I am 1000000% on the Wildcats in this one. +12.5

Kentucky vs Tenn Strengths/Weaknesses:
  • Kentucky has a good shot of slowing down the great (3rd in CFB) Tenn pass game. Their pass D is 15th in the country. That will be a good matchup to watch. Tenn will still get their passing yards but not nearly as many as they normally do.
  • Tenn run game is also good (23rd) but Kentucky Rush D is good too (34th).
  • Kentucky run game will be shutdown by Tenn rush-D (6th in CFB).
So where is Tennessee's achilles heal? Their pass D. They are dead-a$$ lasts in NCAA pass D (#131) allowing 332 ypg. Kentucky's pass game is decent enough to capitalize on the Vol's secondary. Will Levis will have some impressive stats this week. If he doesn't the Wildcats will not cover.

The passing game will be fun to watch. Its the key to the game on both sides of the ball.

Almost every metric I look at is telling me take the points and cash the ticket.
 
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