Question on Closing Line Values

[Tanko]

For you stat guys or anyone else with knowledge of the topic..... What is a good long-term +CLV % in College Football (or NFL)?

Over the last few years for CFB, I've had a CLV % ranging from +0% to +5%. I've been hitting 54-58% of my CFB plays during that time and have been fortunate enough to end up +units (barely) each year. So far this year I've beaten the closing lines by an avg of 0.5 pts and 58% of my plays with a +CLV % of +3%.

I'm not bragging, because there's not a lot to brag about. I'm just laying data out for discussion.

To be clear, I'm talking about the +CLV %, not the number of games I'm beating the closing line. Beating the closing line (spreads/ML) doesn't always mean you will win and vice versa is true too. But, long-term if you are beating the closing lines, you should be winning and result in a +CLV %.

I've been studying a lot on the topic of CLV and I'd like people's take on what is a good +CLV%
Hopefully, this will lead to an informative discussion.

 

[Tanko]

Tagging a few guys who may be into this type of analysis. There are probably others. Please comment.
@KVB @stormtrooper8 @huskers1983 @Franz555 @RRsilver @sharpsquare

 

[aikman.tr]

Lines and price are mostly incomparable from book to book, there is no definitive
" -3 -120". Difference is where u consistently get the best line and price which could be at many books or a single book. Take the huge swing on Georgia Texas. Open -3 Georgia, close -5 Texas depending where u bet. Opening # beat the shit out of the closing #.

 

[Tanko]

Lines and price are mostly incomparable from book to book, there is no definitive
" -3 -120". Difference is where u consistently get the best line and price which could be at many books or a single book. Take the huge swing on Georgia Texas. Open -3 Georgia, close -5 Texas depending where u bet. Opening # beat the shit out of the closing #.

Everything you said is true.

I shop at 4 different books to get the best line and I usually get my CFB plays in for the week on Sunday (latest Monday) in attempts to leverage edges before they get moved as limits increase throughout the week and more and more sharps jump in.

 

[aikman.tr]

Everything you said is true.

I shop at 4 different books to get the best line and I usually get my CFB plays in for the week on Sunday (latest Monday) in attempts to leverage edges before they get moved as limits increase throughout the week and more and more sharps jump in.

Luckily I have Pinnacle. I rarely jump on opening numbers. Dint have much cash to tie up for 6 days.

 

[Tanko]

Luckily I have Pinnacle. I rarely jump on opening numbers. Dint have much cash to tie up for 6 days.

You have pinny. I take it you are not in the united states.

 

[KVB]

Lines and price are mostly incomparable from book to book, there is no definitive
" -3 -120"

Not sure what you're getting at here.

Lines are alwasy comparable, it's a math conversion, nothing more.

 

[aikman.tr]

You have pinny. I take it you are not in the united states.

Nope, I'm a Canuck

 

[aikman.tr]

Not sure what you're getting at here.

Lines are alwasy comparable, it's a math conversion, nothing more.

There isn't a defined entity that establishes a closing number, it's only at the book.u bet at that the "closing" number matters.