Ranking NFL MVP Candidates After 4 Weeks

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Ranking MVP candidates, awards picks through NFL 2023 Week 4​

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Somehow, we're already four weeks into the NFL season. For me, that means one thing: quarter-season awards. I'm always excited to encapsulate the first month and pick my favorites in six categories: Coach of the Year, Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year and league MVP.

We're only four weeks in, of course, which makes this a wonky exercise (and there are now 17 regular-season games, anyway). It's difficult for players to truly separate from the competition over four games, so there's usually way more candidates who garner real consideration for each trophy. That leads to results that will look funny in hindsight, like last season, when Devin Lloyd was my pick for Defensive Rookie of the Year after the first month of the season. Lloyd struggled afterward and was benched down the stretch in November and December. Good start to the season, though!

I end up being more vigilant about eliminating players who missed more time during the first month of the season because even a half or a full game is a significant chunk of time. Missing one game in a full season is just under 6% of the campaign. Missing one of the first four games and judging based on that four-game stretch means a player was out for 25% of the action. I'll forgive players who were sitting in the fourth quarter because they had already dominated the opposition, but it's tough to miss a game because of an injury and still take home hardware here.


These awards are strictly for what a player has accomplished over the first four games. I might mention what they did last season -- or discuss what they need to do to win the award at the end of the season when the actual voting takes place -- but I'm considering how a player performed over only the past month in evaluating who should win here.

I'll begin with our lone coaching award before working through the players:

 

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Coach of the Year​

This was a much tougher award to hand out than it seemed at first glance. I put together a short list and had a quarter of the league's coaches seemingly deserving consideration. The template for responses to this column starts with "What about" or "Forgot about"; I'll get a lot of these here. Dan Campbell? Nick Sirianni? Sean McDermott? John Harbaugh? There are too many doing impressive work.

I narrowed my list down to three and found there was a common thread: As recently as two years ago, they were all on the same staff.

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3. DeMeco Ryans, Texans​

I believe there were people who expected the Texans to win two games all season. Instead, Ryans, in his first season as a head coach, has them at 2-2 after the first month, with two wins over teams that had winning records last season. In the four-way tie at 2-2 in the AFC South, Houston has the best point differential (plus-17) in the division.

We'll talk about rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud later, but Ryans has almost immediately turned around this defense, which ranks 15th in DVOA through four games. If anything, the Texans have been a little unlucky with timing, given that they rank 27th in third-down conversion rate on that side of the football. They have pulled that off, while the three best starters in the secondary -- Derek Stingley, Jalen Pitre and Jimmie Ward -- have missed two games each.

There's still a lot of work to be done in Houston, and some rebuilding teams get off to a hot start and quickly fade. (Think about the 2022 Bears, who began 2-1 and then have gone 1-17 since.) With Stroud playing well and the Texans likely to get healthier as offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil and others return to the lineup, chances are they should get better as the season goes along, not worse.

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2. Mike McDaniel, Dolphins​

You've watched the offense, right? Even with a bit of a chastening in the Week 4 blowout loss to the Bills, McDaniel's offense is still the biggest on-field story of the season. (There's no award in this column for "Most Eligible Tight End," sorry.) The Dolphins comfortably lead the league in just about every offensive category, and after seeing them respond to their late-season slide from 2022 with a rejuvenated attack during the first month, I don't think they're about to fade.

McDaniel's ability to make his offensive stars sparkle is truly special. Consider what happened to Tyreek Hill during his final season with the Chiefs in 2021. With teams terrified of Hill and Patrick Mahomes and taking away the deep ball, Hill spent most of that season catching quick hitches and running after the catch. Now, with a less imposing quarterback, Hill is more of a devastating downfield threat than he has ever been. Running back De'Von Achane's immediate ascension from rookie third-round pick into a big-play threat looms ominously for Miami's opponents.

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1. Kyle Shanahan, 49ers​

The second-best offense in the league belongs to San Francisco, which has quietly started the season with four 30-plus point games. That has happened just 17 times in league history. The first team to do it was the 1948 49ers; through all those great offenses in the 1980s and 1990s, the Niners never managed to start their season with four straight 30-pointers before this season.

