Look at the closing totals for the first five games of this series:
Game 1: 224
Game 2: 222
Game 3: 216
Game 4: 216
As I write this, the total for Game 5 is at 215, which means that it has now dropped seven points after Devin Booker got hurt in Game 2. Booker had a plus-4.1 Box Plus/Minus (BPM) at Basketball-Reference in the regular season. This means that Booker is about four points better than an average NBA player over 100 possessions. I don't see how his absence is worth seven points to the total. Cameron Johnson, Landry Shamet and Cameron Payne can carry the load and while not having Booker hurts the Suns, it's not to the point where seven points should come off the board.
Chris Paul can help the Over in Game 5! Sunday was actually one of Paul’s worst playoff games of his career and the total still went Over. CP3 had just four points on 2-for-8 shooting with 11 assists but he didn’t go to the free-throw line and he missed his three 3-point attempts. The Suns can’t afford these types of nights from Paul and he knows this. Paul doesn't have to put up 25 points but he’s one of the few Suns players who can consistently create his own shot and he has to play a lot better. He will do just that! Three of the four games in this series went Over the total, including Sunday’s game, even with Chris Paul struggling on offense.
NBA Pick: Pelicans vs. Suns Over 215
Game 1: 224
Game 2: 222
Game 3: 216
Game 4: 216
As I write this, the total for Game 5 is at 215, which means that it has now dropped seven points after Devin Booker got hurt in Game 2. Booker had a plus-4.1 Box Plus/Minus (BPM) at Basketball-Reference in the regular season. This means that Booker is about four points better than an average NBA player over 100 possessions. I don't see how his absence is worth seven points to the total. Cameron Johnson, Landry Shamet and Cameron Payne can carry the load and while not having Booker hurts the Suns, it's not to the point where seven points should come off the board.
Chris Paul can help the Over in Game 5! Sunday was actually one of Paul’s worst playoff games of his career and the total still went Over. CP3 had just four points on 2-for-8 shooting with 11 assists but he didn’t go to the free-throw line and he missed his three 3-point attempts. The Suns can’t afford these types of nights from Paul and he knows this. Paul doesn't have to put up 25 points but he’s one of the few Suns players who can consistently create his own shot and he has to play a lot better. He will do just that! Three of the four games in this series went Over the total, including Sunday’s game, even with Chris Paul struggling on offense.
NBA Pick: Pelicans vs. Suns Over 215
