This looks like a decent play to consider. Navy +15.5.
The total is 42 so the books are estimating around a 28-13 game. I see this as being a much closer game.
This game will be all about running the ball:
ND doesn't pass the ball well (111th/131). They run the ball well. But.......
Navy rush-D is AWESOME. 7th in the country, allowing only 98 ypg.
Flip the script.....
Navy passes the ball even less. (130th/131). 70% of their offense is via the run.
ND rush-D is decent. 29th in the country, allowing only 124 ypg.
Hmmmmmm..... Lots of running the ball with each team playing into the other's defensive strength = lots of time consuming drives and/or punts. On average, Navy games have 2-3 fewer possessions per team per game than the rest of Div 1 teams. That's a total of 4-6 possessions less for the teams combined. That is why the total is so low and why scoring will be at a premium.
Similar Big Spread Games:
ND has been a favorite of 10 or more 4X this year. They failed to cover in any of those games. They lost two outright. Navy has been a >10+ dog 4X this year..... Guess what. They covered every game.
Finally, ND just beat Clemson... Perfect spot for a let-down.
Line has dropped from 17 to 15.5. Consider this play soon before it drops further.
Navy +15.5
The total is 42 so the books are estimating around a 28-13 game. I see this as being a much closer game.
This game will be all about running the ball:
ND doesn't pass the ball well (111th/131). They run the ball well. But.......
Navy rush-D is AWESOME. 7th in the country, allowing only 98 ypg.
Flip the script.....
Navy passes the ball even less. (130th/131). 70% of their offense is via the run.
ND rush-D is decent. 29th in the country, allowing only 124 ypg.
Hmmmmmm..... Lots of running the ball with each team playing into the other's defensive strength = lots of time consuming drives and/or punts. On average, Navy games have 2-3 fewer possessions per team per game than the rest of Div 1 teams. That's a total of 4-6 possessions less for the teams combined. That is why the total is so low and why scoring will be at a premium.
Similar Big Spread Games:
ND has been a favorite of 10 or more 4X this year. They failed to cover in any of those games. They lost two outright. Navy has been a >10+ dog 4X this year..... Guess what. They covered every game.
Finally, ND just beat Clemson... Perfect spot for a let-down.
Line has dropped from 17 to 15.5. Consider this play soon before it drops further.
Navy +15.5
Navy on the move again.