Of course, that Shanahan is doing it with an inexperienced seventh-round pick has almost been collectively internalized by now. This isn't normal! Brock Purdy has returned from his right elbow injury and looked again like a seasoned veteran. Buoyed by Christian McCaffrey and the offense, San Francisco has trailed for a total of 105 seconds so far. The competition hasn't been as tough as the Cowboys team the 49ers will face in Week 5, but great teams blow out mediocre opponents.

What puts Shanahan over the top is how well his team is doing, even after losing so many coaches and front office executives over the past two seasons. In addition to losing the other two coaches in this top three, he lost another offensive voice this season when Ryans brought Bobby Slowik to Houston to serve as his offensive coordinator. Even with those coaches excelling elsewhere, the 49ers haven't skipped a beat.

 

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Defensive Rookie of the Year​

Here we go again. How can I not have Seahawks corner Devon Witherspoon in my top three after what he did against the Giants? Witherspoon was wildly impressive in his "Monday Night Football" debut, serving as a physical force around the line of scrimmage before producing a pick-12 from his own goal line. That was also comfortably his best game so far, though.

If Witherspoon had played in Week 1, he'd be in the top three. I would be surprised if he isn't there when we hit our midseason awards, but he misses out for now. As do promising players, including Steelers defensive tackle Keeanu Benton, Texans edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. and Vikings linebacker Ivan Pace, who has been one of the few bright spots for the Vikings during their 1-3 start.

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3. Brian Branch, DB, Lions​

Pick: No. 45

Like Witherspoon, Branch managed a pick-six in his debut on national television, taking Chiefs wideout Kadarius Toney's drop to the house for a 50-yard score and swinging Week 1 back toward the Lions. He has had to come out in and out of games for stretches with minor ailments, but his range and physicality have made an immediate impact in the Detroit secondary. In a small sample (38 dropbacks), the Lions have the equivalent of the league's seventh-best QBR with Branch on the field before dropping all the way to No. 32 when he has been on the sidelines.

The second-rounder is nominally a strong safety, but opponents targeting him in coverage have generated minus-7.8 expected points added (EPA), which is the second-best mark among rookies (Witherspoon is first). His ability to hold up out of the slot will be even more important for the Lions as they play without C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who is out indefinitely because of a torn pectoral muscle.

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2. Jalen Carter, DT, Eagles​

Pick: No. 9

Replacing Javon Hargrave wasn't supposed to be this easy. When Carter dropped to the the ninth pick, the Eagles were happy to trade up and pounce. He has fit right in with the league's deepest pass rush. He already has 1.5 sacks and two forced fumbles through four games while looking like an immediately disruptive force at tackle for new defensive coordinator Sean Desai.

Carter has generated a pressure once every 9.1 pass rush opportunities so far. Among players who line up primarily on the interior of the defensive line, that's the sixth-best rate. The guys ahead of him make for some lofty company: Aaron Donald, Chris Jones, Devonte Wyatt, DaQuan Jones and David Onyemata.

1. Christian Gonzalez, CB, Patriots​

Pick: No. 17

It's a shame Gonzalez will likely fall off this list at midseason after he dislocated his right shoulder in Sunday's loss to the Cowboys. He had been an immediate star before his injury, and the Patriots' defense sorely missed him after he was sidelined.

Most rookie cornerbacks struggle. Others are hid as much as possible. Gonzalez wasn't one-on-one in man coverage against top receivers like peak Darrelle Revis was, but it's telling that Bill Belichick had no qualms about using Gonzalez as the primary cornerback against the opposing team's top wide receiver each week this season.

It went pretty well! A.J. Brown had 79 receiving yards in Week 1 and has averaged 138 yards per game since. Tyreek Hill had a 40-yard game against the Pats and has otherwise racked up 143 receiving yards per contest. And while Garrett Wilson has been hindered by Zach Wilson, the Jets star had 48 receiving yards against the Patriots and 59 yards per game elsewhere. Gonzalez hasn't been shadowing them on every single play, but it's incredible to see a rookie cornerback hold his own against the best wideouts.

 

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Offensive Rookie of the Year​

There is a clear top three here, and it doesn't include the guy who had a 203-yard game in his second NFL appearance. Miami running back De'Von Achane has six touchdowns in his past two games and has been a revelation for the Dolphins, but there's impossibly stiff competition for this category.

