Ranking College Football's Remaining Unbeaten Teams

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Ranking the 14 remaining undefeated college football teams​

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We were supposed to lose six to seven college football unbeatens in Week 6. Instead, we lost eight. Kentucky and Maryland got handled by much better teams (Georgia and Ohio State, respectively). Texas fell to Oklahoma in a "someone awesome has to lose" game. Miami couldn't bear the thought of remaining unbeaten and boldly did something about it.

Missouri couldn't hold on to three separate second-half leads and lost to Jayden Daniels and LSU. Fresno State got Laramied, falling late at Wyoming like Texas Tech and Appalachian State did. Washington State gave up the last 13 points at UCLA. Marshall couldn't quite keep up in an unexpected track meet at NC State. We almost lost USC as well, but the misfiring Trojans survived Arizona in overtime.

Granted, most of the teams that lost were in the bottom half of last week's unbeaten rankings. Aside from Texas, most of the top teams survived. So on we go, with 14 remaining. Only one of them has Week 7 off (Oklahoma), and eight are playing in games with under 75% win probability according to SP+, which projects an average of 3.6 losses among the group. This list could end up in the single digits next week pretty easily, so let's celebrate the Fantastic 14 while we can. Time to rank the unbeatens.

 

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14.

Liberty Flames (5-0)​

Last week's ranking: 20

SP+ and FPI rankings: 72nd and 68th

Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 11.8%

What they did in Week 6: defeated Sam Houston 21-16

Next big test (next game with SP+ win probability at 75% or lower): Week 7 at Jacksonville State

Why the Flames aren't ranked higher: Against the best defense it has faced to date (Sam Houston), Jamey Chadwell's Liberty offense slowed a bit. The Flames still made some early big plays and averaged 7.2 yards per play, but they went scoreless over their final six drives and nearly let the winless Bearkats steal an upset before a late goal-line stand.

They survived, and they remain overwhelming favorites to win Conference USA, but each of Liberty's next five opponents ranks higher than Sam Houston, including this week's road opponent, Jacksonville State. This is pretty clearly going to end up an awesome season for Chadwell & Co., and the schedule is far from difficult, but reaching 12-0 is going to require a much higher level of play than what we just saw.

 

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13.

James Madison Dukes (5-0)​

Last week's ranking: 21

SP+ and FPI rankings: 55th and 74th

Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 5.7%

What they did in Week 6: idle

Next big test: Week 7 vs. Georgia Southern

Why the Dukes aren't ranked lower: James Madison is the class of the Sun Belt this season. Only Troy ranks higher among Sun Belt teams in SP+, and the Dukes already beat the Trojans on the road. If not for arcane eligibility rules -- they are in only their second FBS season, and they're therefore not eligible for the conference title or a bowl bid -- the Dukes would be clear title favorites.

Their defense is outstanding: The Dukes throw you behind schedule with an unforgiving run defense (second in rushing success rate allowed, ninth in stuff rate), then they pressure the heck out of your quarterback (ninth in pressure rate, sixth in sacks per dropback).

Why they aren't ranked higher: The offense has been inconsistent. JMU gets enough big plays out of the passing game to survive, but the Dukes rank just 103rd in rushing success rate and 121st in stuff rate allowed. With that, they face pretty long third downs and stall out frequently (103rd in three-and-out percentage). That will probably backfire at some point.

 

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12.

Air Force Falcons (5-0)​

Last week's ranking: 18

SP+ and FPI rankings: 36th and 48th

Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 17.4%

What they did in Week 6: idle

Next big test: Week 7 vs. Wyoming

Why the Falcons aren't ranked lower: The Falcons are playing a particularly good vintage of Air Force football. They are 11th in rushing success rate while running more frequently than anyone else, and a couple of times per game, quarterback Zac Larrier will torch you with a deep ball. He's averaging 29.3 yards per completion.

Throw in a defense that prevents all big plays while still forcing three-and-outs (39% of drives, 21st nationally), and you've got the favorite to win the G5's New Year's Six bowl bid. Let me tell you right now: No one wants to draw Air Force in the Fiesta Bowl.

Why they aren't ranked higher: The Falcons also have the weaknesses that come with the general service academy-style option attack: a lack of explosiveness and an offense that isn't designed to come from behind. Granted, they're almost never behind -- they've run 15 plays while behind in the second half this year, the fourth fewest -- but the passing game works only when no one expects it, and options are limited if they're down a couple of scores and have to hit the gas.

 

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11.

