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PGA Tour best bets: AT&T Byron Nelson
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Coming off last week's Wells Fargo Championship (won by Rory McIlroy, who was picked by betting deputy editor David Bearman to win at 18-1), the PGA Tour heads to McKinney, Texas, for the AT&T Byron Nelson for a tuneup before the PGA Championship.
This year's event is moving to TPC at Craig Ranch. Sung Kang won at Trinity Forest the last time the tournament was played, in 2019 (last year's edition was canceled due to the pandemic).
Which players are the favorites this time around, who offers good odds and what props are worthwhile?
Sports betting analyst Chris "The Bear" Fallica, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and fantasy analyst Anita Marks offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill unless otherwise noted.
Bets to win
Bryson DeChambeau 9-1; top-10 finish (-125)
Bearman: I know I went with Bryson last week and it didn't work out, but it wasn't a total loss. He struggled Thursday and Friday and flew to Dallas when he thought he missed the cut, only to have to return when the cut line moved, allowing him to get a nice backdoor top-10 and get us some cash back. I don't want to be the guy who missed by one week, and I feel he did enough over the weekend to have me try this again. Plus, this new course is set up perfectly for him. It's long and straight and is begging for someone to just hit it as far as possible. Enter DeChambeau, the tour's leader in shots gained off the tee, tee to green, overall and driving distance. He also leads the tour in eagles, and this course features reachable par-5s and some possibly drivable par-4s.
Bryson's downfall has always been accuracy off the tee (166th), as he is more of a pound-it-and-figure-it-out type hitter. He sprayed it all over the course last week in Charlotte, but TPC Craig Ranch is more forgiving than other courses, which should enable him to take advantage of his length off the tee. Despite hitting only four fairways Sunday at Wells Fargo, he still hit 16 of 18 greens. I don't normally take players less than double-digits to win an event, but I think he should be the favorite, so there is some value with him not being at the top of the board. To me, his questions (accuracy) are less of a concern -- especially at this course -- than the issues the other top guys have (Brooks Koepka injury, Jon Rahm poor play last week, Jordan Spieth hasn't played in a month).
Fallica: With a new course the week prior to a major, I'm going to keep the wagers to a minimum and go with class players. A pair of weekend 68s after the cut debacle at Quail Hollow should have the SMU alum set for a solid week here, as he and Rahm are the headliners after the WD of Dustin Johnson.
Marks: DeChambeau went from the cut line last week at the Wells Fargo to finishing T-9, shooting 68 each of his final two days. He gained 5 strokes on the field in ballstriking on Sunday, and I expect him to pick up where he left off this week. There will be a lot of drivable par-4s and wide-open fairways for Bryson to grip it and rip it this week without finding a lot of trouble. He is first in strokes gained off the tee and tee to green and 24th in strokes gained approaching the green, first in driving distance this season and top 5 in putting on bentgrass over his past 24 rounds.
Daniel Berger 17-1; top-10 finish (+150)
Fallica: Berger's stroke play events that weren't majors or WGCs have resulted in finishes of 10, T-7, **, win, T-9, T-13. That's a pretty strong run. He hasn't played since the RBC, but this course looks like a nice fit to make a return ahead of the PGA Championship.
Scottie Scheffler 22-1; top-10 finish (+200)
Bearman: Last time we saw Scheffler as the hometown guy, the Texas native ran all the way to the WGC-Match Play finals in Austin before falling to Billy Horschel. This course sets up nicely for Scheffler, who is 36th in shots gained tee to green and 15th off the tee, while sitting 32nd in driving distance at an average of over 300 yards. Scheffler is also in the top 30 on tour in eagles, birdies and par-breakers, which are all important this week, as the board might be lit up this weekend.
He has done well recently with a T-5 at the Concession, top-20 finish at the Masters and 29th-place finish at Valspar despite a final-round 74. Scheffler's biggest issue is his work around and on the greens (91st in putting, 129th in strokes gained on approach). If he can be middle of the pack here, he has a good chance of contending in another Texas event.
Marc Leishman 33-1; top-10 finish (+300)
Bearman: One of the better players on the Texas swing and among the best if the wind picks up, Leishman comes in hot, having finished T-5 at the Masters and then winning the Zurich Classic with fellow Aussie teammate Cam Smith. He has had success at the Byron Nelson, regardless of the course, with four top-10s, including a runner-up finish in 2018 at Trinity Forest and T-3 in 2012 and 2015 at TPC Las Colinas. Leishman has won $2.1 million at this event, most of any player without a win.
TPC Craig Ranch is a different course, but like Trinity Forest, it also has zoysia grass fairways, so it won't be totally foreign. He isn't among the top players on tour in driving distance, but he has won at "bombers-type" courses before, winning at Torrey Pines early last season.
Aaron Wise 66-1; top-20 finish (+200)
Bearman: I always like to take one flier each week. Last week, it was Emiliano Grillo, who paid us off with a top-20 finish and flirted with the top 5 on Saturday. Wise won this event at Trinity Forest in 2018. It's a different course, but as noted above, it has the same zoysia fairways. Wise snuck into the top 10 last week with a 68-69 weekend and is seventh on tour in greens in regulation at 71.2%. He is not incredibly long off the tee, but he is 38th in shots gained off the tee and 26th in tee to green, which should keep him in play this week. At 66-1, he's worth a look and pays 2-to-1 for a top-20 finish.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Coming off last week's Wells Fargo Championship (won by Rory McIlroy, who was picked by betting deputy editor David Bearman to win at 18-1), the PGA Tour heads to McKinney, Texas, for the AT&T Byron Nelson for a tuneup before the PGA Championship.