Lions tight end Sam LaPorta, Ravens wideout Zay Flowers and Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson would be candidates to win this award in some seasons; here, they're not even close to being considered. This has been a special start for the offensive class of 2023, and it's going to be a fun battle to watch as the season progresses.

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3. Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons​

Pick: No. 8

As another sign of how ridiculous the top three have been, Robinson has lived up to pre-draft and preseason expectations and still comes in third. Through four games, he has been the focal point of the Atlanta offense. He has run for a team-high 318 yards and is second on the team in receiving yards with 134, trailing -- serenity now -- blocking tight end Jonnu Smith (179).

It's hard to be bad while averaging 6.0 yards per carry, but advanced metrics love Robinson even more than the traditional ones. He ranks second in the NFL in rush yards over expectation (RYOE) behind Achane and already has four first dow

s over expectation. He's also proving to be efficient; his 47.2% success rate ranks fifth among backs with at least 40 carries

A running back with Robinson's ability to stay on schedule and his sort of elite explosiveness and ankle-breaking agility in tight quarters? So far, so good.

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2. C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans​

Pick: No. 2

Stroud already looks like a far more experienced quarterback for the surprising Texans. Their three former first-round picks up front (Laremy Tunsil, Kenyon Green and Tytus Howard) have combined to make just one appearance out of 12 possible starts so far, but you wouldn't know it from watching Stroud.

It's a shame, too, because Stroud would be even more impressive with better offensive line play. He ranks third in the NFL with an 81.5 QBR while unpressured. He's averaging nearly 10 yards per attempt in those situations, and we're seeing him consistently make smart decisions with the football. He doesn't go deep often, but his 99.8 QBR on nine attempts is the second-best mark in the league. He has hit Tank Dell and Nico Collins on beautiful throws for long scores in each of the past two games.

Pressure has been Stroud's weakness. He ranks 29th in QBR when pressured, which is no surprise for a young quarterback; Desmond Ridder and Sam Howell are 25th and 26th, respectively, while Bryce Young is 30th. Stroud one-hopping a throw under duress to an open Andrew Beck in the flat on fourth down in Week 4 stands out in my mind, but those plays are going to get better as he grows more comfortable. When those starting offensive linemen get back into the lineup, he should be even better.

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1. Puka Nacua, WR, Rams​

Pick: No. 177

A rookie quarterback playing league-average football is almost always going to be Offensive Rookie of the Year for the first quarter of the season. Stroud ranks second here because what Nacua has done might not have many parallels in recent history. We've seen receivers put together spectacular starts to their careers, but it has usually been from first-round picks such as Justin Jefferson (2020) and Randy Moss (1998). Anquan Boldin immediately emerged as a special talent -- he had 464 yards in his first four games in 2003 -- but he was a second-round pick.

Fifth-round picks like Nacua are more likely to be cut than start in Week 1. Thirteen fifth-round picks in NFL history finished their rookie season with more than 500 receiving yards. Nacua has 501 receiving yards in his first four games. While acknowledging that we play in an era with inflated receiving statistics, no wideout -- not Jefferson, not Moss, not anybody else -- has managed to hit 500 yards in their first four games.

Let's compare him to the most obvious counterpart. What Nacua has done through the first four games is remarkably similar in terms of efficiency metrics to what Cooper Kupp did for the Rams during the first four games of the 2021 season:

Kupp won the receiving triple crown that season (catches, yards and touchdowns) and was the second-best player on a team that won the Super Bowl. Nacua hasn't scored as many touchdowns, but he has otherwise been as productive as one of the best receiver seasons in NFL history through four games.

When Kupp originally went down before the season with his hamstring injury, it seemed like the Rams would be hopeless on offense. Now, with Kupp set to return, it seems like they have one of the league's best one-two punches at wide receiver. Nacua has emerged as a superstar overnight.

 

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Defensive Player of the Year​

This has basically become the "Best Pass-Rusher" award in recent years, as 11 of the past 12 winners are players who get after the quarterback. I usually want to find players who don't do that to mention in this space because it's more fun to congratulate greatness in all the ways defenders can be great, but the top pass-rushers are just too dominant this season.