Louisville Cardinals (6-0)​

Last week's ranking: 15

SP+ and FPI rankings: 20th and 21st

Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 11.8%

What they did in Week 6: defeated Notre Dame 33-20

Next big test: Week 7 at Pittsburgh

Why the Cardinals aren't ranked lower: Louisville might be the best home team in the country. Jeff Brohm's Cardinals have exceeded SP+ projections by an average of 15.1 points per game at home, and their big-play arsenal is nearly unmatched. The Cardinals have one running back (Jawhar Jordan) and at least four different receivers (Jamari Thrash, Ahmari Huggins-Bruce, Kevin Coleman, Chris Bell) who can take any ball to the house at any moment. Just ask Notre Dame, which brilliantly limited Louisville's passing, only to get destroyed by Jordan (21 carries for 143 yards and two touchdowns) instead.

Why they aren't ranked higher: Remaining unbeaten requires showing up on the road, and the big plays haven't really traveled yet. In three games outside of Louisville, the Cardinals have underachieved projections by an average of 8.0 points per game. They beat Georgia Tech, Indiana and NC State (average SP+ ranking between them: 70.7) by a mere 15 combined points. Granted, somehow only two road games remain on the schedule, but one is against Miami, and the ACC championship is in Charlotte.

 

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10.

North Carolina Tar Heels (5-0)​

Last week's ranking: 13

SP+ and FPI rankings: 18th and 16th

Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 5.4%

What they did in Week 6: defeated Syracuse 40-7

Next big test: Week 7 vs. Miami

Why the Tar Heels aren't ranked lower: They've exceeded projections in four of five games, and while Syracuse is increasingly banged up and offensively hopeless, they destroyed the Orange 40-7 on Saturday. They're getting better and more confident by the game, and if they can get past an embarrassed Miami in Chapel Hill on Saturday, they'll likely cruise to 9-0 at the least. Drake Maye is throwing less but on pace for more passing yards than he had last year. Even the defense is sort of showing up: After averaging a 73.7 defensive SP+ ranking over the past three seasons, the Heels are currently 42nd.

Why they aren't ranked higher: It's still very difficult to trust this defense, and not only because of recent history. The Heels rank 84th in rushing success rate allowed, and when they allow a completion, it's a significant one: 56% of completions go for first downs (105th), and 19% go for 20-plus yards (92nd). The defense could keep them unbeaten for a while longer, but this isn't a national title contender.

 

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9.

USC Trojans (6-0)​

Last week's ranking: 10

SP+ and FPI rankings: ninth and 13th

Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 3.2%

What they did in Week 6: defeated Arizona 43-41 in triple overtime

Next big test: Week 7 at Notre Dame

Why the Trojans aren't ranked lower: They still have the most reliably elite offense in the country. Even after playing particularly sloppy ball in an overtime win over Arizona, they still rank first in offensive SP+, fifth in points per drive, fifth in success rate, third in red zone touchdown rate, eighth in three-and-out rate and so on. Caleb Williams is still Caleb Williams, the run game is humming, and Williams has about nine different guys to which he can spread the ball. And the defense ... well, it isn't worse than last year's, and the Trojans did win 11 games last year!

Why they aren't ranked higher: The defense isn't much better than last year's either. In the preseason, I set the bar for the Trojans at 40th in defensive SP+ -- clear that, and you're a national title contender. They're currently 61st. The pass defense is aggressive but glitchy, and they're 114th in rushing success rate allowed and remain one of the worst tackling teams in the power conferences. Williams & Co. mean their ceiling remains high, but improvement isn't coming quickly enough on defense.

 

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8.

Florida State Seminoles (5-0)​

Last week's ranking: 9

SP+ and FPI rankings: 15th and 10th

Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 9.0%

What they did in Week 6: defeated Virginia Tech 39-17

Next big test: Week 8 vs. Duke

Why the Seminoles aren't ranked lower: The Noles respond when pushed. They trailed LSU 17-14 and went on a 31-0 run. They faced a surprising late challenge from Boston College but forced a punt with two sacks and ran out the clock. They trailed Clemson by 10 on the road and finished the game on a 24-7 run. They found themselves up only five on Virginia Tech early in the third quarter but scored in 28 seconds and ended the game on a 17-0 run.

They're creating more adversity than they need at times, but this team is playing like one that knows it's a title contender.

Why they aren't ranked higher: See: self-created adversity. They saw a 21-point lead turn to two points against BC and a 22-point lead turn to five against Tech. The running game carried them Saturday, but they're still 123rd in rushing success rate. On defense, they're giving up a few too many big plays. The Noles trust themselves to come through, but there's a reason the numbers like them but don't like like them.

