Plan ahead for Saturday TCU vs Iowa St. (Check the line & take Horned Frogs)

[Tanko]

Guys,
Saturday is a golden opportunity. TCU plays @ Iowa State. The line should be somewhere around TCU +6.
Take the horned frogs.

TCU View
I expect it to be around a 6 pt spread for Iowa State. Usually Iowa State and Iowa fans buy up the line to give us more of and edge. TCU is a really good team. They don't lose by more than 4 (if they lose at all). They have 4 losses in Big 12 and only one was by more than 4 (Texas). Their last game vs Texas looks one sided but it was tied with 4 minutes left.

ISU View
Iowa State beat TCU in Fort Worth 3 weeks ago but it was close. TCU was losing big early and fought back the entire game to make it a 1 pt game. TCU could have easily won. Iowa State is coming off a HUGE win on the road vs Texas. Expect a let down.

Now, don't get me wrong. ISU is amazing at home (never lost this season) but coving ~6 pts is going to be tough against this TCU squad who is looking for revenge.

Save up some money and put it on this one. Lets see what the line is but I think TCU covers.

 

[theriver55]

GL Tanko THX for the write-up

 

[Wagerallsports]

What peaked your interest in this particular game tank?

Did the line just pop out to you?

 

[Tanko]

I follow Big 12 games pretty consistantly.
The "alignment" of factors (revenge, TCU is good, Iowa fans alway drive up lines, ISU coming off a huge win) make this one very favorable to me.

 

[Tanko]

Preview of data for the game.
Rule of thumb is a good offense beats a good defense.
We're only looking for TCU to cover not win (but that could happen too).

 

[fiftycint]

Big fan of Dixon but I think this is an excellent Iowa St. team...Figures to be a tight game...if its higher than 6 I might bite

 

[Tanko]

Big fan of Dixon but I think this is an excellent Iowa St. team...Figures to be a tight game...if its higher than 6 I might bite

I'm thinking it opens at 5.5ish and climbs from there based on:
1) Iowa fans always run it up.
2) ISU beat TCU at Fort Worth so people will read more into that than they should.

 

[jjgold]

Thanks for the tip tanker

 

[Tanko]

Still waiting on the lines but relative to the first ML posted on the game at ISU -325 it looks like this might open around +7 for TCU.

 

[KVB]

Yes, looks to be about a 7 point open.

Early 7.5 will move off toward the 7 and the early 6.5 looks to do the same.

If anything I think we see more like 6.5 than 7 as the market opens everywhere.

But 7 is showing.

 

[Tanko]

+7 on DK
+6.5 on FD

 

[Tanko]

+8 -110 on Betonline. I got some of that. If somehow it goes higher, I might add more.

 

[Tanko]

Its already dropped to +7 -110 BOL and +6 -109 Bookmaker

 

[KVB]

There you go Tanko, good stuff.

 

[Tanko]

TCU did not cover. Lost by 15.

This was a result of FT shooting.

• TCU shot 50% instead of their avg 72%.
• ISU shot 83% from the line vs avg 68%.

This made a 8 point difference.
Damn. Oh well. On to the next one.

 

[fiftycint]

Never really got within 10.No runs Iowa St is very good

 

[jjgold]

TCU bad game

 

[Tanko]

Never really got within 10.No runs Iowa St is very good

TCU did not play well at all.
I am surprised.

Would have thought they would step up for their coach who buried his father this week.