Matt Milano has been incredible at linebacker for the Bills, and safety Jessie Bates is all over the place as a playmaker and tackler for the Falcons, but if you were starting a defense and going solely off what you saw from the first month of the season, your first seven or eight picks might be defensive linemen. That's with reigning Best Pass-Rusher Alive championship belt holder Nick Bosa getting off to a slow start (one sack) for the 49ers after his summer holdout.

The last cut here was Aidan Hutchinson, who has leveled up for the Lions and has been a consistent pocket-wrecker from the edge for Detroit. He doesn't have a great pass rush win rate by ESPN's measures, but he ranks second in quarterback pressures, which hints toward how he has been able to keep himself in plays and eventually impact the quarterback, even when he doesn't win immediately at the line.

You could rank Hutchinson and the three guys below in just about any order from Nos. 1 to 4 through four games, and I wouldn't be able to protest. The margins here are impossibly fine.

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3. Myles Garrett, DE, Browns​

Garrett might be this season's most dominant pass-rusher when he's at his best. He has inspired two of the best All-22 clips from the first month of the season: The video of him ominously dribbling before the snap while lining up as a spinner before beating Bengals center Ted Karras and the clip of the Titans moving two blockers around in motion with him in a desperate attempt to try to stop him before the snap, only for Garrett to keep moving and force Tennessee into a timeout.

There are a few metrics I'm going to lean on to help me make these choices. Garrett leads the league in one of them: sacks created, both for himself and for other Browns. He has created six, which nobody else has matched. He's tied with T.J. Watt for the league lead in quarterback knockdowns (13) and third behind the trio of Watt, Khalil Mack and Josh Allen with 5.5 sacks.

Garrett has been the best player on a Browns defense that looks like a top-five unit under new coordinator Jim Schwartz.

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2. T.J. Watt, OLB, Steelers​

Even amid a frustrating 2-2 start to the season for the Steelers, Watt continues to play at a superstar level. As mentioned above, he is tied for the league lead in both sacks and quarterback knockdowns. Pittsburgh might very well be 0-4 without him; Watt's fumble return for a score was the game winner against the Browns in Week 2, while he had two sacks and a staggering 11 initial pressures in the Week 3 victory over the Raiders. The latter figure is tied with three other players for the season high in any single game, including Khalil Mack's six-sack performance against Vegas last Sunday.

By some measures, Watt has been the league's most productive pass-rusher. He would be a reasonable pick for this award. The more I looked into the data, though, the case became even clearer for the guy just ahead of him.

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1. Micah Parsons, OLB, Cowboys​

By the most common measures, Parsons is not the NFL's No. 1 pass-rusher. He has four sacks and eight knockdowns, which is impressive, but Watt and Garrett are ahead of him in both categories. Parsons also sat out the entire fourth quarter of the Week 1 blowout win over the Giants as either an acknowledgment of the dismal weather conditions and game situation or as a noble peace offering to quarterback Daniel Jones.

Parsons instead leads the NFL in a number of other categories. He's No. 1 in initial pressures (29) despite rushing the quarterback only 91 times. That results in a ridiculous pressure rate of nearly 32%. Watt is at 19.3% so far, while Garrett is at 20.4%. Second in the NFL, actually, is Texans rookie Will Anderson Jr. at just over 29%.

ESPN's pass rush win rate also ranks Parsons atop the leaderboard, suggesting he's winning more battles at the line of scrimmage than any other edge rusher. He has accomplished that while being double-teamed on nearly 37% of his rushes. The only other edge rusher who has been double-teamed more than 30% of the time, by this data, is Nick Bosa. Parsons has been double-teamed nearly three times as often as Watt, who has been double-teamed just under 13% of the time.

He has ruined the lives of opposing quarterbacks without even taking them down. He has forced 14 incompletions and three interceptions with pressures this season. Both figures lead the league. Again: You could pick Parsons, Watt, Garrett or Hutchinson, and I wouldn't blink. In terms of the most devastating defender in the league, though, Parsons is the choice.