 

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7.

Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0)​

Last week's ranking: 8

SP+ and FPI rankings: 10th and seventh

Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 5.4%

What they did in Week 6: idle

Next big test: Week 8 at Ohio State

Why the Nittany Lions aren't ranked lower: The PSU defense is even nastier than expected -- it's first in yards allowed per drive and third in points per drive, success rate allowed and overall defensive SP+. The Nittany Lions have the best pass defense in the country (first in success rate allowed, first in raw QBR allowed, first in pressure rate), and the offense ranks 14th in points per drive despite the distinct feeling that it's holding back a bit.

James Franklin's squad hasn't played an SP+ top-40 opponent yet, but it has played two top-50s (WVU and Iowa) and beat them by a combined 69-15. The next team to stay within 17 points of Penn State will be the first.

Why they aren't ranked higher: It's all about what we don't know. Offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich has played it safe with young QB Drew Allar, and Allar has played nearly mistake-free ball, but he's also averaging just 10.7 yards per completion, and PSU has just one gain of 40-plus yards, fewest in FBS. You'll need some chunk plays against Michigan and Ohio State, and we have no idea if Allar and PSU can provide them.

 

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6.

Oklahoma Sooners (6-0)​

Last week's ranking: 7

SP+ and FPI rankings: eighth and second

Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 24.1%

What they did in Week 6: defeated Texas 34-30

Next big test: Week 9 at Kansas

Why the Sooners aren't ranked lower: The numbers loved OU long before Saturday. FPI has had the Sooners ranked second since Week 3, and SP+ has at least had them ranked in the single digits since Week 2. There was plenty to like, but they hadn't faced a marquee opponent yet. They checked that box with a 34-30 win over Texas on Saturday in Dallas. Now they've got the stats and the résumé.
OU is sixth in points per drive and eighth in points allowed per drive, Dillon Gabriel is third in Total QBR and firmly in "Darkhorse Heisman candidate?" mode, and the Sooners' red zone defense remains just about the best in the country -- Texas finished seven drives inside the OU 30 and scored two touchdowns. There's a lot to like here, and the schedule doesn't feature too many more obvious obstacles.

Why they aren't ranked higher: While the Sooners' offense has generated 33 gains of 20-plus yards (25th nationally), the defense has allowed 27 (88th). The Sooners are dominating from an efficiency standpoint, but losing the big-play battle can lead to a fluky result at some point. (And you can't utilize a great red zone defense if you're giving up a long touchdown.)

 

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5.

Washington Huskies (5-0)​

Last week's ranking: 4

SP+ and FPI rankings: sixth and ninth

Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 8.6%

What they did in Week 6: idle

Next big test: Week 7 vs. Oregon

Why the Huskies aren't ranked lower: If USC's isn't the most trustworthy offense in the country, Washington's is. Michael Penix Jr. is averaging 400 passing yards per game and remains the current Heisman betting favorite. Let's put it this way: The Huskies scored 31 points and Penix threw for 363 yards against Arizona two weeks ago, and the reaction was basically, "The Huskies were out of sync but found a way to win." Thirty-one and 363 was bad! The defense, meanwhile, ranks 26th in defensive SP+. That's more than good enough to contend.

Why they aren't ranked higher: The pass defense is strong, but the run defense is worrisome. The Huskies are giving up at least 4 yards on 51% of carries (107th) and making a stop at or behind the line on only 14% (117th). And now they face Oregon, which gains at least 4 yards on 63% of carries (first). That matchup is incredibly worrisome. The UW offense is built for track meets, but can you remain unbeaten after potential track meets against Oregon, USC, Oregon State, Washington State and then someone else in the Pac-12 championship?

 

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4.

Oregon Ducks (5-0)​

Last week's ranking: 3

SP+ and FPI rankings: fifth and fifth

Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 8.5%

What they did in Week 6: idle

Next big test: Week 7 at Washington

Why the Ducks aren't ranked lower: The defense is Oregon's weaker unit and currently ranks eighth in points per drive and 17th in success rate allowed. On offense? First in points per drive and second in success rate. Bo Nix is 13th in Total QBR, and Bucky Irving, Jordan James and a strong line give them maybe the best run game in the country. (Irving and James: 138 combined yards per game at 8.2 yards per carry.) Washington and USC have absurd upside, but it seems like Oregon is the most balanced team in the loaded Pac-12.

