20. Auburn (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 23rd and 26th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 92nd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.1%
What they did in Week 3: def. Samford 45-13
Why they're ranked here: Granted, it took some major red zone miscues from Cal in Week 2 for the Tigers to even make this list, but Hugh Freeze's first Auburn team is running the ball with extreme efficiency, dominating against the pass (granted, Texas A&M's passing game Saturday will be the first good one it has faced) and winning the games it's supposed to win.
21. UCF (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 29th and 21st
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 99th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.7%
What they did in Week 3: def. Villanova 48-14
Why they're ranked here: From Gus Malzahn's former team to his current one. UCF exceeded SP+ projections by a combined 20.8 points in two home games and underachieved by 13.5 in its only road game. If the Knights can play well at Kansas State on Saturday, I'm a "sleeper Big 12 contender" believer. But not until then.
22. Kentucky (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 24th and 40th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 127th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 2.1%
What they did in Week 3: def. Akron 35-3
Why they're ranked here: Against just about the weakest schedule imaginable -- they've played FCS team Eastern Kentucky and teams ranked 118th (Ball State) and 130th (Akron) in SP+ -- the Wildcats have been ... fine. They kept the Cardinals and Zips at arm's length, but they dilly-dallied against EKU. I'm not sure we've learned a single thing about them yet.
23. Maryland (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 31st and 39th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 129th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.2%
What they did in Week 3: def. Virginia 42-14
Why they're ranked here: As with Kentucky, we've learned very little about a Maryland team that has beaten an FCS opponent (Towson) and the No. 94 (Virginia) and No. 129 (Charlotte) teams in SP+. The Terps are currently 12th in points per possession and 16th in points allowed per possession, but virtually every team ahead of them on this list would rank that well with that schedule too. There's upside here, and the Terps get Michigan State and Indiana over the next two weeks, so 5-0 is well within reach. But I'm still not sure about them.
24. Washington State (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 38th and 43rd
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 67th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.1%
What they did in Week 3: def. Northern Colorado 64-21
Why they're ranked here: The defense has allowed at least 20 points in each game, but the offense hung a combined 114 on Colorado State and Northern Colorado and managed 31 points against a stingy Wisconsin defense.
Cameron Ward is 16th in Total QBR, right ahead of Oregon's
Bo Nix and LSU's
Jayden Daniels. I don't know if the Cougars are Pac-12 contenders, but they're good.
25. Duke (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 32nd and 29th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 36th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.3%
What they did in Week 3: def. Northwestern 38-14
Why they're ranked here: Was the 28-7 win over Clemson a little fluky? Perhaps. Clemson had 12 more first downs and more scoring chances. But did the Blue Devils still win by 21 points? Yes. Have they continued to play brutally efficient offense since? Yes. The defense is bending far more than I'd like to see, but the Blue Devils are now 12-4 under Mike Elko and nearly in the SP+ top 30. It's getting harder to doubt them.
26. Colorado (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 76th and 64th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 55th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: <0.1%
What they did in Week 3: def. Colorado State 43-35 (2OT)
Why they're ranked here: Legend and reality are in conflict when it comes to Deion Sanders' Buffaloes at the moment. That they are unbeaten after three games is incredible. They upset TCU in the season opener, they rank 23rd in total offense a year after ranking 128th, and
Shedeur Sanders' ability to come through in virtually every make-or-break drive is incredible. But Sanders is getting hit far too much, the defense ranks 96th in success rate allowed and Saturday's dramatic comeback and thrilling rivalry win came against the team currently ranked 122nd in SP+.
There's a chance they keep pulling off magic acts in a magical season; there's also a chance that, with four currently unbeaten opponents over the next six games, a 3-0 start becomes about a 5-4 record in a month and a half.
27. Missouri (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 37th and 41st
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 57th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: <0.1%
What they did in Week 3: def. No. 15 Kansas State 30-27
Why they're ranked here: After games against South Dakota and Middle Tennessee State, the Tigers' offense had made fewer big plays than almost anyone in the country. That was a bad omen ... until
Brady Cook threw for 356 yards, with six completions of more than 25 yards, in a 30-27 upset of Kansas State. If
that's the offense Eliah Drinkwitz is going to pair with another solid defense moving forward, the Tigers could be on their way to a huge season. But they've got to do it twice before earning my trust.
28. Louisville (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 34th and 28th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 119th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.3%
What they did in Week 3: def. Indiana 21-14
Why they're ranked here: I've changed my mind about Louisville about 12 times in three games. The Cardinals started horribly against Georgia Tech, then rallied. They started slowly against Murray State, too, but eventually cruised. Against Indiana, they started beautifully, led 21-0 after 28 minutes ... and did almost nothing for the final 32. Their upside is matched only by their inconsistency.
29. Rutgers (3-0)
SP+ and FPI rankings: 64th and 46th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 117th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: <0.1%
What they did in Week 3: def. Virginia Tech 35-16
Why they're ranked here: Ignore everything we know about Rutgers from years past -- the eight straight losing seasons, the six bottom-20 offenses in the past seven years -- and focus only on what we've seen through three results. What you'll see from that is a team that has overachieved projections by double digits in every game. We haven't found out how good this team is yet, but it's quite possibly the school's best since the Big East days.