 

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Offensive Player of the Year​

The NFL has evolved in such a way that the Offensive Player of the Year award doesn't make any sense. No defensive player has won MVP since Lawrence Taylor in 1986, and unless someone challenges the 30-sack barrier, it won't happen again anytime soon. The MVP award almost always goes to a quarterback, who is quite obviously an offensive player. Occasionally, the league gives the Most Valuable Player award to a quarterback and Offensive Player of the Year to a running back or receiver, as was the case when Justin Jefferson won OPOY last season. That makes no sense.

When I do these columns every year, I just codify the difference. MVP is for quarterbacks unless someone else plays at a truly transcendent level. Offensive Player of the Year is for the best running back, wide receiver, tight end or offensive lineman. Of course, it's virtually impossible to imagine a scenario in which an individual offensive lineman garners traditional award votes, but then again, a kicker won the MVP award in 1982. Anything is possible.

In terms of what we've seen in 2023, this was generally one of the easier awards to sift through. There's one obvious running back candidate and three wide receivers for two spots. The wideout who just came up short was Jefferson, who leads the league in receiving yards (543) and looks unstoppable most weeks. The only knock on his record is the fumble he lost near the goal line against the Eagles, which resulted in a 10-point swing that probably cost Minnesota any chance of upsetting the reigning NFC champs.

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3. Puka Nacua, WR, Rams​

Puka Nacua! Seriously, he's off to an unbelievable start.

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2. Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins​

Hill averaged 3.33 yards per route run in 2022, which is nearly unprecedented over a full season. Going back through 2007, the only player to average more yards per route run in a single season was Steve Smith, who was at a whopping 3.88 yards per route run for the 2008 Panthers. Like a running back averaging 6.0 yards per carry over a full season, it's tough for players to sustain that sort of efficiency, so it seemed likely Hill would take a small step backward.

Instead, Hill has taken ... another big step forward. He's averaging 4.16 yards per route run, which is actually the second-best mark in the NFL. No. 1 is San Francisco's Brandon Aiyuk, whose 4.85 yards per route run is the best mark we've seen for any first month since 2007, topping a guy who had a pretty memorable campaign that season in Randy Moss. The difference between Hill and Aiyuk is that the 49ers standout has missed a game and run just 66 routes all season. Hill is up to 113, and that number would be even higher if the Dolphins hadn't lifted him from that 70-20 blowout of the Broncos.

Most downfield threats can be efficient on a per-target basis, but they don't see the ball often enough to attract huge volume and be as spectacular on a per-route basis. Hill has been targeted on more than 35% of his routes, which means he gets the ball about as often as Davante Adams or Travis Kelce. What he can do with the ball in his hands, of course, is one of one.

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1. Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers​

The McCaffrey renaissance is too much to deny for the top spot. After missing the better part of two seasons because of injuries and getting off to a decent start with the Panthers last season, he joined the 49ers last October and has become the focal point of the league's most consistently dominant offense.

McCaffrey leads the NFL in rushes with 80, but he's still averaging 5.7 yards per attempt. He ranks third in rush yards over expectation (RYOE), has generated eight more first downs than anyone else and leads the league in touchdowns (seven). He's doing this in an offense in which backups Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason have averaged 3.3 yards per carry. Coach Kyle Shanahan makes life easier for his running backs, but McCaffrey is doing much more than profiting from a great scheme and playcaller.

And, of course, there's what McCaffrey adds as a receiver. He hasn't been as spectacularly efficient as his Carolina days, but he has 18 catches for 141 yards. He's averaging 1.72 yards per route run. He has basically been as productive in the passing game as George Kittle and has also been the best running back in football. No other non-quarterback can match his ability to drive offense in multiple ways.

If we're going to play the projection game, McCaffrey is on pace for 1,950 rushing yards, 599 receiving yards and 30 touchdowns from scrimmage. If he keeps that up and challenges the 2,000-rushing yard barrier, he will have to be in the MVP discussion. He's playing the same way LaDainian Tomlinson did when the Chargers legend won MVP in 2006.

 

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Most Valuable Player​

McCaffrey is not in the MVP discussion here for reasons you'll read about in a moment. While the less notable awards have plenty of candidates, MVP is one in which the top of the field is settled right now. There's a top tier with McCaffrey and maybe five quarterback candidates. The top two candidates from 2022, Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, haven't hit those same lofty heights, and others have managed to top them this season.