Why they aren't ranked higher: As impressive as the defense can be, the Ducks still give you some easy yards -- 49% of opponent carries gain at least 4 yards (94th), and opponents are completing 61% of overall passes (74th). They played one top-40 offense, per SP+ (Texas Tech), and they gave up 30 points. Oregon plays three of the 12 best offenses in the country over the next seven weeks. As with Washington, it's hard to think they won't get sucked into some track meets.

 

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3.

Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0)​

Last week's ranking: 2

SP+ and FPI rankings: fourth and second

Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 9.5%

What they did in Week 6: defeated Maryland 37-17

Next big test: Week 8 vs. Penn State

Why the Buckeyes aren't ranked lower: The Ohio State defense, so glitchy in key moments last year, is allowing 10.2 points per game and almost no big plays. The offense, which began the season underwhelming by Buckeyes standards, scored 37 points on Maryland (25th in defensive SP+) on Saturday. Kyle McCord, easing into the role of Ohio State's QB1, threw for 560 yards with no interceptions against Notre Dame and Maryland.

After underachieving over the first couple of games, the Buckeyes have beaten SP+ projections by an average of 8.4 points per game over the past three weeks. It seems like McCord, defensive coordinator Jim Knowles and everyone else facing pressure this season are starting to figure themselves out.

Why they aren't ranked higher: It feels strange typing this, but ... the run game stinks. TreVeyon Henderson has two big touchdown runs for a combined 91 yards; 112 other rushes from Henderson, Chip Trayanum and Miyan Williams have averaged 4.5 yards per carry. Ohio State is 118th in rushing success rate, and it's creating longer third downs than normal and leading to severe red zone deficiencies (103rd in red zone TD rate). Until this improves, it seems there's a stumble in Ohio State's future.

 

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2.

Georgia Bulldogs (6-0)​

Last week's ranking: 5

SP+ and FPI rankings: second and fourth

Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 26.3%

What they did in Week 6: defeated Kentucky 51-13

Next big test: Week 12 at Tennessee

Why the Dawgs aren't ranked lower: We waited all September for a look at the true, 60-minutes-in-fifth-gear Georgia, and we never saw it. The Bulldogs suffered from constant slow starts and left themselves with lots of work to do. They remained unbeaten, but it was fair to wonder what might happen against unbeaten Kentucky if they didn't show up from the start.

They showed up from the start. It was 21-0 in what seemed like a heartbeat. Carson Beck completed his first 21 passes, and the Dawgs won nine of the first half's 12 third-down plays (offense and defense) on the way to a 34-7 halftime lead. They ended up winning by 38, nearly the same margin as earlier wins against UT Martin and Ball State. (UT Martin and Ball State: nowhere near as good as Kentucky.) We officially know what Georgia is capable of now, and as expected it's pretty fantastic stuff.

Why they aren't ranked higher: They just have to look like that a few more times. We've seen defending national champions struggling to kick into gear plenty of times through the years -- 2014 Florida State, 2015 Ohio State, 2020 LSU -- and it's up to the Dawgs to take Saturday's output and reproduce it a few more times.

 

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1.

Michigan Wolverines (6-0)​

Last week's ranking: 1

SP+ and FPI rankings: first and eighth

Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 25%

What they did in Week 6: defeated Minnesota 52-10

Next big test: Week 11 at Penn State


Why the Wolverines aren't ranked lower: With the obvious acknowledgment that Georgia is the two-time defending national champion and could jump to first if it shows us what we saw on Saturday more frequently, I'm going to stick with the team that has looked nearly that good all season. Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines have the best defense in the country, a genuinely nasty unit that ranks first in points per drive, first in success rate allowed (first rushing, second passing), first in red zone touchdown rate and 19th in sack rate despite rarely blitzing. They also have an offense with one major issue: The backups don't do much in garbage time.

J.J. McCarthy is first in Total QBR, Blake Corum is averaging 6.0 yards per carry, and Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson are combining to average 18.1 yards per catch. They're hitting every major note, and they're beating teams by an average of 37-7. Both the offense and defense outscored Minnesota on Saturday, which is just showing off.

The schedule has obviously been lacking. The Wolverines currently rank 114th in SP+ strength of schedule and will only rise to 63rd looking at the full schedule. But they've played against three straight top-50 defenses and averaged 43 points per game, and the three good teams at the end of this year's schedule -- Penn State, Maryland and Ohio State -- are a combined 0-6 against the Wolverines over the past two years. They have a track record, which surely eases SOS concerns, right?