This year's event is moving to TPC at Craig Ranch. Sung Kang won at Trinity Forest the last time the tournament was played, in 2019 (last year's edition was canceled due to the pandemic).
Which players are the favorites this time around, who offers good odds and what props are worthwhile?
Sports betting analyst Chris "The Bear" Fallica, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and fantasy analyst Anita Marks offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill unless otherwise noted.
Bets to win
Bryson DeChambeau 9-1; top-10 finish (-125)
Bearman: I know I went with Bryson last week and it didn't work out, but it wasn't a total loss. He struggled Thursday and Friday and flew to Dallas when he thought he missed the cut, only to have to return when the cut line moved, allowing him to get a nice backdoor top-10 and get us some cash back. I don't want to be the guy who missed by one week, and I feel he did enough over the weekend to have me try this again. Plus, this new course is set up perfectly for him. It's long and straight and is begging for someone to just hit it as far as possible. Enter DeChambeau, the tour's leader in shots gained off the tee, tee to green, overall and driving distance. He also leads the tour in eagles, and this course features reachable par-5s and some possibly drivable par-4s.
Bryson's downfall has always been accuracy off the tee (166th), as he is more of a pound-it-and-figure-it-out type hitter. He sprayed it all over the course last week in Charlotte, but TPC Craig Ranch is more forgiving than other courses, which should enable him to take advantage of his length off the tee. Despite hitting only four fairways Sunday at Wells Fargo, he still hit 16 of 18 greens. I don't normally take players less than double-digits to win an event, but I think he should be the favorite, so there is some value with him not being at the top of the board. To me, his questions (accuracy) are less of a concern -- especially at this course -- than the issues the other top guys have (Brooks Koepka injury, Jon Rahm poor play last week, Jordan Spieth hasn't played in a month).
Fallica: With a new course the week prior to a major, I'm going to keep the wagers to a minimum and go with class players. A pair of weekend 68s after the cut debacle at Quail Hollow should have the SMU alum set for a solid week here, as he and Rahm are the headliners after the WD of Dustin Johnson.
Marks: DeChambeau went from the cut line last week at the Wells Fargo to finishing T-9, shooting 68 each of his final two days. He gained 5 strokes on the field in ballstriking on Sunday, and I expect him to pick up where he left off this week. There will be a lot of drivable par-4s and wide-open fairways for Bryson to grip it and rip it this week without finding a lot of trouble. He is first in strokes gained off the tee and tee to green and 24th in strokes gained approaching the green, first in driving distance this season and top 5 in putting on bentgrass over his past 24 rounds.
Daniel Berger 17-1; top-10 finish (+150)
Fallica: Berger's stroke play events that weren't majors or WGCs have resulted in finishes of 10, T-7, **, win, T-9, T-13. That's a pretty strong run. He hasn't played since the RBC, but this course looks like a nice fit to make a return ahead of the PGA Championship.
Scottie Scheffler 22-1; top-10 finish (+200)
Bearman: Last time we saw Scheffler as the hometown guy, the Texas native ran all the way to the WGC-Match Play finals in Austin before falling to Billy Horschel. This course sets up nicely for Scheffler, who is 36th in shots gained tee to green and 15th off the tee, while sitting 32nd in driving distance at an average of over 300 yards. Scheffler is also in the top 30 on tour in eagles, birdies and par-breakers, which are all important this week, as the board might be lit up this weekend.
He has done well recently with a T-5 at the Concession, top-20 finish at the Masters and 29th-place finish at Valspar despite a final-round 74. Scheffler's biggest issue is his work around and on the greens (91st in putting, 129th in strokes gained on approach). If he can be middle of the pack here, he has a good chance of contending in another Texas event.
Marc Leishman 33-1; top-10 finish (+300)
Bearman: One of the better players on the Texas swing and among the best if the wind picks up, Leishman comes in hot, having finished T-5 at the Masters and then winning the Zurich Classic with fellow Aussie teammate Cam Smith. He has had success at the Byron Nelson, regardless of the course, with four top-10s, including a runner-up finish in 2018 at Trinity Forest and T-3 in 2012 and 2015 at TPC Las Colinas. Leishman has won $2.1 million at this event, most of any player without a win.
TPC Craig Ranch is a different course, but like Trinity Forest, it also has zoysia grass fairways, so it won't be totally foreign. He isn't among the top players on tour in driving distance, but he has won at "bombers-type" courses before, winning at Torrey Pines early last season.
Aaron Wise 66-1; top-20 finish (+200)
Bearman: I always like to take one flier each week. Last week, it was Emiliano Grillo, who paid us off with a top-20 finish and flirted with the top 5 on Saturday. Wise won this event at Trinity Forest in 2018. It's a different course, but as noted above, it has the same zoysia fairways. Wise snuck into the top 10 last week with a 68-69 weekend and is seventh on tour in greens in regulation at 71.2%. He is not incredibly long off the tee, but he is 38th in shots gained off the tee and 26th in tee to green, which should keep him in play this week. At 66-1, he's worth a look and pays 2-to-1 for a top-20 finish.