The difficult thing in gauging the quarterback class is there really has been only one quarterback who has had a great game in all four weeks. The other top candidates have each had one game that was either disappointing and/or damaging to their team's chances of winning.

One of those sorts of games keeps the current betting favorite out of the top three. Buffalo's Josh Allen has been the league's best quarterback over the past three weeks, leading the NFL in QBR while throwing for 812 yards with seven touchdowns. Crucially, he has only had one interception over that span. Still, I can't throw away what Allen did against the Jets, when he turned the ball over four times and kept Zach Wilson & Co. in the contest long enough for their special teams to score in overtime. One awful game out of 17 isn't a big deal, and if Allen continues to excel, the rough debut will fade away. One in four, though, is a different story.

Lamar Jackson also comes up just short. The Ravens quarterback has looked great at times during his team's 3-1 start, which has come without key players such as left tackle Ronnie Stanley, wideout Odell Beckham Jr., running back J.K. Dobbins and tight end Mark Andrews on the field for stretches of time. He is completing a whopping 74.3% of his passes, up nearly 11 points from his career average, while still maintaining an above-average 7.6 yards per pass attempt.

Jackson also has fumbled a league-high six times, which isn't great. Quarterbacks can get the blame for fumbles that come on bad snaps, but five of his six have come on strip sacks or scrambles. While Miami's Tua Tagovailoa has five fumbles, as an example, four of them have been on bad snaps.

Jackson, the unanimous league MVP in 2019, is still contributing as a runner, with a 101-yard game against the Colts and four touchdowns over the past two games, but he has just 23 rush yards over expectation (RYOE) on 41 carries. Even as recently as last season, his 292 RYOE was the second-best mark in the NFL and came on a mere 112 attempts. He has made exciting strides as a passer and is definitely an MVP candidate, but the three players ahead of him have been more dominant at their best.

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3. Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers​

Just ignore what happens on fourth-and-short. Playing without running back Austin Ekeler for most of the first month and center Corey Linsley and wideout Mike Williams during Sunday's win over the Raiders, Herbert has continued to produce.

Herbert has just one turnover in four games, an interception in the third quarter against Vegas. He has fumbled once. He ranks second in completion percentage over expected (CPOE) behind Allen while throwing more than 15% of his passes 20 or more yards downfield, which is the second-highest rate behind Tennessee's Ryan Tannehill. He also has scored three rushing touchdowns, including two sneaks and a 12-yard scramble in Week 4.

Herbert has been a one-man wrecking crew in the red zone. His 95.3 QBR there is the third-best mark in football among quarterbacks who have started all four games. Inside the 20, he is 14-of-22 for 73 yards with six passing touchdowns and no picks. Add in those three rushing scores and I'm not sure anybody has been more ruthless in scoring range.

Herbert is throwing deeper more often, as expected after the arrival of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, but that's probably the area where he can still stand to improve if he wants to win MVP. His 86.4 QBR on passes traveling 20 yards or more in the air ranks 16th. He has attempted more deep throws than anybody else, but he has completed 39.1% of those passes. His 5% CPOE on those passes ranks 19th.

We know Herbert can be a devastating downfield passer, but if he can pull that off without Williams -- who's out for the season after tearing the ACL in his left knee -- that might be the last barrier remaining for Herbert as a passer. The other big roadblock is the guy in Kansas City. Mahomes might not win MVP this season, but the award winner in real life almost always comes from a division winner. The last time a league MVP didn't finish the season with his team in first place was 2012, when Adrian Peterson carried the Vikings to the wild-card round. If the Chargers can somehow topple the Chiefs, Herbert might have his best shot of taking home hardware.

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2. Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers​

I don't think it's possible to have McCaffrey and Purdy in the top three for MVP balloting, but one of them has to be in the mix given how consistent and dominant the 49ers have been on offense. I've already made the argument for McCaffrey as Offensive Player of the Year and would have no qualms about anybody picking him as the best MVP candidate on the roster as well.

What I keep coming back to with Purdy, though, is how much of our opinion has been formed by how he entered the league. Since Purdy was Mr. Irrelevant and the third choice for the 49ers at quarterback, it's easy to write him off as a product of his surroundings, a passer blessed to fall into a lineup with McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams, and to throw for the league's best playcaller in Kyle Shanahan. And obviously, there's nobody arguing against the idea Purdy is in a great situation.

Purdy has now started 12 games between the regular season and postseason, though. One of them ended when his right elbow exploded. The other 11 have been 49ers wins. Jimmy Garoppolo & Co. weren't winning 100% of the time. Purdy's numbers are superior to what Garoppolo was doing in San Francisco. He has outplayed Trey Lance, Nick Mullens, C.J. Beathard and all of the other various quarterbacks the Niners have had in the Shanahan era. And while they didn't have McCaffrey, Josh Johnson did play in the NFC Championship Game, and he wasn't able to recreate what Purdy has done or come close.

The scary thing for people doubting Purdy is he has taken a significant leap forward through four games this season. His completion percentage (72.3%) has jumped five points. He's averaging a full yard more per throw (9.1). His success rate as a passer is up from 50% to 57.1%. After throwing for first downs on just under 39% of his attempts last season, he is north of 48% this season, which is the best mark in football. He also has yet to throw an interception this season, one of just three four-game starters to avoid throwing a pick alongside C.J. Stroud and Joshua Dobbs.

Purdy has gotten away with a couple of dropped picks, and he has fumbled four times, losing one. Interceptions are inevitably going to start popping up. The only real hole you can poke in his performance, relative to other quarterbacks, is he just hasn't needed to throw often. He's averaging 28 pass attempts per game, while Herbert's up at 36.3 and our No. 1 passer is at 34.

Given that Purdy is leading the league in QBR and adjusted yards per attempt and has had the 49ers in position for double-digit leads in the fourth quarter of each of their first four games, should we be blaming him for killing off games before the final few drives? He's tied for 32nd in passes thrown in the fourth quarter because the job has been done, not because the 49ers don't want him to throw. Even with some sort of Shanahan/McCaffrey discount, Purdy has been one of the league's best quarterbacks.

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1. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins​

Tagovailoa's worst game was his most recent, so there will probably be some recency bias arguing against him being the best player in football. I don't think it's a clear and obvious choice after that game against the Bills, but the heights Tagovailoa hit over his first three games more than overcome a middling performance against a great defense.

Even with the Bills game included, Tagovailoa is averaging 8.9 yards per dropback. Purdy is the only other quarterback above 7.4, and he's still a full half-yard short of Tagovailoa. Going back through 2007, that's the 13th-best mark through the first four weeks of a season. Just ahead of Tagovailoa are two of the three best passing seasons of this century: Tom Brady in 2007 and Peyton Manning in 2013.

In concert with the speed Tagovailoa has at receiver, he has been able to process and deliver accurate passes faster than anybody else. His average pass attempt thrown under 2.5 seconds gains 8.8 yards. The league average on those throws is 6.0 yards per pass, and no other signal-caller is averaging even 8.0 yards per throw.

Purdy and Tagovailoa also stand ahead of the pack when it comes to Pro Football Reference's version of success rate. According to PFR, Tagovailoa's 58.2% success rate on dropbacks is the best in football. Purdy ranks second at 57.1%, and Allen's way back in third at 53.5%. The Bills standout is closer to Mahomes in 11th place than he is to Tagovailoa in first.

Are there holes you can poke in Tagovailoa's MVP case? Sure. He has thrown three interceptions, which is more than you typically expect from the league MVP in four games. He has been middling on deep passes, as his 40.5 QBR there ranks 27th. Of course, in the 11- to 20-yard range, he has thrown for a league-high 492 yards, posted a 14.4% CPOE and averaged 13.3 yards per attempt. While seeing the Tagovailoa who torched teams downfield in 2022 and led the league in deep QBR would be a pleasant return, it isn't as if he is getting by on screens, either.

In a season without a perfect candidate, Tagovailoa is the best choice through four weeks. Compared to someone like Allen, his highs have been higher and his lows haven't been as low. He has been more spectacular than Herbert and been more essential to his team than Purdy. What I said about Herbert and Mahomes, though, also applies to Tagovailoa and Allen. The MVP probably needs to win its division to claim the real award at the end of the season, and Tagovailoa already is down the tiebreaker to Allen and the Bills. When Buffalo makes its visit to Miami in Week 18, that game might end up deciding both the AFC East and the MVP race.