LT Profits
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2023
- Messages
- 6,215
Current: Royals / Twins UNDER 8.5 -113 (Heritage)
We see sneaky value on the Under Wednesday when Pablo Lopez and the Twins host rookie Alec Marsh and the Royals.
The ERA Lies
Lopez is currently sporting a career-worst 4.24 ERA, but we see quite a few positives in his metrics pointing to imminent “good” regression, and that uptick may be in progress with Lopez allowing one run and three hits in six innings last time out.
Pablo’s fastball velocity is at a career-high 95.0 MPH and he added a new slider to his repertoire. That arsenal has generated career bests in both strikeout rate at 11.12 K/9 and swinging-strike rate at 14,5%. He also benefits by facing a Royals offense ranked dead last in baseball in wRC+ vs. right-handers at 78, or 22% below average.
Promising Rookie?
Marsh has an interesting scouting report as he has a four-pitch arsenal with good command of his three breaking pitches to go with a fastball that sat in the 94-96 MPH range at the AAA level this year while topping out at 98 MPH. He is reportedly also very cerebral, often throwing his breaking pitches early in the count and the heater when ahead.
That approach produced high rates in both strikeouts (11.30 K/9) and groundballs (47.4%) at AAA while not allowing many home runs (0.60 HR/9), a perfect profile vs. a Twins offense that relies heavily on the home run. Minnesota is eighth in the majors in homers at 113 but just slightly above average in wRC+ vs; righties at 103.
So Lopez’s positive regression and Marxh’s ability to limit homers has up betting the Under here.
I bet this play at -108 earlier this morning, one of 7 MLB Plays as of now:
We see sneaky value on the Under Wednesday when Pablo Lopez and the Twins host rookie Alec Marsh and the Royals.
The ERA Lies
Lopez is currently sporting a career-worst 4.24 ERA, but we see quite a few positives in his metrics pointing to imminent “good” regression, and that uptick may be in progress with Lopez allowing one run and three hits in six innings last time out.
Pablo’s fastball velocity is at a career-high 95.0 MPH and he added a new slider to his repertoire. That arsenal has generated career bests in both strikeout rate at 11.12 K/9 and swinging-strike rate at 14,5%. He also benefits by facing a Royals offense ranked dead last in baseball in wRC+ vs. right-handers at 78, or 22% below average.
Promising Rookie?
Marsh has an interesting scouting report as he has a four-pitch arsenal with good command of his three breaking pitches to go with a fastball that sat in the 94-96 MPH range at the AAA level this year while topping out at 98 MPH. He is reportedly also very cerebral, often throwing his breaking pitches early in the count and the heater when ahead.
That approach produced high rates in both strikeouts (11.30 K/9) and groundballs (47.4%) at AAA while not allowing many home runs (0.60 HR/9), a perfect profile vs. a Twins offense that relies heavily on the home run. Minnesota is eighth in the majors in homers at 113 but just slightly above average in wRC+ vs; righties at 103.
So Lopez’s positive regression and Marxh’s ability to limit homers has up betting the Under here.
I bet this play at -108 earlier this morning, one of 7 MLB Plays as of now:
