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Phillies / Marlins Total Sunday

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LT Profits

LT Profits

Joined
Feb 27, 2023
Messages
6,216
Current: UNDER 7 -108 at Heritage

Look for an old-fashioned pitching duel leading to an Under Sunday when Aaron Nola and the Phillies visit Jesus Luzardo and the Marlins.

Best Velocity Ever
Luzardo has always shown flashes since entering the majors, but he is putting things all together in 2023 at the age of 25, thanks to his best velocity ever with his fastball averaging 96.9 MPH and his lethal slider averaging 96.7, leading to a 3.32 ERA with a nice accompanying 3.49 xFIP.

Jesus has lowered his walk rate to 2.27 BB/9 from 3.14 last year while still maintaining a very good strikeout rate of 10.49 K/9. Furthermore, once Luzardo exits, the Miami bullpen ranks second in baseball with a 3.85 xFIP.

Almost Back?
Nola has been one of the best pitchers in baseball in recent years with a career worst xFIP of 3.82 and two sub-3.00 xFIPs the last three years. However, he was off to a rough start this season that had the xFIP over 4.00 and his ERA still sits at 4.30.

Thankfully though, the old Nola is starting to resurface and he was exceptional last time out vs. the best offense in baseball in Tampa Bay, allowing one run on just five hits in 7.1 innings with a whopping 12 strikeouts vs. one walk, lowering his xFIP to 3.86. And he also has the support of a good bullpen with the Phillies sixth in xFIP at 3.90.

Finally, as if there were not enough signs pointing to a low-scoring affair, Bryce Harper is Out for the Phils today with a sore elbow, so go Under in Miami.


I played this at Under 7.5 -113 earlier. one of 3 Plays on my Final MLB Card for Sunday
 
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